(Chart has been scaled to 10s for fit in the graph. So “Yards” have been scaled down from 1000s, “YPA” has been scaled up from 1s, and Attempts have been scaled down from 100s) All actual stats are at the bottom of this description if you want to see them. “Average” was calculated from the average of QBs ranks 11-20 in that statistic. QBs must have had at least 200 attempts to be calculated in any rankings.
Is Dave Canales really the QB Whisperer? I’m not sure, but what I do know is that both Geno and Baker were a lot better with him in the picture. It’s hard to pinpoint just one thing that tells the entire story, but you can’t deny Canales’ involvement. For one thing, both these guys went from journeymen, backups, and outcasts, to bona fide starters in the NFL. They both saw a stark increase in every statistical category with Canales, but they also had only one direction to go from rock bottom: up. Geno Smith had not started more than 12 games in the NFL since 2014, and was only in the role after beating out Drew Lock – not exactly stiff competition. Baker Mayfield was also damaged goods after The Browns paid part of his salary while he took a pay cut just to help push the trade through for a conditional 5th round pick that was never really in jeopardy of having its conditions met after The Panthers cut him mid-season (for those of you keeping track at home, Canales’ ex team, The Seahawks, ended up picking Nehemiah Pritchett with that pick). Baker then ended up at Tampa Bay where he reigned superior over another misfit toy, Kyle Trask. However, the ability to elevate 2 guys thought to be backups, to legitimate NFL Starters, also cannot be understated. The increase in their statistical output is both a result of rock bottom expectations and increased performance.
Perhaps the most convincing argument for Canales’ knighting as the QB Whisperer is the drop in production from Geno Smith’s career campaign in 2022, to his crash back to earth in 2023. The bumpy season resulted in Pete Carrol being forced into an undefined role that will most likely have him roaming the halls until called upon. Smith’s accuracy dropped 5 percentage points, while his touchdowns dropped by a third (his volume stats all took a hit as he threw the ball 70 less times than last year, and the Seahawks ran far less plays overall).
Geno benefitted from a strong run game as well in 2022 which saw The Seahawks ranked 18th in rush yards with 2042, 21st in attempts with 425, and 7th in the league in YPC with 4.8.
In 2023 they were 28th in total yards, 16th in YPC, and 31st in attempts. As I said before, it’s never one thing. Both Geno and Baker also had a strong receiving core that Bryce doesn’t have – Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, Mike Evans, or Chris Godwin would all probably be the best receiver on The Panthers if they joined. However none of their Offensive Lines were remarkable in 2023.
It’s interesting to think about the impact that Canales’ could have on a guy like Bryce Young if he’s able to turn the tide on 2 perennial back-ups in less-than-ideal situations. After a season of missteps, Bryce Young was able to thread one needle: Somehow being 34th in Completion percentage while also 37th in Yards Per Attempt. You’d think with such short throws, he would have been more accurate, but we’ve all heard this song and dance. I won’t revisit the horrors of the previous coaching staff or the abysmal receiving core and sluggish backfield – not to mention that O-Line and our Tight Ends. Somehow the Panthers managed to have a bottom 3 position group across the board on offense after some drunken dartboard drafts and head scratching free agency signings, Thanks Scott, but that’s another post for another time.
If there’s one thing to be hopeful about this season, it’s that the guy currently leading the team just earned his 2 previous projects 200+ million dollars, 2 Pro Bowls (the first and only of both their careers), 2 playoff berths, 1 Comeback Player of the Year Award, and 1 third place finish in the CBPOTY Award (Joe Flacco- resurrected career, and Demar Hamlin- returning from resurrection, finished ahead of him). The biggest difference here, of course, is that if Canales is able to pull off the trifecta of resurrected careers, he won’t be going anywhere this time. What could Dave Canales do with more than 1 year? Hopefully we find out.
2023 Baker Mayfield
Attempts 566
Cmp% 64.3 (20th)
Yards 4044 (9th)
TDs 28 (7th)
INT 10
Y/A 7.1 (16th)
2023 Bryce Young Stats
Attempts 527
Cmp% 59.8 (34th)
Yards 2877 (20th)
TDs 11 (28th)
INT 10
Y/A 5.5 (37th)
2023 Geno Smith
Attempts 499
Cmp% 64.7 (19th)
Yards 3624 (16th)
TDs 20 (17th)
INT 9
Y/A 7.3 (13th)
2023 Average
Attempts 493
Cmp% 65.47
Yards 3577
TDs 21
INT 10
Y/A 7.2
2022 Baker Mayfield
Attempts 335
Cmp% 60 (32st)
Yards 2163 (29rd)
TDs 10 (30nd)
INT 8
Y/A 6.5 (29st)
2022 Geno Smith
Attempts 572
Cmp% 69.8 (1rd)
Yards 4282 (8st)
TDs 30 (4st)
INT 11
Y/A 7.5 (9nd)
2022 Average
Attempts 456
Cmp% 65.72
Yards 3281
TDs 20
INT 10
Y/A 7.2
2 comments
I think with conversations like this it’s always hard to credit one person. Sometimes the QB coach is the one who’s getting these guys through and getting them to thrive. Sometimes it’s the OC/play caller. Sometimes it’s the off season private trainers who are getting these guys to reform their games. Other times it’s the mentor QBs who are helping. Sometimes it’s just the QBs themselves improving because they’ve learned and gotten better just with experience.
And that doesn’t even get into the surrounding cast stuff. I mean part of the reason. Shoot I think the main reason for geno smiths drop in production was because his offensive line was in straight shambles featuring one of the worst interior groups in the league.
I like the cannales hire. It’s just always going to be a deal where you never really know who’s behind the improvement. The good thing though is Bryce is set up with a much better cast moving forward.
Everything is better around Bryce this year and I see a big leap for him.