https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/10/2024-25-mlb-free-agents.html
So I was going through this list and man it’s pretty bleak this offseason.
That being said I do think our roster is relatively intact.
Open positions in order of priority – Catcher, Starting Pitcher, 1B/DH, LF.
Catcher – I think the team has lost confidence in Campy. I expect them to trade him and see if they can get any major league pieces for him. That means we are shopping. Higgy is the likely target, he shouldn’t be that expensive and he likes it in San Diego. He’s gonna be 35 by the start of the season so it’s not like some other team is going to give him a massive offer. AJ really needs to not overpay here either. The free agent list is fairly barren. Not sure there’s a starting catcher that’s worth paying top dollar for in the list.
Starting pitcher – the market is pretty deep here in terms of 5th type starters. The team is likely content with the depth we have with Vasquez/Brito/Waldron. I don’t think they want to start the season with any of them in the rotation though. I expect the team to bring in 2 back end arms that Ruben identifies he can “fix.” I do think Martin Perez was a solid fit on the team and if he takes a team friendly deal, I would bring him back.
LF/1B/DH – What the team thinks of Tirso Ornelas will depend how much they want to spend on free agents. I do think they want to bring back Profar, but AJ isn’t going to overpay for him. I don’t expect a long term deal either. There has to be some flexibility in the lineup and LF is it. Either way I think Ornelas will get a shot in LF or at DH. Arraez will either be at 1B or DH depending on who is signed.
Now who would I go after? There are 2 bats worth looking at. Alonso isn’t leaving the NYM. The other bat in play is Christian Walker. He’s 34 and will be looking for a multi year deal. His age kinda scares me. He would fit on this team though. I do think we are likely priced out on all the big bats this offseason.
Honestly I wouldn’t hate if we run it back a bit and bring Peralta and Solano back. Give them some incentives, I don’t think they will get much above the minimum at their age.
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Yusei Kikuchi for SP, Higgy for catcher, Profar on smaller deal, Hoskins if he declines his option. Scott is probably out our price range but I have faith that one of Matsui or Peralta bounces back. Also our bullpen depth in the farm with Jakob, Cosgrove, and Reynolds is pretty good compared to most teams
I would get a higher end SP(snell, fried, etc). That’s just me, and a back end SP(perez, lorenzen, etc). The rest just depends what kinda contract pro and higgy want. 1st base will be tricky but AJ is best when he gets vreative . Also, I definitely would keep solano, the guy is older but he hasn’t shown that his batting skills have diminished. Career numbers are very solid, 2-3 million for a very solid bench/depth piece.
Gonna be a LONG off-season with all the FA and contract posts. Already feel not enough posts about what was accomplished.
Shane Bieber could be a buy low possibility at SP. Coming off an injury so shouldn’t break the bank and has experience working with Niebla.
Unpopular opinion but I think we should 1) trade Arraez and use some of that money toward SP(Fried), 2) trade Suarez and sign Scott long-term, 3) decline Kim’s option, 4) let Profar walk unless he signs a very team-friendly deal, and 4) let Higgy walk unless he signs a team-friendly deal.
I don’t think we should work on a Merrill extension yet, let’s see how he does his sophomore season. I do think we should work on a King extension this offseason. I also think there are other good options at C (Diaz, Jansen), and a back-end starter (Lorenzen) would be nice. We can probably free up some more salary by trading Matsui, and I think Wandy Peralta opts back-in and has a bounce back season.
Quality not quantity this offseason!
Niebla’s contract is also up, which to me seems a top priority over much of the on field talent. I hope he wants to stay here and make it easy.
AJ going to have to get cooking with some moves in the offseason because we aren’t in a position to really sign anyone decent.
I don’t think I realized how bad our CBT number was until I just looked.
Tirso is on the roster actually, doesn’t mean much tho
A full time vet LF with good defense and pop and move profar to first I like. Probably cheaper than any 1b we’d want to add
ALL IN ON ROKI
I don’t think Alonso in NYM is certain
As much as I would love to add, I think we need a plan for Cronenworth. His contract is not the best for the production we get. I know he had injuries, but there are good people out there than can provide greater value to the club.
That being said, higgy needs to be resigned and we need another SP. We got lucky solano and Peralta were effective, but they cannot be our everyday.
Padres Projected 2025 payroll: $209M (that’s full roster according to Sportrac, include all arbitration and pre-arbitration) I believe the next CBT threshold is $241M, so about $32M to play with. This is just assuming they want to stay under that $241M tier.
We would still be playing for the WS right now if we had traded for Jarren Duran at the beginning of 2024, Preller couldn’t get it done!! The prospects it cost to get him then was probably the same as getting Arreaz. With that said, we need a true leadoff like Duran (he will only be ARB1 in 2025 and projected @$4.1M). I would try to trade for him in 2025, offer Arreaz (-$13M), Campy (-$1.86M), W. Peralta (-$4.25M) and any prospects not names Salas. Probably must include DeVries.
Players we must sign:
Higgy/C @2y/$7M ($3.5M to 2025 cap)
Solano $1.5M with incentives
D. Peralta $1.5M with incentives
Players we could sign:
Profar/DH/OF @3y/$21M ($7M to 2025)
Snell @6y/$150M ($25M)
Total added to 2025 $38.5M + Duran ($4.1M) about (+$42.6M)
Players should let go:
Kim (-$7M)
If we trade away Arreaz/Campy/W.Peralta/(DeVries) save total (-$19M)
Kim (-$7M)
2025 payroll projected (-$32M) under the CBT $241M.
$26M + $32M = $58M to work with.
There’s still some holes, but this is what roster would look like.
2025 roster:
SP: Darvish/King/Cease/Snell; (one of these guys: Vasquez/Waldron/Brito)
RP: Suarez/Adam/Estrada/Morejon/Hoeing/Jacobs/Reynolds/Cosgrove/Kolek/Gillaspie/Patino and Matsui (with a FULL no trade clause!!!)
OF: Duran/Merrill/Tatis; Profar/D.Peralta
C: Higgy/Sullivan
INF: Machado/Bogaerts/Cronenworth/Solano; Ornelas/Wade
Minors: Lockridge/Johnson/Rosario.
LINEUP:
Duran LF (L)
Tatis RF
Merrill CF (L)
Machado 3B
Profar DH (S)
Bogaerts SS
Cronenworth 2B (L)
Solano 1B
Higgy C
Subs:
Profar as OF/1B
Peralta OF/DH (L)
Ornelas 1B (L)
Sullivan C (L)
The main goal is to get an elite leadoff hitter (contact and OBP, excellent bunting skills and speed) like Duran and getting rid of Arreaz will allow that financially.
We could also sign a mid tier 5th SP, 1B and getting Kim back (maybe @4y/$44M).