@@Los Angeles Chargers

[Schefter] ESPN content producer @PaulHembo calculated the percentage of 1st-round picks that “hit” or “miss,” based upon whether that player signed a second contract with the team that drafted them.   The data encompasses the 20 drafts spanning 2000-2019. Here are the positional hit rates:

  • April 24, 2024


[Schefter] ESPN content producer @PaulHembo calculated the percentage of 1st-round picks that “hit” or “miss,” based upon whether that player signed a second contract with the team that drafted them.   The data encompasses the 20 drafts spanning 2000-2019. Here are the positional hit rates:

9 comments

  2. This is clearly a case of people until recently did not know how to evaluate offensive line play in the NFL with the main stat referenced until recently being “number of starts”. This meant O lineman have always been given a longer rope because of course you’re going to start your first round linemen – at which point 4 years into his career he is probably going to have 50+ starts – at which point you are going to re-sign them. Don’t think it is indicative of the actual quality of talent drafted at all and we will see these numbers for O linemen come down as general analysis of the position improves.

  4. Lol, this doesn’t account for players that go get a bag with another team or get traded. By this logic AJ Brown is a miss. TIL.

  5. This doesn’t make any sense and just ignores market value, position scarcity, replacement level talent, and all the other factors that go into signing a player hitting FA. If a player is TOO good, they likely sign somewhere else for more money and are considered a miss?

  8. It would be great if this had some sort of draft position break down. Show us 1-10, 11-20, 21-32, and the overall rate.

  9. I think there is a point to this that people are not considering. I don’t really have a player that I prefer in this draft. I would be happy with MHjr, nabers, Odunze, fuaga + BTjr, bowers, etc. I don’t think any of them just won’t “work out”, I’m sure they will all be great players for their rookie contract.

    However, one part that I think people could potentially be overlooking is that if we draft one of the big receivers and they turn out to be generational talent, we are going to have to give them generational money that we likely will not be able to afford while still putting out a deep team. Look at tyreek, JJ, diggs, etc. There’s so many examples of teams getting rid of their top end receivers. Just something to consider.

    From a value perspective, it’s almost better to just find your OL/TE/QB of the franchise, lock them up and just cycle through RB/WR every couple of years

Leave a Reply