I’m a data analyst that’s spent 100s of hours analyzing advanced metrics and data for WR prospects. I’ve also developed a predictive draft model for WR prospects that had McConkey as a Top-5 WR in this year’s draft. Here is my analytical profile on Ladd McConkey
April 26, 2024
I’m a data analyst that’s spent 100s of hours analyzing advanced metrics and data for WR prospects. I’ve also developed a predictive draft model for WR prospects that had McConkey as a Top-5 WR in this year’s draft. Here is my analytical profile on Ladd McConkey
11 comments
The model graded out McConkey most similar to the following two wide receivers: Garrett Wilson and Puka Nucua. All 3 prospects had almost identical grades.
Chargers needed a stud white boi! I wanted him or dejean badly. LFG
I agree about him being best outside.
He will instantly be our Z and we will have QJ in the slot, where he thrives.
Oh this is gunna make me bolt up 😳⚡️
I had someone tell me if McConkey graded out similarly to Garrett Wilson then there’s an issue with my model. Here is my comment explaining why they graded out similarly:
“I urge you to try and at least understand why they rank closely. While Garrett has a superior production profile, their efficiency / advanced metrics are close.
– They have very similar Career QBR when targeted
– Wilson has a better career YPRR, but it’s a bit “inflated” with a ridiculous 3.71 YPRR vs Man.
– I weigh YPRR vs Zone slightly higher than YPRR vs Man (for many reasons). McConkey has a 3.05 YPRR vs Zone compared to Wilson’s 2.59 YPRR, which ranks average.
– Receivers with a YPRR vs Zone above 3.00 have a very high rate of successfully transitioning to the NFL successfully.
Here are all the receivers with a YPRR vs Zone above 3.00, in order:
1. JSN 2. Waddle 3. Metcalf 4. Jeudy 5. D’wayne Eskridge 6. Lamb 7. Devonta Smith 8. Skyy Moore 9. Marquise Brown 10. Puka Nucua 11. Tyler Johnson 12. Jameson Williams 13. Tylan Wallace 14. Bateman 15. Quintez Cyprus 16. Marvin Harrison Jr. 17. Deebo 18. JaMarr Chase 19. AJ Brown 20. Chris Olave 21. Tee Higgins 22. Malik Nabers 23. Antonio Gandy-Golden 24. Ladd McConkey 25. Freddie Swajn 26. Devontez Walker 27. JJ Arcega-Whiteside
Then you have Brandon Ayiuk right under 3.00 (2.96 YPRR)
While there’s obvious misses, the 3.00+ YPRR vs Zone threshold is very telling.
**Edit:**
In comparison, here are the top 10 leaders in YPRR vs Man dating back to 2019:
1. Laviska Shenault 2. Marquise Brown 3. JSN 4. Tee Higgins 5. Devonta Smith 6. N’keal Harry 7. Jaelon Darden 8. Garrett Wilson 9. Ja’Marr Chase 10. Jauan Jennings”
Really thought he’d go first round to KC, glad it worked out for us
Did you analyze his small catch radius, 30” arms, and 8” hands? Or his injury history? Or the fact that small receivers like him tend to perform better in college than the pros?
FULLY CONKED
Love this write up OP. AB without the brain damage sounds like a player I can get behind.
Hey, my bolt is surging.
Cool.
So basically like a smaller Keenan. Hopefully will be a great route technician and pretty good hands, but comes with all the injury concerns?
11 comments
The model graded out McConkey most similar to the following two wide receivers: Garrett Wilson and Puka Nucua. All 3 prospects had almost identical grades.
Chargers needed a stud white boi! I wanted him or dejean badly. LFG
I agree about him being best outside.
He will instantly be our Z and we will have QJ in the slot, where he thrives.
Oh this is gunna make me bolt up 😳⚡️
I had someone tell me if McConkey graded out similarly to Garrett Wilson then there’s an issue with my model. Here is my comment explaining why they graded out similarly:
“I urge you to try and at least understand why they rank closely. While Garrett has a superior production profile, their efficiency / advanced metrics are close.
– They have very similar Career QBR when targeted
– Wilson has a better career YPRR, but it’s a bit “inflated” with a ridiculous 3.71 YPRR vs Man.
– I weigh YPRR vs Zone slightly higher than YPRR vs Man (for many reasons). McConkey has a 3.05 YPRR vs Zone compared to Wilson’s 2.59 YPRR, which ranks average.
– Receivers with a YPRR vs Zone above 3.00 have a very high rate of successfully transitioning to the NFL successfully.
Here are all the receivers with a YPRR vs Zone above 3.00, in order:
1. JSN
2. Waddle
3. Metcalf
4. Jeudy
5. D’wayne Eskridge
6. Lamb
7. Devonta Smith
8. Skyy Moore
9. Marquise Brown
10. Puka Nucua
11. Tyler Johnson
12. Jameson Williams
13. Tylan Wallace
14. Bateman
15. Quintez Cyprus
16. Marvin Harrison Jr.
17. Deebo
18. JaMarr Chase
19. AJ Brown
20. Chris Olave
21. Tee Higgins
22. Malik Nabers
23. Antonio Gandy-Golden
24. Ladd McConkey
25. Freddie Swajn
26. Devontez Walker
27. JJ Arcega-Whiteside
Then you have Brandon Ayiuk right under 3.00 (2.96 YPRR)
While there’s obvious misses, the 3.00+ YPRR vs Zone threshold is very telling.
**Edit:**
In comparison, here are the top 10 leaders in YPRR vs Man dating back to 2019:
1. Laviska Shenault
2. Marquise Brown
3. JSN
4. Tee Higgins
5. Devonta Smith
6. N’keal Harry
7. Jaelon Darden
8. Garrett Wilson
9. Ja’Marr Chase
10. Jauan Jennings”
Really thought he’d go first round to KC, glad it worked out for us
Did you analyze his small catch radius, 30” arms, and 8” hands? Or his injury history? Or the fact that small receivers like him tend to perform better in college than the pros?
FULLY CONKED
Love this write up OP. AB without the brain damage sounds like a player I can get behind.
Hey, my bolt is surging.
Cool.
So basically like a smaller Keenan. Hopefully will be a great route technician and pretty good hands, but comes with all the injury concerns?