[Schefter] ESPN content producer @PaulHembo calculated the percentage of 1st-round picks that “hit” or “miss,” based upon whether that player signed a second contract with the team that drafted them. The data encompasses the 20 drafts spanning 2000-2019. Here are the positional hit rates:
April 24, 2024
[Schefter] ESPN content producer @PaulHembo calculated the percentage of 1st-round picks that “hit” or “miss,” based upon whether that player signed a second contract with the team that drafted them. The data encompasses the 20 drafts spanning 2000-2019. Here are the positional hit rates:
7 comments
This data is interesting but using “second contract with the team that drafted them” doesn’t mean that the guy is a miss. Dudes that are hits often price themselves out of their original team.
That’s an absolutely awful metric to determine hit or miss. By his logic the Chiefs are the worst drafting team ever.
Wouldn’t this “second contract” threshold have precluded a guy like Tyreek Hill from being a “hit” if KC had drafted him in the first round? That metric seems absurd to me.
All this really tells me at face value is that teams like carrying over their offensive line pieces, especially centers, for stability. That and teams move off guys in positions that age out faster before a second contract (WR, S, CB, RB).
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If guys are real top tier hits they will earn big money and the team that drafted them might not want to or can’t pay it. Doesn’t mean they weren’t a hit. This is an awful metric. A better way would be to see if the player got an above the position average 2nd contract from any team.
I hate this stat. It’s so dumb. Let’s assume the Bengals work out a trade for Tee Higgins and he signs a massive contract with another team, does that mean he’s not a good draft pick?
The avg NFL career is less than 4 years. If they want to use a metric based on contracts then any player that gets ANY second contract should be considered a good draft pick. If you want to take it a step further then maybe you say any player that gets a multi-year second contract but it’s still a dumb metric.
Solution to any OL problem: only draft centers in the first round. /s
7 comments
This data is interesting but using “second contract with the team that drafted them” doesn’t mean that the guy is a miss. Dudes that are hits often price themselves out of their original team.
That’s an absolutely awful metric to determine hit or miss. By his logic the Chiefs are the worst drafting team ever.
Wouldn’t this “second contract” threshold have precluded a guy like Tyreek Hill from being a “hit” if KC had drafted him in the first round? That metric seems absurd to me.
All this really tells me at face value is that teams like carrying over their offensive line pieces, especially centers, for stability. That and teams move off guys in positions that age out faster before a second contract (WR, S, CB, RB).
No useful information found
If guys are real top tier hits they will earn big money and the team that drafted them might not want to or can’t pay it. Doesn’t mean they weren’t a hit. This is an awful metric. A better way would be to see if the player got an above the position average 2nd contract from any team.
I hate this stat. It’s so dumb. Let’s assume the Bengals work out a trade for Tee Higgins and he signs a massive contract with another team, does that mean he’s not a good draft pick?
The avg NFL career is less than 4 years. If they want to use a metric based on contracts then any player that gets ANY second contract should be considered a good draft pick. If you want to take it a step further then maybe you say any player that gets a multi-year second contract but it’s still a dumb metric.
Solution to any OL problem: only draft centers in the first round. /s