While Cyler Anderson has been having a great season thus far, it’s no secret he’s been over performing his expected outcomes by quite a bit: 2.72 ERA vs 4.84 xERA. SIERA, xFIP, K/BB rates all tell similar tales.
For that reason I’m not convinced that Anderson would have a lot of value in a hypothetical trade. Assuming he hasn’t regressed come the trade deadline, are teams really gonna be interested in an over performing regression candidate? Teams are smarter these days, I mean we had a 2 time Cy Young winner have to settle for much less than he wanted cause teams did not like his peripherals. They were far more interested in a guy who had never thrown a pitch in the MLB.
That said, looking at expected outcomes isn’t all doom and gloom. Because many of our pitchers are actually underperforming their expected outcomes by a quite a bit:
Detmers: 5.80 ERA 3.58 xERA
Sandy: 4.59 ERA 3.61 xERA
Moore: 6.62 ERA 3.68 xERA
Suarez: 7.11 ERA, 4.71 xERA
You can see the full list here:
So while it won’t be surprising if Anderson starts to regress, our pitching across the board should actually get better as time goes on and luck starts to even out.
4 comments
I think Washington wants to keep him around.
Tyler Anderson is never going to be a low FIP guy tho. He doesnt K anyone and HRs and BBs are disproportionate to that. Any expected stat that is centered around K/BB are going to be skewed. Also expected stats are just that, expected. They are sort of become horseshit at some point as per the underperforming examples. Like we know they are underperforming, we watch it, and for 3/4 it isnt a huge surprise (moore being the only one).
Trade deadlines also arent free agency, there is a sense of urgency for teams and they have known limit in a bidding war. Starting pitching trade class is also pretty weak and there are very few inning eaters like Tyler Anderson. He will go to a team that plays with a good defense or has pitching issues. Watch LAD (save for Arte’s ego) ATL KC TEX BAL as a few suitors. Now what we thing is value is questionable and depends on each person, but I think Anderson has a good haul lined up come August.
if we could flip Anderson and include Rendon for low/mid level prospect I would absolutely do that, even if it meant eating a small portion of what is owed to them.
First, shoutout for coming through with the Savant Stats!
Second, your concerns are valid regarding Tyler Anderson’s peripherals, but, something to point back to is that even during 2022, his xFIP sat at 4.10 over the year and 4.90 as of now, and although the xERA was lower in 2022 at 3.10, MLB defines xERA as not necessarily predictive, but he could definitely trend more toward the middle of where is ERA now and where his xERA stands. Perhaps 3.25 on the generous side?
To your points about the deadline and Blake Snell, trade deadlines always seem to have an air of “what have you done for me lately?”, and I think that could be to the Angels advantage. The hope is that Anderson can stay within what he’s doing now at least until the Angels are ready to trade him and teams are willing to buy, even if it’s for a starter they only need to secure a playoff spot. With Snell, it really feels like the Boras issue was a big component of signing so late, as we saw with the rest of his clients and less about the peripherals, but that certainly is a factor for teams. Again, with an affordable $13 million-a-year contract and a desire to go to the postseason, teams will be willing to work out a deal.