Underperformance Across the Board – Preseason Projections vs Current Performance


I've been at a loss for words how seemingly every player is hitting worse than they should be, so we can let the numbers do the talking.

Out of 14 players with 20+ PAs, 11 of them are hitting worse than their preseason projections, most of them significantly so.

8 of the 14 are even hitting worse than their 20th percentile projection via ZiPS (essentially the reasonable pessimistic outcome).

We currently only have 2 above-average hitters after being projected to have 8(!!!!).

I just don't understand how the team can all be struggling like this at the same time. Not sure how the organization can look at these numbers and not put some pressure on Turner Ward at the very least. Underperformance at this scale has to go beyond bad luck, something needs to change.

5 comments
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  2. It’s disheartening no doubt. Wish i knew how something like this could even happen. At this point, might as well put Winn at #2, Contreras #3 and arenado #4 to at least try and get those 3 producing runs. No one else can be relied on. We are are anti-clutch.

  3. Guys don’t look good, and the umpires didn’t make at bats any easier this last series. When it rains it pours and a lot of guys are underwater rn

  4. This is the thing that’s so frustrating about the season so far – like how can you fix this? Everyone wants to fire Mo but every GM in baseball would’ve started the season with Donovan, Nootbaar, Gorman, Walker, Goldschmidt, etc. if given this roster in the December.

    You could’ve assembled the roster in a million different ways but it’s just impossible to imagine anyone moving on from those guys over the off-season unless it was for Starting Pitching.

    Which is the other part that’s maddening. I thought the rotation Mo assembled was horrible! Tons of legitimate concerns bringing in Gibby and Lynn as low strikeout aging vets. But they’ve been fantastic. This pitching staff, for all of its legitimate concerns, has been performing as well as anyone could’ve expected.

    It’s the offense which is sinking this ship because somehow every single guy besides Contreras Arenado and Wynn is hitting worse than expected. If only 2-3 of these guys are struggling, we wouldn’t be panicking. We’d say “oh Donny is way too talented of a hitter, he’ll turn it around.” “Nootbaar is hitting it hard, he’ll get going.”

    How can it be that Goldy, Donovan, Gorman, Walker, Nootbaar have all taken major steps backwards? Goldy is the only one of those guys over 30, the rest should’ve been expected to take a step forward entering the prime.

    It’s infuriating. No other word for it.

  5. I’m not even mad about Siani and Scott. We had two injuries in the outfield and called those guys up. Siani seems to be on a bit of an upswing last few series.

    Goldy, Walker, Gorman, Noot are the giant gaping holes. This indicates a systemic issue with the coaching, scouting, preparation. If it was Goldy feeling the age/slow usual start plus one young guy wjth a shit start then whatever….but this is clearly something wrong systemically

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