This also has Conklin as a miss, and AJB would have been a miss by this metric if he were a first rounder. Don’t love the methodology.
QBs getting second contract at 46%? Wow I’d have imagined that would be lowest followed by WRs. The OT number is kinda scary.
>I will take 92% over 27% all day
A center then?
This plus I think there’s decent data out there to support the fact that late round WR hit more often than any other position
This methodology is shit.
Odell Beckham is considered a miss by this metric.
Something else that is often left out is that as long as your 1st Rd OL is average, they’re likely to get a second contract.
That isn’t the same as these other positions.
Others have already pointed out flaws in methodology, but I’d be interested in top 10 metrics for this.
It’s 59% vs 27%.
But yeah.
Lots of problems with this. But one of the many things that this doesn’t take into account is that every year, there are quite a few WRs who are available in the draft who end up being valuable role players and starters as rookies. That is very much not the case for offensive linemen, where there are only a few each year who are any good at all as rookies. The fact that GMs know they can find WR talent with their draft picks and know they may have trouble finding OL talent is going to lead them more often to look at the cost of the second contract and let the okish WRs go while holding onto the okish OLmen.
W the amount of wideouts that move teams the stat is misleading. Theres sm talent at wideout basicslly every draft that teams would rather move their wideouts and then draft a new one than re-sign them.
The center number is because only the very very top center prospects ever sniff the first round.
At the end of the day, Callahan’s offense is built around the WR. We need more than one at all times.
Both of the ones we have are older, and one only has a year left on his deal.
I want alt, but if he’s gone, and one of the three top wr are there, we should take him.
When you’re picking top ten, the goal is a blue chip player. Period.
I prefer odunze to nabers myself, mostly for character and style reasons, but nabers is cool too.
So we’re drafting a center…?
WR is one of the most expensive positions other than QB. It isn’t exactly rare for teams to be unable to afford them after they get off their rookie contract (This does not a “bust” make btw).
Also just in general, a team not working out a 2nd contract is an awful metric for what constitutes a bust.
I think that’s also a reflection of the priorities for re-building teams.
You build from the line out. It probably makes sense that teams prioritize C, OT, G, LB, QB, Edge, and DT more than they would CB, RB, S, TE, and WR if you follow that logic.
It’s a very different metric. I don’t think it captures the production of the player very well, but it is interesting to see that breakdown.
I am team Alt at 7 above all, but this wouldn’t dissuade me from drafting Nabers at 7 if CallaRan think we have a real one there and think they can hit on quality OL later. Still think we go OL if Alt is gone or not
we are not drafting jackson powers johnson lol
If they signed a market rate second contract with a different team that should count too. Some teams just don’t want to pay, think Jack Conklin. He wouldn’t count as a hit using the stated conditions.
This not a sound way of thinking they were a success or not. If you look at players like OBJ or AJB or DJ Moore. Phenomenal players that definitely deserved a second contract with the team that drafted them but, they weren’t extended.
isn’t there some chart to that shows long term success based on position based on draft position. I remember edge being one of the positions that was the hardest to drafted after the first round.
you cant deny talent when its present. chase will get a 2nd, JJ will get a 2nd, Lamb will get a 2nd. in those drafts there were busts sure, but just because the overall hitrate of WRs drafted in a 1st round of 32 picks is that low, doesnt mean that Nabers is bad considering he would be the 2nd off the board. so you must specify this stats by only taking the first 2 WRs off the board and if they are hitrates.
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This also has Conklin as a miss, and AJB would have been a miss by this metric if he were a first rounder. Don’t love the methodology.
QBs getting second contract at 46%? Wow I’d have imagined that would be lowest followed by WRs. The OT number is kinda scary.
>I will take 92% over 27% all day
A center then?
This plus I think there’s decent data out there to support the fact that late round WR hit more often than any other position
This methodology is shit.
Odell Beckham is considered a miss by this metric.
Something else that is often left out is that as long as your 1st Rd OL is average, they’re likely to get a second contract.
That isn’t the same as these other positions.
Others have already pointed out flaws in methodology, but I’d be interested in top 10 metrics for this.
It’s 59% vs 27%.
But yeah.
Lots of problems with this. But one of the many things that this doesn’t take into account is that every year, there are quite a few WRs who are available in the draft who end up being valuable role players and starters as rookies. That is very much not the case for offensive linemen, where there are only a few each year who are any good at all as rookies. The fact that GMs know they can find WR talent with their draft picks and know they may have trouble finding OL talent is going to lead them more often to look at the cost of the second contract and let the okish WRs go while holding onto the okish OLmen.
W the amount of wideouts that move teams the stat is misleading. Theres sm talent at wideout basicslly every draft that teams would rather move their wideouts and then draft a new one than re-sign them.
The center number is because only the very very top center prospects ever sniff the first round.
At the end of the day, Callahan’s offense is built around the WR. We need more than one at all times.
Both of the ones we have are older, and one only has a year left on his deal.
I want alt, but if he’s gone, and one of the three top wr are there, we should take him.
When you’re picking top ten, the goal is a blue chip player. Period.
I prefer odunze to nabers myself, mostly for character and style reasons, but nabers is cool too.
So we’re drafting a center…?
WR is one of the most expensive positions other than QB. It isn’t exactly rare for teams to be unable to afford them after they get off their rookie contract (This does not a “bust” make btw).
Also just in general, a team not working out a 2nd contract is an awful metric for what constitutes a bust.
I think that’s also a reflection of the priorities for re-building teams.
You build from the line out. It probably makes sense that teams prioritize C, OT, G, LB, QB, Edge, and DT more than they would CB, RB, S, TE, and WR if you follow that logic.
It’s a very different metric. I don’t think it captures the production of the player very well, but it is interesting to see that breakdown.
I am team Alt at 7 above all, but this wouldn’t dissuade me from drafting Nabers at 7 if CallaRan think we have a real one there and think they can hit on quality OL later. Still think we go OL if Alt is gone or not
we are not drafting jackson powers johnson lol
If they signed a market rate second contract with a different team that should count too. Some teams just don’t want to pay, think Jack Conklin. He wouldn’t count as a hit using the stated conditions.
This not a sound way of thinking they were a success or not. If you look at players like OBJ or AJB or DJ Moore. Phenomenal players that definitely deserved a second contract with the team that drafted them but, they weren’t extended.
isn’t there some chart to that shows long term success based on position based on draft position. I remember edge being one of the positions that was the hardest to drafted after the first round.
you cant deny talent when its present. chase will get a 2nd, JJ will get a 2nd, Lamb will get a 2nd. in those drafts there were busts sure, but just because the overall hitrate of WRs drafted in a 1st round of 32 picks is that low, doesnt mean that Nabers is bad considering he would be the 2nd off the board. so you must specify this stats by only taking the first 2 WRs off the board and if they are hitrates.