What’s the Best Path Forward for the Preds?

What’s the Best Path Forward for the Preds?

Welcome back. All right, let us discuss the Nashville Predators and the season that was had. Uh when I was talking about which teams were disappointments not too long ago, um Nashville was high on the list and there are those that will say Nashville was the biggest disappointment. The thing is there were those that called them falling out of the playoffs. I don’t think anybody called the kind of season that they had as having been on the way, but uh they went from a record of 4730 and five for 99 points, which I think is the same record as Carolina had this year. Uh and they dropped to 30, 44, and 8, 68 points. That is a 31 point drop from the year before. And people generally didn’t see this coming. This was a team that had been top 10 in the NHL last season and no reason to think they wouldn’t be this year really cuz they added Marceso. Well, Maraso’s goal scoring dropped off 78 games, 21 goals, 35 assists, 56 points. Not the worst cap hit at $5.5 million till 2029, but he is trending in the wrong direction. Uh then there’s Steven Stamos. After many years in Tampa, he finally goes to a new organization and he had his struggles. This does happen. 82 games, 27 goals, 26 assists, 53 points, $8 million cap hit until 2028. And so Stamco’s had his his struggles during this season. I’m sure that he will bank on being able to bounce back next year, but once players are in their mid30s, that is not a guarantee. Uh Brady Sheay, 82 games, 10 goals, 23 assists, 33 points. He has a $7 million cap hit until 2031, which we’ll see how that ages. We know the salary cap’s going to go up this summer. that should help. But when they signed those three players, it was seen as a fundamental shift. Uh the NHL website itself on July the 2nd had an article which stated in it uh advanced metrics suggests their Stanley Cup window has reopened. The metrics the the advanced stats showed that Marsh Stamco be fine. And that’s where with advanced stats you have to take them with a grain of salt, right? when the team’s changing organizations, their numbers could completely change with advanced stats for reasons of, you know, they’re they’re not with the same linemates. It’s not the same team. Everything’s going to be a little bit different. So, don’t necessarily expect the analytics to line up from one organization to the next. Um, one thing I wanted to mention here, too, is that the season, it’s not like it got off to a rough start, but the whole situation with Ascarov didn’t really benefit the Nashville Predators. Ascarov once they had ressigned uh Soros and it became obvious there wasn’t a path for him to become the starter in Nashville. Ascarov wanted out and so he was traded to San Jose in a deal that I would say is is not likely to age well for Nashville. I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt that it’s only one year out from that trade. So So maybe, but I I don’t think so. Scarov has a path to being the starter in in San Jose. And that’s where we can get into get into that debate about whether or not they should have been willing to give a Scarov a chance to go for that starting job. Uh but we’ll talk about that. We’ll come back to it. Now, their cap space for this summer, uh, so July the 1st, according to Puckedia, $17.31 million in cap space, which is a lot relatively speaking to what most teams have been working with this season. But when you’re looking at resigning players, and they’ve got a, you know, a little bit in the way of RFAS, they’ve also got a couple of UFAS they’re going to have to replace. They don’t have $17.31 million in cap space just to go out and add new players. uh that’s going to have to be used for resigning players and whatnot as well. So, it is a challenge for Nashville if they want to get better. And Barry Trotz has stated in previous times that he wanted the team to get better. Although, I I do think he’s probably a little more open to maybe some sort of a retool right now than he might have been say last December. Uh I did find articles too back in in November where he was optimistic they were starting to turn things around and at times it looked like they might that just there was nothing sustainable. So they do have some draft capital. They have three first round draft picks this year. Two seconds and two sixth round picks. They have extra draft capital for next year as well. Two seconds, two fourths, two fifths. And then in 2027 they have a couple of thirds and a couple of fourth round draft picks as well. though the one sticking point here for some might be Andrew Brunette. I did see uh fans during this season saying, you know, some stuff about Brunett, the job he’s doing for Nashville, but it looks like he’s coming back next year. And I say looks like because I haven’t seen it 100% confirmed. It might be one of those things where as we get closer to the draft and once the all of the firings have taken place because we know that coming out of the first first round of the playoffs, you could still see some firings there. Um, we’ll see if Bernett’s job safe, but it looks like it should be. And Barry Trotz is a GM very likely to be patient with a coach. I don’t think he’s likely to pull the trigger quickly, so we’ll see. One sticking point too with the season that Nashville had is that at home they were 2018 and three which is not great but it’s not awful. And away from home they had the same record as Chicago 10 26 and five. They just could not win on the road. And it is definitely a story line. I don’t think they’ll be the only team I talk about where the road records cost them but it definitely cost them here. Although that record at home at 2018 and three isn’t exactly uh Nashville like uh Nashville uh over the last what decade they’ve been pretty darn good at home and so they’ll be looking to get that back at the very least next year. You want at least 25 wins at home I would say and then at least 16 or 17 on the road so you can start thinking about playoffs and and and where you’re where you might end up. Now looking at their season month by month, uh they were 36 and1 in October, but they started 0 and5, so it looked like maybe they were starting to come out of it. And then they were 46 and 5 in November. In December, they were 48-1. So 2024 wasn’t kind to them. Then the calendar flips and they were better in January they were 7 and five. Then in February they were 3 and five. Uh then in March 6, 9 and 1. And in April, 3 and 5. So, one month where they were above 500 this year and for Nashville that really is not what was expected. This team was expected to be a lot better than that. Now, their play against top teams was talked about during the season. So, I wanted to investigate that and see were they really better against the top teams and the answer is yeah. Uh they were 2-2 against Winnipeg which a lot of teams in the league would envy that record against Winnipeg during the regular season. Uh they were 0 and2 against Washington. So, the Capitals took them out twice. Uh they were 1-2 against Vegas, 1-1 against Toronto, uh 2-2 against Dallas. So those are the two top teams in the Central and they played pretty well against them. Now the last game against Dallas, end of the season, maybe Dallas wasn’t as focused, but still 2-2 is pretty good against Dallas. They were 1-1 and one against LA, 0 and2 against Tampa. So nothing decided in regulation in the two games between the two teams. uh Colorado, they were 2-1 and one against the ABS, uh 02-1 against Edmonton, uh 2 and 0 against Carolina and 0 and2 against Florida. So against the top 11 teams in the NHL, and I was going to restrict it to the top 10, and I thought, no, Florida’s 11th, so we’ll put Florida on the board, defending champs and all that, but against the top 11, by my count, they were 1115 and 5, a 435 points percentage, which isn’t great. But against the rest of the league, they were 1929 and three, a 402 points percentage. So yes, Nashville played better against the top teams than they did against the bottom teams. And do with that what you will. Uh this is a team that definitely played up to the competition and then wasn’t able to bring their agame against some of the bottom teams in the league. So, uh, there is maybe that’s a focus thing. And for people who think that, you know, Andrew Bernett maybe he shouldn’t come back, you could use that as an argument, say, well, they they weren’t up for those games against the bottom teams. They weren’t able to focus against teams they should be able to beat, right? Or at the very least, they weren’t able to come out with the results. You can say the focus was there, they just didn’t get the results, right? So, one thing I wanted to highlight here is UC Saros’s numbers have been trending down. Yes, the team is trending down, but I think there is a link there. So he’s been seen as an analytics darling for a long time and I did see that mentioned in the same article that suggested their Stanley Cup window was open saying analytical darling Jussi Soros resigned to a long-term extension. It looks like this team’s going to contend for a long time and then nope. Uh so 2020 2021 a lockout well not lockout shorten. Uh this was the 56th game season. I’m so used to saying lockout shorten season. Uh but 56 game season where you just played your division he went 2111 and1 927 save percentage and according to money puck he saved 13.2 2 goals above expected. So he played above average by that much. 2021 2022 3825 and3 record 918 safe percentage and the number went up 20.7 goal saved above expected and then he had a ridiculous season in 2022 2023 23 and 7 9/19 save percentage and he saved 46.7 goals above expected. So those numbers are insane. Absolutely crazy. And then they drop 2023 2024. So last season he finishes 35 24 and five. His save percentage dropped to 9006. Goal saved above expected he goes underwater there at a negative -3. So -3.0 last year and this season 2031 and 6 8.96 save percentage and the goal saved above expected drops to -7.4. So that is one thing to keep an eye on and this is where we can go back to the Iscarov conversation where you had this this goalender you’ve been developing and in all likelihood he might have been ready as soon as next season and if Sorrowos isn’t really quite working out. There was an out there and uh goalenders goenders are voodoo as we say and maybe he bounces back next year but the numbers have been trending in the wrong direction a couple seasons in a row now. Now their overall numbers are ugly. We know this uh 31st in goals scored per game at 2.59, 27th in goals against per game at 3.34. Uh the power play, they were 18th in the league at a 21.9% uh success rate. The penalty kill was actually seventh in the league at 81.5%. So special teams not awful. Much like Chicago that I talked about yesterday, the special teams in Nashville, not bad. uh the shots per game, they actually outshot their opposition. 29.3 shots to 28.6, which does not measure high danger chances and all that stuff. Although, going back to the article here from July 2nd of last year, uh the advanced stats and shooting percentages and all that would tell you that they had really good pickups. It just didn’t work out. It just This is why it’s dangerous to declare a winner in free agency. Uh I that’s why as far as I usually go is I’ll say I I like what this team did. We’ll see how it works because you just never know. Um it it does feel like some of the personnel decisions made in the offseason probably were were not optimal looking now at at how things went this season. I don’t know if they hadn’t added Marsha so Stamos and Shay other than having all that extra cap space. I’m not sure the team would have necessarily been better. Um although connect fans will thank Nashville for Keith for Kefir Sherwood forever. Uh but when you look at the scoring by period me go through this uh they they were good in the first period. They got outsc scored but only 69 to 64. And then it just caves in from there. Uh 102 goals against. In the second period they only scored 75. 95 goals against. In the third they only scored 69. And in overtime they allowed eight goals and they scored four. So the first period not awful. the rest of the game not so great. And so Nashville finds themselves in this position now where the question becomes, how do you get this team back to the playoffs if that’s the plan? And if it’s not the plan, what do you do with the long-term contracts for the veteran players that you have? I don’t have Yosi on the board. I don’t have O’Reilly on the board. Uh but questions about Yosi’s contract were out there when he signed it. And now that he’s had a season where he’s had some injury issues and he’s 34 years of age, um, does that contract now start to look bad, it’s a $9.08 million cap hit that he has, or does he just bounce back next year? Does he get healthy? And is it a lot to ask for a team where there’s so many players that are 30 plus for them to get healthy and pull it together and and and go on a bit of a run next year? We shall see. So, let me know your thoughts in the comment section below regarding the Nashville Predators and what you expect from them next season. Do you expect a bounce back or not? And what would you like to see Barry Trots do in the off season in order to fix what’s gone wrong? Because the way that they played against the top 11 teams tells you that maybe it’s not as bad as the overall numbers that if they can pull it together, but there’s a lot of ifs there and all of these players are going to be a year older next year. So, there’s that question mark in there as well. But let me know your thoughts in the comment section below. As always, hit like and subscribe in the case that you’ve not done so already. Thank you guys so much for all your support. As always, I will talk to you again soon.

Hey all and I continue my look at teams who missed the playoffs with Nashville in the spotlight.

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