2024 Green Bay Packers Defensive Preview

what’s going on Packers fans Aaron negler here joined by Cody Alexander of match quarters your One-Stop shop for all things when it comes to the defensive side of the ball in the game of football Cody how are you today man doing great thanks for having me on absolutely um you are slowly but surely going through your previews for all 32 NFL teams and you finally got to the Packers I’ve been waiting I’ve been I’ve been reading all the others but I’ve been waiting on the Packers preview um obviously couple months ago we did a very initial look at the Packers defense after the draft who guys you know might which guys might fit where Etc but now that we’ve had an off season and we’ve had some reports from camp and how guys might fit certain places I did want to go through uh your piece which people can find uh there’s a link in the description of this video over at match quarters kind of looking at the defense position by position front to back um and before we do that I do want to kind of point out you have your own metric that you’ve formed and are starting to utiliz throughout a lot of your analysis can you tell people what that is and what it’s about yeah so I’m actually working with I’m I’m on the board of what’s called uh field Vision Sports so we’re we’re a Predictive Analytics platform and and so we’re using like machine learning to do things like that one of the things that I was kind of tasked with is we wanted to come up with a proprietary metric that essentially actually rates the players against the like how much production are they getting now we have what’s called a simple Havoc rate which is just taking you know generic stats and then kind of dividing them by the amount of plays and so it’s like how many how much play so what I’ve tried to do is really kind of make it more biased towards the scheme that the player actually in adding more of a diversity so if you can do good things in a diversity of coverages so let’s say um I’m really good in zone and I’m really good in man you’re going to have a higher grade also it kind of filters out uh a lot of the minimum plays things like you don’t want to have a guy that you know has really good production but he only played like five plays right play a handful of snaps right right so what I really wanted to do was be able to create something that we could evaluate players against each other but make it more apples to apples but also be able to then take that in the off seon and project forward into player evaluation so why are we signing this player why did my team sign this guy in instead of going after this guy um and so for me it was more or less one of those things that i’ I’ve always wanted to do this and so being part of field vision and starting to do that now I was able to do that and I’m using these kind of as a way to uh talk through the The rosters uh in the NFL and it was interesting reading your piece um we’ll start up front obviously with the defensive line the interior out to the you know uh pass rushers but you know you’re starting with Kenny Clark and it’s interesting to talk about Kenny because he’s a player who I think most people will agree as one of the better players in the league certainly been Manning the interior of the Packers defense for quite some time uh but there are stretches where you can point to like almost you know a few games at a time pretty much every year where it’s not not say he disappears but to your to use your term he his production is very inconsistent right and I do wonder how much this scheme shift will help him Devonte Wyatt all the guys up front because they’re going to asked to get up field and create a little bit more Havoc rather than two gapping read and reacting how do you view this Packers defensive line yeah I actually think collectively I think what’s going to end up looking at it is if our front line can stay healthy and we can get production out of our four top guys we’re going to be fine we’re going to be one of the better defenses at least defensive line production wise if you look at him I said it in the article like if you look at him on paper you are kind of baffled as to why they were having so much why are we having difficulty creating a pass rush why are we having difficulty stopping the run and I think a lot of it has it goes back to these player evaluations right of like you have guys that are really good at if you have a guy that’s really good at pass rush that means he’s really good at like shooting the Gap right uh and on the Interior right right and so what people don’t necessarily understand is like with this two gap or Gap and a half technique that you I mean you’re banging heads like that you’re literally trying to hold the guy in front of you as long as possible and so defenses have used these more and more as we kind of have gotten into more of a Zone Centric style of play just because it’s easy like we want to stagnate the line make the running back choose the hole and then we’re all going to fall back onto him uh but I think when you have guys that have had success and really when you look at what Halley is coming from which is that Robert Salah Deo Ryan’s kind of tree of let’s get in wide nines let’s let the edges eat let’s inside guys we’re going to shoot gaps we’re gon to demand devil teams I those kind of things I feel like fits more of what the Packers personnel has than what they were asked to do kind of that Gap in a half Dro into coverage a few times just things of that nature when you look at the edge rushers um you mentioned obviously ran Gary and Preston Smith but they’ve also got Lucas vaness who they spent a first round pick on last season and now they’re going to be asking these guys to have their hand in the dirt more often than not you know you mention the wide n getting out there and kind of creating pressure squeezing the pocket so to speak do you think that’s an easy transition I mean I know Van Ness did a lot of that actually at Iowa but I don’t know about Preston and ran I mean ran again he did a lot of that in college but that was a while ago how tough do you think that’s going to be for them and how long do you think it’s going to be into the season for them to be comfortable in those roles yeah a lot of the stance for if you talk to defensive line coaches the really the big difference between a two-point stance and then a three-point stance is literally just picking that that hand up and so then it becomes more or less of kind of at it’s more at the point of attack against the Run um where you kind of see the difference of where if I’m standing up I can see the back field um if I’m kind of down I don’t necessarily see the back field as well and so that to me is where the biggest difference comes in it’s more structurally what you’re asked to do than necessarily technique wise because I think technique wise it’s pretty much it’s pretty much the same thing you’re just changing kind of width and then whether I have my hand down or not it’s interesting because I think Preston throughout his career has done a really good job holding the edge against the run it’s been an issue for ran as far as letting guys out the back door and keeping trying to slide inside and then allowing big Lanes to open up behind him while he does that switching to the 4-3 the four down lineman alignment and having their hands in the in the ground Etc I’m fine with all that but the moment you said wide nine I got a little shiver up my back because all I could think of was the NFC Championship Game a few years ago and obviously they they were standing up in that game but they were wide right and Shanahan took advantage of them over and over to the tune of 200 plus yards on the ground what’s the difference I mean I think for to the Layman you see the Packers maybe lining up wide and leaving some of these big gaps there you mentioned in your article they’ve had major issues stopping the Run what could potentially or possibly change just because these guys have their hands in the dirt well I think it really comes back to the inside it’s just shifting from a fiveman front to more of a four down so what you’re going to end up getting is you’re going to get less Zone and you’re going to get more Gap scheme like primarily if you look at what how teams attack the Jets and the Texans and the 49ers have it has been with a lot of trap plays um you know or those mid Zone where we’re going to press the edge then we’re going to cut back and so really it comes down to linebacker play I think Quay Walker is GNA have to really kind of develop and then also what did they do in the the draft they went and got two different linebackers so I think it’s just if you read the road map in front of you you can kind of see where they’re trying to bolster that the interior of the of the line you know the linebacker spot but then they’re also going to be asking those interior guys is you’ve got to get penetration you’ve got to produce up front or you got to demand the double team so that we can keep that second level clean yeah and you mentioned Quay Walker we’ll go to the linebacker spot there because you you as you say they drafted Edan Cooper and they’re certainly running him with the ones already throughout the off season the surprise for me I thought heading into the offseason when they made the higher of Halle and we knew they were switching I thought for sure Quay Walker was going to be your weak side backer but so far he’s been in the middle and Eden Cooper has been the one doing a lot of the weak side stuff which I guess makes sense given their physical makeups how do you see Walker kind of fitting in as kind of the central piece of Halle’s 4–3 scheme I think he’s gonna play the exact same role that he played at Georgia which was I’m a blitzing backer I’m an AAP plugger I can match up with the running back when you need me to if you need me to walk down on the line on third down or even on some of these early Downs in play as kind of an edge rusher because I think that’s the other thing is a lot of these teams now you have to have some sort of a fivem main alignment if you go watch I mean go the Lions speaking staying within the division like everybody played them from a 5-1 alignment just because the way that their offense is structured you want to have a nickel on there but then you also want to be able to kind of spread those anchor points out and so I think to me more and more teams yes they’re a four down I don’t think they’ll be as static as kind of the Jets and the 49ers and and the and the the Texans just because half had that college experience and if you watch Boston College they did run some different front structures they had some different things they wanted to do against different opponents he did have like a three3 kind of dime package that he ran out there every once in a while especially like against Syracuse where you’re getting a lot of these vertical stretching plays but it does make sense to me and I and I think we talked about this again and then when you really look at it Cooper’s G to be your money backer meaning he’s going to be the guy that goes to the tight end he’s going to be your quintessential 42 nickel 43 will linebacker who is gonna shade the tight end he’s gonna go away from the nickel in the pass street so that to me is natural Walker was really good at Georgia and blitzing the interior in fact they flipped their defense to being more of a fiveman rush with Walker really being a lot of the times the penet Traer from the second level and creating that and letting him go up against a guard and and kind of or up against the center and being able to kind of you know get free and so to me that’s where it looks like we’re headed right I think you know utilizing his athleticism in a way that and I know there’s been a lot made of this uh dandre Campbell on his way out the door has talked a lot about what they were were not asked to do and it sure sounds like you get you read between the L of some of the quotes from The Locker Room it does feel like these guys are going to be asked to just play more and react more and get after it more rather than thinking so much about if then like what’s my assignment if this happens and then you’re trying to react and it’s all kind of jammed up process-wise in your head rather than okay this is my gig and this is what I do down in and down out and this like whatever the call is I know my responsibility and I’m just gonna go do it I think that’s gonna help Quay Walker immensely and I do think he Li he should if you’re looking at the other defenses the ones you’re name checking here whether you look at the Jets the 49ers obviously have some amazing inside backers but the Texans as well you look at what they ask their backers to do it’s certainly something I think Quay is more than capable of doing you know I don’t think there’s anything I see from any of those defenses where I’m thinking oh that’s going to be way too much for him like I’ll I’ll the where I see the differences when you’re comparing these defenses is up front you know you look at Bosa obviously um but even in New York with the Jets they have some amazing talent up front to control things and wreak havoc that’s where I think to your point earlier yeah you’re gonna have to ask these guys up front to create havoc and keep Walker clean because if they can yeah I think he’s gonna eat I don’t think there’s a there no and I I agree with you like because and that’s what I kind of said was like on paper you have to feel really good but because like the history of what happened the past couple years it’s just like okay are what team’s going to show up are we going to get the team that looks like a top 10 defense or are we going to get the team that uh it looks like a bottom third and that’s kind of that thing of like consistency and that is really you know you alluded to it the modern defense today that’s kind of the the line drawn in the sand you have guys that want to keep it simple they don’t want to do a lot they want their guys to be fast but then you also have the other ones that are like we’re trying to formally check we’re trying to play we’re trying to play defense like offenses are trying to play and so we’re going to match you intellectually that way or we’re just going to go quick and I think if you can find uh that that nice medium spot which I thought like Mike MCD McDonald who’s now with the Seattle I feel like right he kind of revamped the Raven system started putting things into different buckets where we can be M the illusion of complexity but really where our teaching processes are better I just feel like that’s kind of where you’re getting if you’re going to be really simple like the Jets and like the 49ers you better be really really good the Browns are another great example you got to own up front you gotta own up you gotta control it yeah no doubt no doubt and it’s funny because to hear you talk like that you talk about process and McDonald and what he did in Baltimore I don’t know if hle is gonna come in and do something similar right as far as being able to kind of really um give them a different process as far as what they learn right but then how to react on the field because that’s where you talk about the last three years with Joe Barry it just never felt like they had an answer on the field like if they whatever the call was like especially situationally whether it was third and short whether it was uh Red Zone what have you if that call wasn’t right in quotes right if that call didn’t match up really well initially from whatever the offense was going to try and do they were lost it was over like that’s where I think if hle does nothing else like forget the scheme forget all that but just gives the guys process on the field that they can take ownership of and go oh I know what they’re trying to do we can switch to XYZ like but make it quick make it easy and make let them still continue to just play I don’t I have no idea if athle is capable of doing that I don’t know if he’s going to do that but to me that’s a glaring thing when you watched Green Bay’s defense over the course of the last three years where that’s the best defenses are able to do that we see what you’re trying to do we know what you’re trying to take advantage of we have a counter but all in real time right no you’re 100 perc correct when you look at the cornerback group I loved what you wrote about uh Stokes and Alexander because you know Stokes obviously did have a very promising rookie year and then has been pretty disappointing since now obviously has dealt with a lot of injuries coming out of this offseason sounds like he’s right as reain and good to try and reclaim that spot but then you look at Alexander he’s been an all pro uh certainly had an up and down year last year I think after the suspension though you really saw a guy who came to play now he was dealing with an ankle injury but you don’t have to look much further than that interception early in the Dallas game in the playoffs where that switches the whole game right the Packers take that and score a touchdown they’re up 14- nothing that’s the type of player he can be given like what you’ve seen and what you know of Halle as a defensive backs coach Etc I know Packers fans are very excited about the idea of these guys maybe getting their hands on receivers a little bit more being a little bit more quote aggressive I know it’s not that simple but what do you think what do you expect from Green Bay’s defensive backs their cornerbacks in particular under halfly and what they’re going to look like down in and down out yeah so if you actually go by what did the Packers do really well last year if you go by that they actually had the eighth best uh e EPA in cover one and what does Halle want to do Halle wants to run cover one I saw you wrote that I can’t imagine like all of a sudden we see a bunch of cover one I I’ll gladly be proven wrong but wow that would be a a pretty sizable shift yeah now I will put an asteris on that because we don’t really know how much cover one they’re going to run I just know that if you they ran probably the most cover one of any team in college football last year at about 43% so what I think is you’re going to get the similar uh percentages as Joe Barry it’s just going to be a little it’s going to be different right it’s going to just be there’s the difference is going to be the front structure what’s being asked to do up front I don’t think that we’re going to see somewhere where like the Browns now and then now the commanders with Quinn and Wht that are just going to try and run 41% of the time we just want to run man um I do think you have man Corners I think you’re going to maybe see more of it even if it’s something as like a 3030 or a you know you know something a 3525 where we’re running about 35% cover three 25% cover one mostly on Mid third you know like third and and middle Downs where we really want to get really tight but if you look at what they were able to be really good at last year they were terrible in cover three and I think a lot of that has to do with just the kind of like the system that it was it was just more a lot of fire zones which is a lot of holes in the in the the coverage more of a you can still run spot drop but if you’re not getting a consistent pass rush you’re essentially just playing like you would like a country cover four I mean you don’t want to just run just country cover three and not get a p you’re gonna look like what the Rams did like two years ago when they were just like everybody was getting Yak on them right so I do think the two corners I think if you simplify some things with Stokes give him some things early to do get get that going because I mean he is going to be and I mentioned this in there he’s going to be playing for his contract I mean this is a guy that was a first round draft pick they didn’t pick up his fifth year option he hasn’t really played to be honest with you in the last three years consistently Alexander you know he’s got to answer have I fallen off the cliff yeah I can play really good in a oneoff game in the playoffs but can I do it consistently over some of the behavior that he had last year can I have I been able to kind of clean that up and I just think just from and I am completely outside I do I’ve listened to you talk multiple times about Joe Barry in the defense but it just seemed like it was a lot of just chaos a lot of guys kind of just doing whatever they were you know trying to survive and I think there’s always a little bit of a bump when you have something different when you have a different process and it’s this is going to be a little bit more simplified I think with a lot of issues with Barry and i’ I’ve just heard this from several people it’s like trying to run a fangio adjacent scheme but not really knowing the fangio stuff and so you’re trying to mix it we saw what that looked like with Vance Joseph which was just a an absolute nightmare as somebody who’s a Broncos fan it was just a nightmare uh so but when he shifted away from it and went to a more simp she did well I thought that was the surprise of the season to me the beginning of the Season it was like oh everyone’s gonna score 100 on these guys and then he really he did a really nice job adjusting in season Ed some guys around in the secondary so I do think I do think like for the Packers and there is a precedent for okay we’re going to play a little bit more man coverage that’s what we’re good at let’s play a little bit more of it than we’ve had maybe play a little bit more match cover three and not necessarily a lot of just Zone where we’re kind of just watching uh the ball more being able to relate to the guys that were around maybe that will kind of clean up some things that’s where I see at least at corner that’s where I feel like if they can lean into a little bit more of the match principles maybe we can we can kind of cook there well in the idea of actually matching up with wide receivers and having some route recognition getting what they’re trying to do to you in real time again um and just ultimately landing on a spot where you have defensive backs cornerbacks in a position to make a play on the ball right I mean I think the Packers were if not dead last like near the bottom of the league as far as pass passes broken up right like they were never around the intended receiver um something that I think will help them in that regard obviously getting a few more guys up front allowed to get on those wide receivers Etc but the safety position is going to be fascinating to me because you wrote you wrote about McKenna and Bullard um and in your eyes that’s going to be your starting safety combo I think signs are pointing in that direction obviously the Packers don’t hand out the starting job in the off season but I do agree with you I think Bullard is your guy right opposite mckenny it’s going to be fun to watch how much each of them takes turns playing that post spot and playing down near the line of scrimmage because I do think you can ask both of them to do both and I think you ultimately have to right because otherwise if you’re an offensive coordinator it makes it really easy get a couple games into the season and oh I know exactly what they’re trying to do because this guy does this this guy does that and We’re Off to the Races I think a big part of this is going to be predicated on making sure both of those safety spots are pretty interchangeable on tape and I think that’s modern defense I think that now more and more we’re getting to Left Right safety structures um you obviously have guys that are better at doing one thing and so on early Downs maybe you see uh McKenna down there a little bit more I think now what you have with having two guys that can play in the slot really well uh mcken played I I think that’s the other thing like people probably don’t realize but he played enough snaps because of how close post the heavy the Giants were under marale he played enough down that like he actually rates as like one of the better slot defenders in the NFL so you have a guy that can play down and can play back and now you have you can pair him with another guy that can play down and play back and even the the backup the kid from Oregon who’s probably I think yes he can play so if you really go and look and that’s what we talked about when initially after the draft was like if you really go and look at the plan there’s a plan in place to be able to play some to high structures to be able to move guys around so that we’re not constantly I think like that’s the biggest thing thing from like a team like the Cowboys who you know who’s going to be down you know who’s going to be back they can switch it up a little bit but you have that predictability you know exactly what you’re going to get and then they just feel like look we’re just better we’re going to beat you whereas like I think more and more teams are realizing if we can have a lot of these interchangeable parts we can then kind of match guys up hey he really matches up with this tight end better this week then maybe hey we’re playing more of like Hey we’re playing the Jaguars Ingram’s basically a receiver like let’s match a you know maybe we put bowler down there who’s more of a slot type guy like so you get guys like to me it just opens the door for more multi again it looks complex to the offense it’s another package that the offense has to now kind of explore and then prepare for but then for you the complexity is just not there on defense because it’s just you’re moving a guy yeah right you’re just matching well I mean more and more in the NFL right it is about matchups and about trying to find them and exploit them oh man I could talk ball with you all day I love it every time you come on cannot thank you enough Cody um I like I said if you want to read Cody’s piece not only on the Packers but previewing all of the NFL defenses make sure you do so go to match quarters subscribe to his newsletter it’s really great stuff Cody thank you so much man yeah appreciate you having me on thank you

Aaron chats with Cody Alexander of Match Quarters about his preview of the Green Bay Packers 2024 defense.

You can read Cody’s piece right here: https://bit.ly/3VQ8IUz

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