His shots nasty I just wish he would shoot more tbh
Nice breakdown.
Hell yeah, Timo time baby
It’s interesting – before he came here some people didn’t want the trade to happen because “Timo doesn’t play defense.” Really interesting to see him be a two-way winger, defensively responsible, AND drive play.
Saw elsewhere that he has a pretty low shooting percentage – 9.4%, per moneypuck. Last year he was shooting at over 13% – if he were at that shooting percentage this year, he’d have 21 goals (which would put him on pace for over 30). If we take shooting percentage as a decent proxy for luck, well – then he’s unlucky.
Yeah, he’s not putting up as many goals as you’d like, but he’s the kind of player you want.
What an awesome breakdown. Present company excluded for the most part but our fans are so one dimensional and unable to actually judge what a good hockey player looks like. It gets so old really quick.
Fuck anyone who jumps on the hate bandwagon for specific players. Toxic entitled negative behavior.
Love you Meier
Anyone who thinks he’s not producing must be just checking the box score and not watching the game.
He’s been great in both zones and created some really great chances, he’s just had bad puck luck with his shots
I’m not gonna dive into this too much because I don’t care enough, but I have a suspicion there’s been some cherry picking of stats.
His shot attempts are down 1 full attempt, which is 82 shots attempts across a season. Not a huge deal, but his actual shots per game are down by like 60%, so they’re landing less, which is why I suspect he chose that stat specifically. Meier could attempt 20 shots from our own goal line, it doesn’t mean he’s the same player – it’s not working like it was.
4.23 actual shots / game his last full year in SJ, 4.47 before the trade in SJ, 3.4 after the trade in NJ, and 2.83 / game this year.
I’m sure I could find other problems with these stats, like the fact that he’s a 9m player playing against second and third lines, but I don’t hate Meier. I have him on my fantasy team. This just seems like a rose coloured look on the situation. I wasn’t for the trade either, all things considered so maybe I’m biased.
It’s an interesting subject, so I’m open to debate. I don’t think Meier is as bad as some in this sub think, but I don’t think he’s been a complete game breaker like these stats indicate.
I also suspect he might be injured this year too. There was a streak last year starting i think against Arizona or LA where he looked like an entirely different player. He had like 11 shots on net and was on fire to finish the season.
Meier is playing quite well overall.
It would be nice if Keefe could think about ways to boost his scoring. But that does not mean there is anything wrong with Meier.
Big Timo fan. He actually uses his size somewhat and throws his weight around out there. What others don’t seem to talk about too is that he is so strong on the puck and hard to move off the puck. It’s very valuable skill that the Devils don’t have too much of.
I’m 100% team Timo. The dude is super difficult to play against. He has size and speed and is tenacious in all 3 zones. One think that’s driving me nuts this season is the number of posts/crossbars he’s hit. It seems like twice per game, he creates space for himself, rips a shot that beats the tendy clean, and rings the iron.
Can someone do this breakdown on Mercer? Dude has fell off an offensive cliff it seems. Started around last season.
Numbers don’t lie, love that data!
Without having to dive into the cesspool that is Twitter, I’d like to grab a big tub of popcorn and see what momos tried to refute anything JP said.
Give me fuel, give me fire…
Selfish ass fan base sometimes man. Dragging a player that a good majority of teams would love to have.
Really enjoying the Devils Advocates substack. Until (if?) we eve get a true beat reporter again, Infernal Access and the Hockey Writers at least helps me understand what I’m seeing a little more.
Anyone dogging Timo this year hasn’t been watching the games
Timo TIMEEE!
Feel the rhythm! Feel the rhyme! Get on up,it’s Timo time!
#FUCKEN TIMO TIME BBY
He’s playing average I’d say. One critique is he’s not a consistent goal scorer. He’s had 3 stretches of 5 games without a goal, one of which was 11 games long. Same with assists 2 5 game droughts and an 11.
So being paid nearly $9 million, you would kinda hope he was more consistent and closer to being a point per game play driver.
Tldr: Meier is certainly one of the least issues this team has. Is he overpaid for 9m? His production might suggest that, his overall impact says no.
Has he even gotten a chance on pp1 yet?
I’m fine with defending Timo. I never thought timo was a top elite tier scorer. He’s generally fine. Last year his defense fell off analytically and was hurt, but had a really good second half offensively. Now he’s just generally good all around, not spectacular. I’m not in love with the narrative of always blaming the coach for everyone(Gusev, Boqvist, Holtz). But Timo should be optimized more and probably be ripping shots on the wing for the PP.
However. people use the data to defend players and then ignore the data for others. If you want to go full data, then go full data for everyone. Let’s go with the data for Mercer then too. Not everybody on the squad can’t be an issue or we’d be 57-0. It can’t be “well it’s not this guy” for everyone and then blame just Bastian who barely impacts the game either way. Next time they show up flat, let’s dig into it.
Timos points totals are underwhelming for a guy we’re paying 8.8. But it’s clear we are a much better team with him in the lineup than without
Thank you for putting this together. I’m a huge Timo supporter. Tired of everyone bashing him. Anybody who does is more of a casual fan that doesn’t break the game down properly, isn’t always about goals and assists. Also doesn’t help when you don’t get any PP time and getting mish mosh line partners since Nico got hurt
Damn. You convinced me.
That’s cool and all but…. nah son. He don’t pass the eye test
I am one of the guys dragging Timo through the mud, and I would consider myself a fancy stats guy. However, he is the highest paid forward on the team and when the team needed him most in this last stretch he went invisible. He had 6 points in his last 10 and only 1 goal.
Ppl go “oh well he gets no PP1 time” but he had his chance to be on PP1 before Noeson beat him out. He didn’t do a good enough job consistently getting to the front of the net or winning pucks back. That’s why he’s on PP2, because he’s better as a 1 time threat, except Bratt and Hughes are both better than him on the half wall so he isn’t replacing them.
I’m not saying he’s a bad player, I’m saying they aren’t getting enough out of him, especially when Nico went down. He’s the highest paid forward on the team and he needs to play like he belongs in a class with Bratt and Hughes and right now he’s not there.
Unfortunately, no NHL game has ever been decided by expected goals.
I love Timo. He has so many spurts of greatness. I’m happy there’s some good advanced stats about his play.
But, bottom line, counting stats *do* matter when you’re the highest played player on the team. Nearly 9 million a year and on pace for 55 points. Just need to see more.
Love me some Timo Time, but just from watching games his finishing just isn’t there every night. I could be wrong but he drives so much offense for us yet he gets hate for no reason.
I’m so glad someone said because watching Timo he looks great even if he’s not scoring. If you look at the subreddit, God it’s like he kicked a puppy.
Timo looks great and is playing great. Everyone was expecting him to be a 40-45 goal scorer which he’s not going to be. High 30s on this team which is fine cause you put two lines out there who can give you great chances every night.
He’s healed up and skating well. I’m happy with him on the team and how he’s playing
I’m glad someone pulled the stats to defend him. You also have to realize that Timo is now sharing time with more elite forwards than he was at San Jose. You’ve got Jack, Nico, Bratt, etc. that he’s competing with for time, shots, chances, etc.
This is why advanced stats are dangerous. He’s not looking at anything other than what the stats are telling him.
Because this is all impressive work. This is an amazing deep dive that obviously took some time and effort
It highlights that he is the same player as he was in San Jose.
But if you read between the lines it also shows you why we’re all frustrated with Timo at times.
Because it shows that he’s one of the best play drivers on offense in the league. It shows he creates the most chances on the team….. so then why does he have only 15 goals?
His expected goals are high. His chance generation is exceptional, but he is not because he just can’t finish at the same rate as Nico, Jack, Bratt or all the other players this X post highlighted.
He’s got the same expected goals for and generates chances at an elite level, but those other players will end up with twice as many goals and 30-40 pts more.
We aren’t paying him 9 mil a season to create chances. We’re paying him to FINISH scoring chances.
37 comments
There’s 10 slides and an article. Linked [here.](https://open.substack.com/pub/njdevilsadvocates/p/on-timo-meiers-unfair-treatment-in?r=18unih&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true)
His shots nasty I just wish he would shoot more tbh
Nice breakdown.
Hell yeah, Timo time baby
It’s interesting – before he came here some people didn’t want the trade to happen because “Timo doesn’t play defense.” Really interesting to see him be a two-way winger, defensively responsible, AND drive play.
Saw elsewhere that he has a pretty low shooting percentage – 9.4%, per moneypuck. Last year he was shooting at over 13% – if he were at that shooting percentage this year, he’d have 21 goals (which would put him on pace for over 30). If we take shooting percentage as a decent proxy for luck, well – then he’s unlucky.
Yeah, he’s not putting up as many goals as you’d like, but he’s the kind of player you want.
What an awesome breakdown. Present company excluded for the most part but our fans are so one dimensional and unable to actually judge what a good hockey player looks like. It gets so old really quick.
Fuck anyone who jumps on the hate bandwagon for specific players. Toxic entitled negative behavior.
Love you Meier
Anyone who thinks he’s not producing must be just checking the box score and not watching the game.
He’s been great in both zones and created some really great chances, he’s just had bad puck luck with his shots
I’m not gonna dive into this too much because I don’t care enough, but I have a suspicion there’s been some cherry picking of stats.
His shot attempts are down 1 full attempt, which is 82 shots attempts across a season. Not a huge deal, but his actual shots per game are down by like 60%, so they’re landing less, which is why I suspect he chose that stat specifically. Meier could attempt 20 shots from our own goal line, it doesn’t mean he’s the same player – it’s not working like it was.
4.23 actual shots / game his last full year in SJ, 4.47 before the trade in SJ, 3.4 after the trade in NJ, and 2.83 / game this year.
I’m sure I could find other problems with these stats, like the fact that he’s a 9m player playing against second and third lines, but I don’t hate Meier. I have him on my fantasy team. This just seems like a rose coloured look on the situation. I wasn’t for the trade either, all things considered so maybe I’m biased.
It’s an interesting subject, so I’m open to debate. I don’t think Meier is as bad as some in this sub think, but I don’t think he’s been a complete game breaker like these stats indicate.
I also suspect he might be injured this year too. There was a streak last year starting i think against Arizona or LA where he looked like an entirely different player. He had like 11 shots on net and was on fire to finish the season.
Meier is playing quite well overall.
It would be nice if Keefe could think about ways to boost his scoring. But that does not mean there is anything wrong with Meier.
Big Timo fan. He actually uses his size somewhat and throws his weight around out there. What others don’t seem to talk about too is that he is so strong on the puck and hard to move off the puck. It’s very valuable skill that the Devils don’t have too much of.
I’m 100% team Timo. The dude is super difficult to play against. He has size and speed and is tenacious in all 3 zones. One think that’s driving me nuts this season is the number of posts/crossbars he’s hit. It seems like twice per game, he creates space for himself, rips a shot that beats the tendy clean, and rings the iron.
Can someone do this breakdown on Mercer? Dude has fell off an offensive cliff it seems. Started around last season.
Numbers don’t lie, love that data!
Without having to dive into the cesspool that is Twitter, I’d like to grab a big tub of popcorn and see what momos tried to refute anything JP said.
Give me fuel, give me fire…
Selfish ass fan base sometimes man. Dragging a player that a good majority of teams would love to have.
Really enjoying the Devils Advocates substack. Until (if?) we eve get a true beat reporter again, Infernal Access and the Hockey Writers at least helps me understand what I’m seeing a little more.
Anyone dogging Timo this year hasn’t been watching the games
Timo TIMEEE!
Feel the rhythm! Feel the rhyme! Get on up,it’s Timo time!
#FUCKEN TIMO TIME BBY
He’s playing average I’d say. One critique is he’s not a consistent goal scorer. He’s had 3 stretches of 5 games without a goal, one of which was 11 games long. Same with assists 2 5 game droughts and an 11.
So being paid nearly $9 million, you would kinda hope he was more consistent and closer to being a point per game play driver.
Tldr: Meier is certainly one of the least issues this team has. Is he overpaid for 9m? His production might suggest that, his overall impact says no.
Has he even gotten a chance on pp1 yet?
I’m fine with defending Timo. I never thought timo was a top elite tier scorer. He’s generally fine. Last year his defense fell off analytically and was hurt, but had a really good second half offensively. Now he’s just generally good all around, not spectacular. I’m not in love with the narrative of always blaming the coach for everyone(Gusev, Boqvist, Holtz). But Timo should be optimized more and probably be ripping shots on the wing for the PP.
However. people use the data to defend players and then ignore the data for others. If you want to go full data, then go full data for everyone. Let’s go with the data for Mercer then too. Not everybody on the squad can’t be an issue or we’d be 57-0. It can’t be “well it’s not this guy” for everyone and then blame just Bastian who barely impacts the game either way. Next time they show up flat, let’s dig into it.
Timos points totals are underwhelming for a guy we’re paying 8.8. But it’s clear we are a much better team with him in the lineup than without
Thank you for putting this together. I’m a huge Timo supporter. Tired of everyone bashing him. Anybody who does is more of a casual fan that doesn’t break the game down properly, isn’t always about goals and assists. Also doesn’t help when you don’t get any PP time and getting mish mosh line partners since Nico got hurt
Damn. You convinced me.
That’s cool and all but…. nah son. He don’t pass the eye test
I am one of the guys dragging Timo through the mud, and I would consider myself a fancy stats guy. However, he is the highest paid forward on the team and when the team needed him most in this last stretch he went invisible. He had 6 points in his last 10 and only 1 goal.
Ppl go “oh well he gets no PP1 time” but he had his chance to be on PP1 before Noeson beat him out. He didn’t do a good enough job consistently getting to the front of the net or winning pucks back. That’s why he’s on PP2, because he’s better as a 1 time threat, except Bratt and Hughes are both better than him on the half wall so he isn’t replacing them.
I’m not saying he’s a bad player, I’m saying they aren’t getting enough out of him, especially when Nico went down. He’s the highest paid forward on the team and he needs to play like he belongs in a class with Bratt and Hughes and right now he’s not there.
Unfortunately, no NHL game has ever been decided by expected goals.
I love Timo. He has so many spurts of greatness. I’m happy there’s some good advanced stats about his play.
But, bottom line, counting stats *do* matter when you’re the highest played player on the team. Nearly 9 million a year and on pace for 55 points. Just need to see more.
Love me some Timo Time, but just from watching games his finishing just isn’t there every night. I could be wrong but he drives so much offense for us yet he gets hate for no reason.
I’m so glad someone said because watching Timo he looks great even if he’s not scoring. If you look at the subreddit, God it’s like he kicked a puppy.
Timo looks great and is playing great. Everyone was expecting him to be a 40-45 goal scorer which he’s not going to be. High 30s on this team which is fine cause you put two lines out there who can give you great chances every night.
He’s healed up and skating well. I’m happy with him on the team and how he’s playing
I’m glad someone pulled the stats to defend him. You also have to realize that Timo is now sharing time with more elite forwards than he was at San Jose. You’ve got Jack, Nico, Bratt, etc. that he’s competing with for time, shots, chances, etc.
This is why advanced stats are dangerous. He’s not looking at anything other than what the stats are telling him.
Because this is all impressive work. This is an amazing deep dive that obviously took some time and effort
It highlights that he is the same player as he was in San Jose.
But if you read between the lines it also shows you why we’re all frustrated with Timo at times.
Because it shows that he’s one of the best play drivers on offense in the league. It shows he creates the most chances on the team….. so then why does he have only 15 goals?
His expected goals are high. His chance generation is exceptional, but he is not because he just can’t finish at the same rate as Nico, Jack, Bratt or all the other players this X post highlighted.
He’s got the same expected goals for and generates chances at an elite level, but those other players will end up with twice as many goals and 30-40 pts more.
We aren’t paying him 9 mil a season to create chances. We’re paying him to FINISH scoring chances.