[ArmchairAlex]Charlie’s new (old) trick, platoon patterns, and other things I’m watching
April 29, 2024
[ArmchairAlex]Charlie’s new (old) trick, platoon patterns, and other things I’m watching
4 comments
He’s back!
I looked at the Statcast data for that start as well. He hit 99.7 mph in the first inning, and then threw one 92.8 in the second inning when he got into trouble. There was a huge variance in velocity all game. In his last inning, he did hit 97 which is a good sign, but he also threw one 93.
I don’t know if it’s a control issue or if he’s trying not to get tired, but hopefully he can figure out how to be more consistent. His biggest issue is control, but he’s only 21 and hasn’t pitched very long so that’s not unexpected.
I get a sense that Charlie is pacing himself. He’s done this for a few seasons where he seems to turn it on for the last few months. Leaning into pitching to contact is a great way to keep his arm fresh for the stretch run.
Great work! I’d love to touch on AJSS’ outing against the Tides since I dug into it a bit and you touched on some great stuff. The velo is obviously the thing that jumps off the page, even if it did dip in the 3rd and 4th, but the bigger thing long term is that he located his fastball in the top third of the zone at his highest % for any AAA or MLB start of his career. That’s been the issue for his thus far this year and the reason he hasn’t seen the whiffs he should be getting yet. 46% Whiff% of his fastball is elite and if he can consistently locate it there going forwards he should get the swing and miss he’s looking for, even if it’s not at that insane clip.
The command, especially on his secondaries, should come with time. He’s lowered his release point by a few inches and added ~3-4in of extension compared to last year, couple that with adding an inch of IVB to his 4-seamer, a completely reworked gyro-slider, and converting his changeup to a full-on splitter (I believe, don’t think there’s been a full confirmation), and there’s a ton of new stuff for him to get used to. It probably explains some of the velocity inconsistency as well and why it’s fluctuating a ton inning to inning.
In my eyes, his ceiling is way, way higher than it was last year, just going to take a few months at minimum to work out the bugs. Once his secondary command is more refined (and it’s gotten better every start), I think people will be shocked at just how much better his stuff is compared to last year.
4 comments
He’s back!
I looked at the Statcast data for that start as well. He hit 99.7 mph in the first inning, and then threw one 92.8 in the second inning when he got into trouble. There was a huge variance in velocity all game. In his last inning, he did hit 97 which is a good sign, but he also threw one 93.
I don’t know if it’s a control issue or if he’s trying not to get tired, but hopefully he can figure out how to be more consistent. His biggest issue is control, but he’s only 21 and hasn’t pitched very long so that’s not unexpected.
I get a sense that Charlie is pacing himself. He’s done this for a few seasons where he seems to turn it on for the last few months. Leaning into pitching to contact is a great way to keep his arm fresh for the stretch run.
Great work! I’d love to touch on AJSS’ outing against the Tides since I dug into it a bit and you touched on some great stuff. The velo is obviously the thing that jumps off the page, even if it did dip in the 3rd and 4th, but the bigger thing long term is that he located his fastball in the top third of the zone at his highest % for any AAA or MLB start of his career. That’s been the issue for his thus far this year and the reason he hasn’t seen the whiffs he should be getting yet. 46% Whiff% of his fastball is elite and if he can consistently locate it there going forwards he should get the swing and miss he’s looking for, even if it’s not at that insane clip.
The command, especially on his secondaries, should come with time. He’s lowered his release point by a few inches and added ~3-4in of extension compared to last year, couple that with adding an inch of IVB to his 4-seamer, a completely reworked gyro-slider, and converting his changeup to a full-on splitter (I believe, don’t think there’s been a full confirmation), and there’s a ton of new stuff for him to get used to. It probably explains some of the velocity inconsistency as well and why it’s fluctuating a ton inning to inning.
In my eyes, his ceiling is way, way higher than it was last year, just going to take a few months at minimum to work out the bugs. Once his secondary command is more refined (and it’s gotten better every start), I think people will be shocked at just how much better his stuff is compared to last year.