The next wave of Buffalo Bills contract extensions: Shakir, Cook, Brown, Rousseau, Bernard & Benford

The next wave of Buffalo Bills contract extensions: Shakir, Cook, Brown, Rousseau, Bernard & Benford

which players are next in line for big contract extensions we’re breaking that down for you today on locked on bills you are locked on bills your daily Buffalo Bills podcast part of the locked on podcast Network your team everyday what’s up bills Mafia it’s Joe Marino author of go bills and buff run also the co-host of the lockon NFL scouting podcast and I’m your host of lockon bills want to thank you for making lockon bills your first listen every day and a big welcome and shout out to our every dayers you know who you are those of you who never miss a single episode I appreciate y’all being here very very much I’d also like to invite you to subscribe or follow for free on YouTube or wherever you listen to podcast we’re part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day today’s episode is brought to you by Game Time download the game time app create an account and use code locked on NFL for $20 off your first purchase terms apply well folks welcome in it wasn’t that long ago where we were thinking about the Buffalo Bills having to pay guys like travius white and Dion Dawkins and Matt Milano and Josh Allen and Germaine Edmonds all those guys on rookie deals trending towards becoming handsomely paid NFL players well there is another Rising crop of guys that are knocking on the door of contract extensions and my objective today is to highlight six different Buffalo Bills players that are currently on rookie deals that within the next 12 to 36 months maybe 24 months at the most will be in line for a contract extension and factoring in these contracts is a big part of the puzzle for Brandon bean and his roster construction road mapap and these could be some expensive deals and it’s important for him to be right about not only the decision to pay the player but the amount to pay the player and it has to be fair and so I have six players like I said we’ll talk about their individual Dynamics comparable contracts and put ourselves in position to have an a reasonable expectation for what the range of outcomes will be when it comes to their future contracts so let’s do it I guess we’ll kind of break it down like this there’s two offensive skill players there’s two trench players and there’s two defensive back seven players so we’ll section it off like that and we’ll start with the two offensive skill players in this segment khil Shakir wide receiver and then we’ll do James Cook the running back let’s do start with khil 24 years old he actually turns 25 in February and in the case of khil Shakir and James Cook for this segment these guys are extension eligible after this season so when you get drafted into the NFL you’re not eligible to be extended until after three seasons and this is the third season for khil Shakir this will be the third season for James Cook and so this is a after the season conversation and the bills could take the approach that they did with Spencer Brown and Gabe Davis and let that fourth year play out they could do what they did with Dawson Knox and do it before the fourth year right there’s plenty of different ways that Brandon Bean has done this in the past but again that strike zone is coming up to do the deal and there’s always the incentive if you do it earlier it’s probably going to be less expensive but you also have less information so there’s also that uh piece of the pie to consider but Kos Shakir 24 years old turns 25 in February his ejected role for the bills this year is to be a featured part of this offense I think that khil Shakir could challenge for a 100 targets and be you know one of the go-to players for this offense and if that winds up being the case and you think about what he did down the stretch in 2023 you’re looking at in terms of The League status an above average wide receiver that can play in the slot that can play outside so there’s versatility very good good after the catch offers some verticality in terms of down the- field receiving skill I mean it’s a pretty attractive player just kind of spitballing I think that you’ll see khil Shakir have around 70 to 80 catches this year 900 to a th000 yards five six seven receiving touchdowns something in that ballpark and that’s going to put him in line to get a nice little contract I think about two deals and that’s going to be an important part of of this entire conversation for each player is pointing towards recent contracts that give you kind of a road map or a blueprint for what an extension for the player could be and in the case of khil Shakir the contract that immediately came to mind for me was Christian Kirk when he signed with the Jacksonville Jaguars coming over from Arizona he signed a 4-year $75 million contract and that puts him at an average annual value of $18 million that was a couple of years ago a recent contract this off season Jerry Judy after the Cleveland Browns traded for him they gave him a three-year 52 million contract extension that pays him $775 million and this seems like the appropriate range for me I mean obviously you’ve seen the top of the receiver Market get to 35 million right now with Justin Jefferson and you saw alen rosain Brown get north of 30 you saw AJ Brown get north of 30 Tyreek Hills at 30 Jaylen watd 28 and a half Nico Collins came in pretty economic for Houston in the mid 20s but um I don’t I don’t think you’re gonna see Khalil Shakir enter that Stratosphere I think he’s more in this Jerry Judy Christian Kirk type profile and if that’s the case if I’m right about that I’m thinking after this season you’re looking at a contract extension for khil Shakir in the 15 to19 million average per year range that that’s kind of The Sweet Spot assuming again there’s a big piece of this that he goes out and has 70 to 80 catches 900 something yards fiveish touchdowns I think if he Stacks that on top of what he did last year that’s kind of the ballpark that he’s positioning himself to be in when it comes to a contract extension so that’s Kos Shakir let’s move on to James Cook running back 24 years old he turns 25 in September he’s projected to be the bills lead running back I mean coming off of a season where he had 281 touches which is a ton of volume not just for the bills but like in NFL standards that was top 10 he was a very heavy heavily featured piece of the bills offense and I’m curious to see what that looks like this coming season the bills did draft Ray Davis in the fourth round and and it feels like in so many ways Ray Davis um offers a complimentary skill set to James Cook and and because of that because you look at Ray Davis as a guy that can take away some of the deficiency that you see from James Cook you wonder okay how much opportunity does that actually take away from James Cook I’m gonna guess that James Cook is gonna come under 281 touches I’m not I’m not sure much less I’m sure I’m sure it’ll still be 250 but I’m not sure it gets into you know creeping up to 300 I think it’s closer to 250 because of the presence of Ray Davis and because of how Ray Davis has the skills that James Cook doesn’t and so what’s James Cook’s League status that’s important for us to consider when you’re thinking all right what are you gonna pay this guy well I think he’s a highly productive back with big playability as a receiver and a runner right and that’s a good thing that’s a good place to be if you can make big plays in the NFL that’s something that’s very attractive now he does have deficiencies I don’t think he’s ever going to be a good short yardage back yards after contact aren his strength pass protection and then again a guy that’s build as this receiving back and I think that he does have plus ability as a receiver he can’t drop the ball like he did last season so how do you foil that Al together I think that’s what makes James Cook complicated for me and and I think I’ve tried to communicate that a lot this offseason and that’s been met with some people that get it and some people that are like pushing back and saying you know look the production’s the production you know you’re you’re too critical on James Cook I don’t know that I’m being critical I’m just saying I want to learn more about the fullness of his skill set so what would a contract look like for James Cook after this season well you look at these two two running backs that just got paid deals um saquan Barkley and Josh Jacobs they both signed for12 million aav of course you saw Christian mcaffrey just get a big deal but that’s that’s the the tier within the tier right like that’s the extremely good player at the position where you know saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs are good backs but they’re not they’re not mcaffrey right that’s that’s not the right range to consider him and I would say about Jacobs and Barkley they’re they’re far more complete players deals that I think are a little closer but maybe not quite exactly the James Cook sweet spot look at Tony Pard the deal that he got coming over from Dallas to tenness this offseason three years $21 million that’s s million a SE a season the average there my sanders last year coming over from Philadelphia to the Carolina Panthers signed four years 25.4 million that’s 6 3 million per season I think that when I consider James Cook the saquin Barkley Josh Jacobs tier of 12 million aav is too high I think maybe the Pard Sanders tier is too low so I want to meet in the middle I think that James Cook is positioning himself for a contract that’s n to1 million per season unless he winds up being this guy that does push for another 300 touches that has some touchdown production that has even more consistency in the passing game then I think you start to say okay well maybe this is more the Barkley Jacobs tier if he does that this season so a lot a lot on the line for these players right I mean there’s a lot of money on the line and I know we’re talking about a lot of money no matter what but if you’re talking about the difference between 7 million apy and 12 I mean that’s $5 million a year that’s $5 million right that’s a ton of money and so that’s what’s on the line for these players and that’s what makes for these conversations to be quite fascinating for me all right so that’s the K Shakir James Cook part of this conversation coming up Spencer Brown that’s a looming one that’s uh you’re gonna have to decide on that pretty pretty soon here and then Greg Ru so another fun conversation so be sure to stick with me folks the NFL schedule has been released and there’s so many big-time games for the Buffalo Bills and for teams across the country I’m sure you want to get to some of these games and if you do then you got to download the game time app game time is the fast and easy way to purchase tickets for all the sports music comedy and Theater events near you I love the app it’s easy to navigate they give you last minute ticket specials Flash Deals they give you a seat view from your uh from the venue so you know exactly what to expect but my favorite part is the Allin pricing you know the exact price you’re going to pay from the beginning of the purchase you can toggle and choose to see the all-in price so that way you’re not hit with any surprise processing fees at the end that’s the worst part of buying tickets you have to deal with that with game time so take the guess work out of buying tickets with Game Time download the game time app create an account and use code locked on NFL for $20 off your first purchase terms app ply again create an account and redeem code locked on NFL that’s l c o n NFL for $20 off download the game time app today last minute tickets lowest price guaranteed all right let’s talk about Spencer Brown this one’s coming right this one’s a decision on Spencer Brown’s contract will be be decided between now and you know early in next off season so this one this one’s we’re knocking on the door for sure here so Spencer Brown the bills right tackle 26 years old he turns 27 in February he’s going to be a fourth year starting right tackle uh in terms of League status I would look at him right now as an average to above average starting right tackle he Stacks another season on top of 2023 and 2024 you know if he replicates that caliber performance and even takes a step you know he’s really going to be looked at as all right this is a quality starting right tackle right now I think he’s somewhere between all right he’s at least averaged to pushing above average we’ll see what type of ceiling he showcases in 2024 I think there’s a lot of comparable contracts uh for Spencer Brown you know he’s certainly not in this like pan Su conversation who just got a massive contract and deserved every bit of that from the Detroit Lions but there are some players that I I think make a lot of sense to parallel to Spencer Brown one of them being Jonah Williams uh played for the the Bengals just signed with Arizona this off season two years 30 million that’s 15 million a season I look at Mike mcglinchy going from the 49ers to the Broncos a couple of years ago got five years 87 and a half million that’s 17 and a half per Terence steel with the Dallas Cowboys he resigned five years 82 and a half million at 16 a. half million per season Austin Jackson Miami Dolphins their right tackle um kind of a bumpy path to start his career came into his own a bit in 2023 they paid him in season three years 36 million that’s 12 million per and I’ll even throw out Caleb McGary um first round pick of the Falcons he resigned in Atlanta three years 34 and a half million that’s 11 A5 million aav so I think those are all a lot of comparable players but there’s also lot of range there I gave you someone in Cayla McGary that’s 11 and a half I gave you someone in Mike mcglinchy that’s 17 and a half and I think I think that’s that’s a big range but that is the range like I think it’s on the lowend 12 per on the highend 17 18 per that’s kind of where I think Spencer Brown Falls and it’s all about how does he perform this year he’s if he plays like he did last year I think we’re going to be closer to that 15 to 18 if it’s all right you you seem you seem serviceable but maybe not a uh quality starter all right maybe we’re in that 1112 range but I have my suspicions that it’s going to be in that 15 to18 million range let’s talk about Greg rouso uh 24 years old he turns 25 in April still extremely young he’s projected to be a fourth year starting defensive end for the Buffalo Bills I think he’s gonna be in line to play over 600 snaps this year and when you think about what type of caliber of player he is relative to the league I look at him as a rock ID starter certainly an above average plus run Defender one of the better run defending defensive ends in the game and a very good pass rusher the the question is the sack production how many sacks can he get that’s what’s going to tip the scales in terms of what this contract can be and he had eight sacks his second season and was off to a great start last year before he had a broken bone in his foot that he played through uh from week five on or he missed week five against Jacksonville so from week six on he played with this broken bone in his foot and you could tell the pass rushing splits were quite different before and after that so um he’s kind of always had a little like he’s always played through but there’s always been a little something there that’s uh kind of taken away from him and so um I think that his the value of his contract is going to be dictated by how many sacks does he get is he a six sack a year guy eight to 10 12 like that’s that’s what’s going to decide this and one of the important Dynamics with Greg rouso is that right now in 2025 he scheduled to play on the fifth year option so that’s going to be a hard cap hit in 2025 of $ 13.4 million you’d love for that to not be the case you’d love to get in a contract extension done here that reduces that amount and you could push it into future years to give yourself a little bit of cap relief and use that to your advantage as you’ve seen the bills do with other deals throughout the years so the comparable contracts here were very difficult for me to identify um because I think he’s a bit of a unique player but the two that stood out to me as reasonable Zack Allen he signed a contract with the Denver Broncos coming over from Arizona signed three years 45.75 million that’s a tick over 15 million apy and then Jonathan grenard who had 12 sacks this past year for Houston two years ago he had eight sacks and then a couple of quiet years kind of mixed into his rookie deal for the Houston Texans he signed with Minnesota 4year 76 million that’s $19 million a season and so so for Greg rouso I think he’s probably already in that 15 million range and then the sack production kind of is where you go from there if he if he winds up being a big time sack guy if he gets 10 11 12 sacks I think he could push for 20 million but I think if it’s four five6 it’s probably 15 78 it’s probably 18 all right he shows like some big time numbers that’s going to get him in the 20 million apy range so I think he’s 15 to2 million doll as I look at the future for Greg Russo all right folks on the other side of it Terrell Bernard and Christian Benford so be sure to stick with me summertime means baseball the Stanley Cup and more and you can bet on all of it over at FanDuel right now new customers can get $200 in bonus Bets with any winning $5 bet that’s 200 bucks that you can use to bet on everything from footballs Futures to who’s going to hit one out of the park you got some fun bills action you can check out right now Josh Allen Plus 00 to be the NFL MVP so if you think this is the year there’s a nice return on that dton King K this one’s interesting it just came through on FanDuel they set the over under for his receiving yards in 2024 at 775 and a half maybe you think he’s gonna smash the over there I kind of do I’d go take advantage of that I already have actually and uh they have the bills at plus 165 to win the AFC East the best odds there but if you think it can happen I that’s pretty good value so check it out visit fanduel.com lockon and add a big win to your summer bucket list bandel America’s number one Sportsbook all right two more players to get to the defensive back seven players trell Bernard Christian Benford both of them entering their third seasons and so they extension eligible after this year and again will the bills go ahead and get deals done do they want to get one more year of information again the value is always doing it sooner but again you do it with less information let’s talk about it Terrell Bernard 25 years old he turns 26 in May projected to be this year a seconde starting middle linebacker and when I think about his League status I mean you’re looking at a playmaking middle linebacker that thrives in space and and really can cover and be a matchup guy very versatile player can Blitz a little bit he’s a good he’s a good football player he fills up the the box score with Splash plays I mean last year in his first season as a starter three interceptions five pass breakups three fumble recoveries six and a half sacks 10 tackles for loss did it without Matt Milano for most of the year did it without dequon Jones for most of the year and I think that’s very very impressive comparable contracts for Terrell Bernard I think there’s a healthy amount right now guys that just signed this off season Patrick Queen going from the Ravens to the Steelers got three years 41 million that’s 13.6 million aav Aziz alaer uh went from the Titans to the Texans and of course Roberts not Robert solid demo Ryan the head coach of Houston uh familiar with ziz aler in San Francisco he played behind Warner and green law then he went to Tennessee and actually had a good year as a starter turned that into a nice little deal here three years 34 million that puts him a tick over 11 million aav and then Frankie louu went from Carolina to Washington this offseason three years $31 million that’s 10.3 million aav um I think that Terrell Bernard can be a lot closer to the Patrick Queen part of that conversation I I know it’s interesting you might think to yourself well why don’t you bring up traine Edmond’s deal right that was a fouryear 728 million aav I think that was a bit of an outlier contract I think that was an overspend by Chicago uh by potentially four or five million dollars a season I think that this offseason really you saw the money that wasn’t there for linebackers it was a good indicator that that Edmond’s deal was one of those that you just kind of throw out there’s always deals like that at each position group where you could tell that it was an overspend and the rest of the league knows it and it’s no longer used as a blueprint I’m not t is a good football player I’m not sitting here trying to bash him but he’s not $18 million a season he’s not in the the ran Smith conversation uh red Warner conversation as an elite linebacker he’s a really good starter and there’s a lot that he brings to the table that’s rare but he’s not that type of guy so I say that to say I think the comparable contracts that I just mentioned for Terrell Bernard are much more the appropriate range so I think of him in that 12 to 15 million uh aav range uh should he kind of continue the playmaking ability that we saw uh this past season again in 2024 last player I want to talk about is Christian Benford uh I did an entire podcast on Christian Benford so I saved him for last and I kind of got into the contract conversation and I want to do an entire episode on Terrell Bernard so that’s going to come up for you here in the next couple weeks but Christian Benford 23 years old he turns 24 in September it’s going to be a third year starting Corner uh for the bills this year it’s just crazy to consider I think in terms of his status in the league he’s a standout Zone corner and that’s an important distinguishment I think you look at some of these guys like a Denzel Ward like a Jer Alexander and the money that they got they’re different they’re they’re just more scheme Transcendent type players and they they’re more man coverage appeal um where I think you’re always gonna have a little bit of a of a cap on guys that that are predominantly Zone Corners that I think that’s that’s just the reality of it um comparable contracts for Christian Benford I think travarius Ward is is a player that parallels so closely to me uh Christian Benford not only from a skill set but from a career TR three kind of a under the radar player becomes awesome for Kansas City and then he signs in San Francisco but he did this entering 2022 it was three years 40 and a half million um and I think that of course three four years later that’s that would have been a bigger deal and and the corner market just hasn’t accelerated like other positions I mean you saw top end corners and legaria Sneed and Jaylen Johnson get big deals this offseason and they were at 19 million a season now I think s Gardner and Pat certan can push this market up a little bit I’m expecting that but how much more than 19 yeah may maybe low 20s I think that’s where they can kind of get into but I don’t know I think it’s gonna be a while before we start to get to 25 million per season for a corner other deals that make sense to me Carlton Davis just got 14 and a half million from Detroit that’s a very comparable type player kind of some spec specificity with their skill set and for this conversation I want to look at it in terms of percentage of cap um Carlton Davis his deal with Detroit is 5.68% of the cap apy uh travarus Ward when he signed that deal was 6.48% of the cap apy sneen Johnson came in at seven and a half percent of the cap apy so I think Benford comes in close to 6% of the cap if you project the cap to be somewhere around $266 million next year I think that puts him around 15 million apy so I think 14 to 17 million apy is kind of the range of outcomes that I would expect for Christian Benford again assuming he starts he’s awesome and continues the trajectory that we’ve seen already from him in his career so that I hope you enjoyed this this these are the things that you know Brandon being as he’s thinking about the decisions that are coming it’s all right do I pay these guys yes no what does it cost and then how does that affect our blueprint and our and our cap projections year-over-year and how do we make this work um so that we can you know retain our good young players but also have some flexibility outside of that and this is not unlike the position that bean was in going into 2020 something like that in that range um it’s life cycles it’s repetitive and and he’s earned this right because he’s drafted well these are all players that he’s drafted over the last few seasons that wow they’ve become good starters and now it’s time to pay them right this is this is the good problem to have and hopefully you know in another year or so we’re talking about Dalton concade and Osiris Torrance and Keon Coleman and Cole Bishop right that’s this this that’s this drum this ever never-ending drum beat that you’re hoping for uh for healthy team building and that you draft good players they’re good for you on rookie deals and then you got to pay them and then maybe some of them you’re like man I don’t think we can do it and that’s been exactly what’s happened with the bills um and we’re kind of coming off of a bit of a wave and then kind of into the next wave and so hopefully the cap keeps going up hopefully these players keep performing and hopefully Brandon Bean keeps hitting on draft picks all right folks that’s going to do it for us here today on the podcast as always I kindly ask that you rate review share and subscribe have a great rest of your day go bills and I look forward to catching up with you again real soon

Draft, develop and re-sign… that’s the Buffalo Bills desired path for roster construction. With that in mind, which players currently on rookie deals are next in line for a big contract extension? On today’s episode, Host Joe Marino considers what those next deals will be and how much they will cost. The show is focused on the Buffalo Bills, Sean McDermott, Brandon Beane, Joe Brady, Bobby Babich, Josh Allen, Khalil Shakir, James Cook, Spencer Brown, Gregory Rousseau, Christian Benford, Terrel Bernard, Matt Milano, Dalton Kincaid, O’Cyrus Torrence, Von Miller and more!

JOIN THE LOCKED ON BILLS SUBTEXT COMMUNITY: https://joinsubtext.com/lockedonbills

Follow & Subscribe on all Podcast platforms…
🎧 https://link.chtbl.com/LOBills?sid=Yo…

Locked On NFL League-Wide: Every Team, Fantasy, Draft & More
🎧 https://linktr.ee/LockedOnNFL

Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!
BetterHelp
This episode is sponsored by BetterHelp. Make your brain your friend, with BetterHelp. Visit BetterHelp.com/LOCKEDON today to get 10% off your first month.
eBay Motors
For parts that fit, head to eBay Motors and look for the green check. Stay in the game with eBay Guaranteed Fit at eBayMotors.com. Let’s ride. eBay Guaranteed Fit only available to US customers. Eligible items only. Exclusions apply.
Gametime
Download the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONNFL for $20 off your first purchase. Terms Apply.
FanDuel
FanDuel, America’s Number One Sportsbook. Right now, NEW customers get ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTY DOLLARS in BONUS BETS with any winning GUARANTEED That’s A HUNDRED AND FIFTY BUCKS – with any winning FIVE DOLLAR BET! Visit FanDuel.com/LOCKEDON to get started.
FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN)