We’re on pace for 143. 120 seems like a layup at this point
120?! Let’s shoot for 130…140…150
54-108 seems really optimistic at this point
For anyone who doesn’t want to slog through the article, or who doesn’t understand ZIPS projections:
The answer is that they give the Sox about a 10% chance of losing 120 or more games. Their median protection is currently 54-108, which means they give the Sox a 50% of doing better than that, and a 50% chance of them doing worse. That’s down from about a week ago, when their median ZIPS projection was 59-103.
ZIPS projections are based on individual players’ career stats, heavily weighted toward more recent performances (which is why it’s been dropping for the Sox), and takes into account a ton of variables like aging, park factors, injury risk, etc. Supposedly if you used their projections to pick against the Vegas over/under line for every team every year, you’d average getting it right for 19.5 out of 30 teams. So it’s by no means infallible, but it’s about as good a system for making projections as you’re going to get.
With Pedro anything is possible
Sell out crowds chanting sell the team when we approach the record?
Pedro Grifol is so fuckin slow to adjust. Last year he batted TA near the top all year. He’s just finally now moving down Vaughn in the order after a month of suck, when his ass should be benched. He finally benched Shitintendi only to pinch hit him. And he’s just barely now smart enough to give Korey Lee most of the catching work.
31-131 sounds close 100 games under
!remindme 5 months
hopefully
I have confidence we can break the loss record this year, we’re definitely on pace!
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Spoiler alert: yes
We’re on pace for 143. 120 seems like a layup at this point
120?! Let’s shoot for 130…140…150
54-108 seems really optimistic at this point
For anyone who doesn’t want to slog through the article, or who doesn’t understand ZIPS projections:
The answer is that they give the Sox about a 10% chance of losing 120 or more games. Their median protection is currently 54-108, which means they give the Sox a 50% of doing better than that, and a 50% chance of them doing worse. That’s down from about a week ago, when their median ZIPS projection was 59-103.
ZIPS projections are based on individual players’ career stats, heavily weighted toward more recent performances (which is why it’s been dropping for the Sox), and takes into account a ton of variables like aging, park factors, injury risk, etc. Supposedly if you used their projections to pick against the Vegas over/under line for every team every year, you’d average getting it right for 19.5 out of 30 teams. So it’s by no means infallible, but it’s about as good a system for making projections as you’re going to get.
With Pedro anything is possible
Sell out crowds chanting sell the team when we approach the record?
Pedro Grifol is so fuckin slow to adjust. Last year he batted TA near the top all year. He’s just finally now moving down Vaughn in the order after a month of suck, when his ass should be benched. He finally benched Shitintendi only to pinch hit him. And he’s just barely now smart enough to give Korey Lee most of the catching work.
31-131 sounds close 100 games under
!remindme 5 months
hopefully
I have confidence we can break the loss record this year, we’re definitely on pace!