Inside The Data: What Kind Of QB Is Jalen Hurts When He Attempts More Passes?

Inside The Data: What Kind Of QB Is Jalen Hurts When He Attempts More Passes?

[Music] Hello, welcome back to Inside the Data on Inside the Birds. I’m Jeff Motion. Of course, when we’re talking about data and analytics and metrics, that means we got our man Sam Finkele, our analytics expert. Please continue to submit your questions to [email protected]. Direct them to Sam and be as analytically specific as possible. And the question says, “This season, many expect Barkley, Saquon Barkley to regress and the young defense to fall short of last year’s number one ranking.” I’m not sure if everybody expects that. I mean, I think there’s some natural regret. Like, yes, it’s hard to have the greatest season ever and then go again and have the greatest season ever. I I I understand the point, but I don’t think that people are expecting this team to just completely collapse. But the question says, for the teams to succeed, it’ll likely come down to Jaylen Herz and the offense carrying the load. I’m interested in tracking Herz’s development as a passer. Beyond the obvious stats like passing yards and touchdowns, are there more telling metrics that indicate indicate growth, particularly ones that showed improvement in similar quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, or Cam Newton during their transition to more effective passers? I I chuckle a little because um Jason Ivant, who you know is part of our inside the birds family, he got to play with Cam Newton when he went over to Carolina and I think he would challenge the question of saying Cam Newton’s was really all that much more improved as an efficient passer. But nonetheless, uh I know he did win an MVP one year and he did he did have things rolling that year. They went to the Super Bowl. Uh but let’s let’s talk about the question itself. Uh Sam, give me a a yes, no, or maybe so on. Are there metrics that can indicate growth beyond the obvious of passing yards and touchdowns? Listen, okay, I I appro this question is a very tough one. Um, first off, there are no NFL nextgen stats when Cam Newton was playing or at least when he went on the MVP run. So, I had to take Cam Newton just out of this equation. I’ll just say that at the beginning. Um, I would have loved to see his stats from the 2014 to 2015 season. I just think that would be awesome to see at le the advanced metrics, let’s be clear, because it obviously were the basic statistics there. Um, so I attempted to answer this question in two ways, right? So I attempted to answer it head-on by looking at my two favorite advanced metrics for quarterbacks, which is the ones we talked about last week, uh, which was the completion percentage over expectation and the expected, um, points added per dropback. Right? I I love those two stats. And so I looked at the three guys he suggested uh besides Cam Newton um and including Herz uh in the beginning of this. Um but as we discussed this question, we kind of came up with this really cool research project that honestly I I feel like you should describe because I I think it was really a cool idea. Uh and you came up with it and I I I ran with it and it was such a fun concept. Yeah. I mean what I wanted to do was it’s tough because you’re right. It’s so tough to evaluate this. I we weren’t trying to take any credit away from the Eagles offense being runoriented, but the spirit of the question is passing metrics that would show. And so I felt like what if we took games, right, where where Jaylen Herz had to throw the ball more so around the league average than last year when he was throwing it at well below the league average. and knowing and and part of me knew some of that was a little bit unfair. Um because they run the ball the way for two reasons. One, because they have Saquon Barkley and they can in that offensive line. And two, and I think I’m it’s fair to say this, you know, in the past going into last year, there were times where they threw the ball more and there were more turnovers. Um, now I think Jaylen’s actually improved his ability to secure the ball because he took a shitload of sacks last year, more than he ever has and one of the highest sack taking percentages in the league. And he never almost never fumbled. Um, which is different than an interception. I get it. But I don’t know. The point was we wanted to find times and situations where he did have to throw the ball similarly to other quarterbacks who throw the ball around or higher the league average and see what the data showed. Is that fair? That’s fair. That’s fair. This was this was a really fun research project. It’s definitely We kind of created our own advanced stats, you and I. Like that’s kind of what happened. I create I thought of the concept. You created the stats. I don’t want to take any credit for that. Uh do you want me to go ahead? Every everybody comes up with, you know, ideas come from both of us and I I definitely think you deserve credit for this one because it was a really cool idea. I’m glad I sent you digging into the crates. So, I’m going to bring up some of the first charts that we showed and then uh let you get right into it. Give me one second. Okay. So, here are three charts, graphs, tables, however you want to describe them, and you go ahead and describe what we’re all looking at. Yeah. So let’s kind of ignore the third chart just for a second because I think that relates more to the second part of the the question but the at least our analysis of this question. The first two are pretty good. So first off let me just give a reminder of what completion percentage over expectation and uh expected points added per dropback actually means. Right? So completion percentage over expectation is the difference between quarterback’s actual completion percentage and expected completion for level accounting for difficulty of throw each basically each time. Um and expected points added per drop back is the average points added by a quarterback per drop back. It’s just you know how much are they actually contributing to points based on every drop back that they take. Right. And and and again, real to get real into the weeds on that, it’s like a throw that has enough yardage on it to put a team in either a field goal or a touchdown position or actually become one. Right. Precisely. Yes. It it’s it’s very nuanced, but that is the best way to look at it. Hey, this is all we got after, you know, there’s passing yards, there’s completion percent. We need to find nuance at this point. Absolutely. And that’s kind of what the question asked, right? They wanted the nuance. They did. And so what I did was I just wanted to look at the changes from, you know, when these quarterbacks took a leap. You know, it may not be fair to look at Lamar Jackson from 2018 when he was a rookie to 2019, but he’s been pretty consistent after that 2019 year. Um, but that’s the year I chose. Uh, and Allen made a huge jump from 2019 to 2020. And again, it’s probably not fair to look at Herz from last year to this year because I feel like he’s also been pretty consistent. But we’re just gonna we’re going to look at that from this framework because that’s what I chose to do. Um, so if you look at it, um, all these quarterbacks made a jump, right? So if you look at the completion percentage over expectation, Jackson went up 5.24, Allen went up 8.3, Herz went up 2.5, right? I mean, Jackson and Allen certainly made jumps, right? Because I think that’s when they did. And then if you look at their EPA for draftback, Jackson was plus 0.34. And no, this is not a typo. Allen was plus 24.0. 05. That is That’s staggering. That’s amazing. And you know what the funniest part is? If you look at that second chart, if you look at the um mi the bottom middle column Uhhuh. you see 2019 was minus 23. Oh my god. So he literally went from one end of the spectrum to the other. He was costing his team points because of turnovers, right? Turns exactly it. And then all of a sudden putting his team in great scoring positions. That’s great stuff. And I wouldn’t even say it’s that great scoring positions. He was 0.25, right? And that’s that is good. But going from costing them 23 points to 0.25 is a 24 point jump. That that’s a good point. The number in itself 0.25 isn’t high. It’s just the improvement from minus 23 point that made it a plus 24 jump. You’re right. He stopped taking massive amounts of points away and started just putting good points on the board. That’s good. Yeah. Yeah. And then you see Herz at plus.11, right? So, look, all these two quarterbacks made tremendous jumps. I don’t know if I would say Jaylen made tremendous jumps, right? I I think but that’s not to say he’s been doing bad. I just think he did well last year as well. Yes, that’s that that’s the only point I would make with that part of the argument. and and you can and as we’ll see in the second I don’t want to jump the gun on you but obviously second box or chart shows that in 2023 it’s not like he was a minus 23.8 like like um Allen was with his EPA or CPOE completion percentage over expectation. He was minus 4.1 which showed that he struggled in 2023 when he had I meant to ask you by the way as we get into these advanced data. Is this again only factoring in games where he threw around the league average or is this just all this is everything right here is everything. Yeah. Okay. Okay. So it showed in 2023 which we knew he struggled a bit in those departments. Yeah. And but not so much that he needed to bridge a minus 23.8 gap like like Josh Allen did. Exactly. And what Yeah, exactly. And what’s interesting is he led the league in EPA per play, EPA per drop back in 2024. So like pretty dramatic shift. So right. All right. Good stuff. So he led the expected points out per play in 2024. So, which shows you again limited throws, but I think that really illustrates his his ability to connect downfield a lot. If a lot of his throws are directly leading to plays that will result in points or did result in points, it shows you that he puts the when he puts the ball in the air, he’s accurate with it and it usually is an explosive play. Is that kind of like a a fair summation? Yeah, that’s absolutely a fair summation for sure. And now that I’m thinking about it, it might have been the I actually think it was the uh CPOE that he led the league in. I don’t I think that’s a mistype. Um because I’m looking at it, it was the 6.6 number, which is the CPOE. That’s just a mistype. Uh ignore that. Uh so his difficulty of throws, he was making throws that are extremely difficult at a very high percentage higher than expected over the league. It does seem me compares favorably in from 2023 to 2000 to last year to um Lamar Jackson a little bit more because Lamar in 2018 minus 504 completion uh percentage over expectation and then 2019.2. So he goes from negative to positive like Herz went from minus4.1 to 6.6 last year and then in EPA per play Jackson 2018 minus.02 02 to the next year 32 hertz also in 2023 minus 0.01 to last year of 0.12 that that’s those two guys seem a little bit more similar. Yeah, actually that that also I I actually realized that’s that’s it should be that 4.1. Oh well then even better. Uh I think yeah I think when I copied it over it took Lamar’s number but it it was 4.1. Uh okay so even better. He improve he was doing all right and that didn’t sound right. I’m I’m not gonna lie, that didn’t sound right. And yeah, I was a little surprised, too, because even when they struggled in 2023, it wasn’t he wasn’t inaccurate. It’s not like he had like 52%, you know, completion percentage games. Yeah. So, that that is actually the accurate uh depiction of between the, you know, 2023 and 2024 statistics. Apologies for that. No worries. Hey, that’s why we can do this. We can we can fix it with the and we can tell people we’re fixing it. That’s great. Yeah. All right. So the next chart is sort of a win-loss comparison, right? Um featuring all those guys. Oh, no. And some more. What does this tell you? So So this is we’re getting ready for the big part of this analysis. You ready? So I took and we talked about this, but I I took Herz, Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, and Jackson. And the reason I did that and the reason we talked about it is because when you perceive the top four quarterbacks in the NFL, you’re saying Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, and Jackson. And again, we’ve talked about how saying top four, we don’t love that, right? Because, right, it it’s not a great way to look, but you know, consensus wise, those are the people that people are talking about. And so what you see um with what you see with these guys is um hold on one sec. And you you know we just we don’t love the term top quarterback, right? It’s just not that’s that’s not a great brand of analytical football. And really any quarterback can be the top quarterback that day. It’s it’s it’s a consistency thing. I get it and colloally people love those debates and who’s the top quarterback, but realistically it doesn’t really exist, right? That’s not right. I’m sure you have a a very similar opinion on it. Yeah. Yes. I I Yes. I don’t have a ranking where one guy is number one and the other guy’s number two and the other guy’s number three. I do think Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL and then after that you can throw a couple guys in a bl, you know, like you said, any other week it’s it could be a different person. But um so yeah that’s that’s why we do this to have to avoid just saying someone is definitively one and two and three and four. Absolutely. And but just because you know there people think associate that label with those guys figured might as well compare her to them. Yeah. Yes. So this is a win- loss comparison chart. Yeah. And and you’re probably like why why is that where you start? Because I got to admit I’m that this is not I’m not a big quarterback wins is is a thing guy. ahead. And the reason so I I had one giant chart that I started with and I I said I need to break up this chart into several smaller charts. So this is just the first part of it and the reason I have it here is because I think it’ll provide context later in the analysis. Right? So I think it’s important to realize that Hertz has the best winning percentage uh and Burrow has the worst and everyone else is pretty close. Yes. All right. Good stuff. Okay. Okay. So then we’ll move on to the next chart. Yes. Shorten it up a little bit there. Okay. So this is what’s the first one? So the first chart is the average attempt comparison. So the first thing I did was look at the average attempts in the NFL over a three-year period. And that number you get is 32.31. So, an average NFL quarterback that starts will put up 32.31 attempts per game. And when we started this analysis, your your number that you gave was 25. Are you surprised to see randomly? No, I know. But are you surprised to see that the that the average is 32.31? Uh, yeah, I kind of am. I mean, you could have told me that it’s going to be higher than 25, but 32 uh is a little surprising to me. Sure. Yeah. So, what I did next was I I did an average of their attempts. And so, if you look at Herz, his average attempts per game is 29.46. Mahomes is 37.27, Allen is 33.24, Burrow is 38.24, and Jackson is 28.48. Right? So, just by looking at them, you know, Herz and Jackson are both below average. The other three are above average. Average attempts, passing attempts per game. Yes. Correct. Yes. Right. Uh there’s going to be a lot of average thrown around in this, but we’re not referring to the quarterback skill. It most of the time we’re going to be using average. It’s in relation to these attempts. Yes. And I’ve learned that we have to repeat things like that or else sometimes some people get very skep uh sensitive about words you’re using that they think you’re using in a different context. But yes. Sure. Absolutely. All right. So this is the numerical average. Yes. And so then what I did was I went through every single game of the last three years of these players and I said how many games were these quarterbacks above average attempts? Herz was above average on 15, Momes was 39, Allen was 25, Burrow was 31, and Jackson was 13. And so if you look at that as a percentage of the games that they played, Herz was only above average on attempts on 32.61% of his games. Mahomes was 79.59% of his games were above average attempts. Allen, he says Andy Reid likes to throw the ball out everybody. Allen was 51.02%. Burrow was 73.81% 81% and Jackson was the lowest at 29.55%. Right. Okay. Good stuff. So, they’re all above average. Well, no, no, no. Hold on. Wait. This is the percentage of games that they were above average. Correct. That’s I gota Okay. All right. Right. So in 32, call it 33% of Jaylen Herd’s games, he’s throwing more than um the league average, not his average, right? The league average. Correct. Okay. So in 32% of his games, he’s throwing more than 32 passes per game. Uh and same thing with Lamar Jackson’s only doing it about about 30% of the time. So that’s pretty close. Interesting. Yeah, it’s it’s interesting because you have Herz and Jackson on the one side, you have Burrow and Mahomes on the other side, and you have Allen kind of smack dab in the middle. 100% very I think it gives a pretty good picture of what we’re we’re looking for. Then I was like, how many wins did the Eagles generate with Herz having to throw above average? So Herz when H when he had to throw above the NFL average was 13-2, which was the best among the rest of the quarterbacks. He when he had to throw above average, he won 86.67% of the games. Great stat. I like that. I knew you would. I I had a feeling you were going to like that one. Um but again, it’s it’s a volume thing because, right, because Momes was 30 and N versus 13-2, right? Which again, he won 76.92%. And and then you had Burrow at the worst with 18 and 13, but again, his team is in a much different state. Uh, and he only won 58.06%. Awesome. That’s really interesting. So then it’s up to the mathematicians and some of the speculators to say, well, if Mahomes had to do it close to 40 times over average, uh, passes per game and Herz only 15. What would it look like if Herz had to do it 40? And it’s like, okay, my head is dizzy. Can we just stay with what we know? Sure. And that’s why I didn’t do an extrapolation. Uh I could have uh but it would have been all theoretical at that point. Oh yeah. Yes. That that’s when you start taking analytics a little too far because it’s all like you said all theoretical. Okay. But then the last thing I’ll say on this chart is then I did how many what were the what was the wins when below average and you know Herz was 24 and seven. Uh Momes actually went nine and one. So he had the best when he had to throw below average below the NFL average get 90% win rate. and Burrow again had the worst just because again it’s just hard with that team. Oh well, yeah, they can’t run. They have no offensive line. He has to they have to throw to win the the game with what they’ve got. Absolutely. And so then we can go to the next chart if you’d like. Yeah, unless more comments about that one. No, I thought that was exactly what we were looking for. Go ahead. I thought it’d be kind of fun to look at the home and away splits. Okay. So, and and there there was a reason why I kind of had a hypothesis with it and okay, it it it was kind of interesting and I I did I will admit I counted Brazil as an away game. I think that’s fair because you know if the the spirit of the stat is whether you’re on your home turf and you’re comfortable and you know like with the surroundings and everything that that is more like an away game. Yeah. So, I just wanted or a neutral sight if you if you you know. Absolutely. So, the away stat will consider neutral sights too. I just wanted to be transparent on that. That’s all. Yep. Um, so out of the So, Herz, they they all pretty much, as you would expect, are pretty even on home and away splits, but home games having to throw above average hurts through five at home and 10 away. And so my hypothesis with this and and maybe no way to actually prove it is when he has to throw above the average, it’s because of other factors, right? Because you’re, you know, you want to run when you’re comfortable, when you have the crowd, when there’s certain factors that you don’t necessarily have in away field. And so I think that’s just an interesting dynamic to kind of bring into this. Um, most of the quarterbacks kind of followed this pattern, right, of, you know, having throwing above average away and then not having to throw above average at home, except for Mahomes. Mahomes breaks that narrative. He throws more at home than away. Uh, but I just think that’s an interesting perspective that I didn’t originally anticipate taking this in that direction, but I just think it’s a fun little pivot for this analysis. I like it. I like it. It shows you’re trying to find a little bit, you know. Listen, we got to dig for the answer sometimes, you know, and you had to find more. What’s your thoughts on it on the home in a way and having to throw more? Do you think that’s just because of the nature of the way the game is or what do you think explains that? I I I almost think we’d have to go into who they’re playing. You know, it becomes it becomes part of that more too deep into the woods to and then you come up with theories. I don’t I don’t I don’t know why you would on average throw more on away than than at home. Um it’s harder. You usually I would think the opposite. You want, you know, because you got the silent count on the road, so it’s easier to run the ball. Sure. Um I don’t know. I that’s I I would imagine that there’s a lot of different reasons. I mean, this is a three-year average, too. So, you have three different offensive coordinators, right? um you’re playing three different types of schedules against three different divisions and conferences. Uh you know, the ones that you don’t play per year. So, um I don’t know. It could be an outlier. Yeah, I look it’s it’s a very interesting part of the analysis and I wouldn’t have included it if it didn’t give these results because I don’t think it would have been relevant. But I do think it’s relevant because it’s interesting. So, I like it. All right. So now the next chart is more just a statistical comparison of all those five quarterbacks for the last three uh three years. Yep. This is our final chart of the analysis. Mhm. And so what this does is it compares actual statistics, right? So yards um when there are above average attempts which is the AAA or you know the average below attempts, right? to the ABA. Um, and so it just kind of looks at that. So what what you see um when the attempts are below average and if they’re above average, how they kind of compare. And again, it’s a volume statistic because if you look at Mahomes, he has 11,000 yards when he has to throw above average and only 2,000 when it’s below. Uh versus someone like Herz who’s 4,000 and 6,000 or Lamar who’s 3,000 and 6,000. Right? So, I feel like the Lamar comparison is a little easier um than the Mahomes one, right? because of the similar I don’t know if it’s because the data is similar but but because these two are the ones that have the lowest average attempts per game compared to the league average. Right. Yeah. I So when they Go ahead. their play style um not that they’re like similar quarterbacks in how they play but just in how they attack how they have to attack a defense is a little bit you know you can compare it a little bit better. Right. So, when both of those quarterbacks are asked to throw the ball above the league average, which is not as much as Mahomes and Burrow, but when both are asked to, they have I mean, Herz has a 7.72 yards per attempt, right? And Jackson is at 708. That’s the lowest of the five. Um, and Herz is the highest of the five. And what’s interesting is his yards per attempt, regardless of if he’s above average or below average, is relatively the same, right? And I think that’s fascinating. That is fascinating. They’re relatively the same. And I think that what I make of that is that there’s not a lot of variance to the strengths and the weaknesses of Jaylen Herz, whether he’s throwing a lot or he’s not throwing a lot. He’s a deep ball thrower. So that’s why I think the yards per attempt is high even when he’s throwing the ball over league average because it means he’s throwing it to AJ Brown and Devonte Smith and outside the numbers um where he really excels. We know that Lamar when he does throw the ball a lot, his targets tend to be Andrews and likely like the middle of the field. He runs around a lot, buys a lot of time. Um, but I don’t I don’t see Lamar as this uh I guess superior outside the numbers deep ball thrower the way I see uh Jaylen Herz. I do think he’s an amazing tight window thrower Lamar when he want when he can be and he does throw in the inside the numbers a little bit more than Herz, but that’s like kind of a totally different where they throw the ball on the field is not this point of the uh the exercise here. Sure. But I think it’s relevant and I appreciate you bringing it up. Um, with Jackson though, like when he is asked to throw below the average, he has the highest yards per attempt, right? Which means Yeah. Oh, go ahead. I just think it means that he’s distributing efficiently when even on limited throws. Yes. So, so that I wanted to ask you about the touchdown to interception ratio when both when all of these quarterbacks throw above the league average. The 1.54 is that that is you have that in red. But is that that’s a good thing though, right? He’s the best. That’s good. It’s the worst out of these quarterbacks among the quarterbacks. It’s the lowest out of the quarterbacks. Correct. Meaning the best, right? No, because you’d want more touchdowns to interceptions. Oh my gosh. I had a You’re right. I’m thinking just interception percentage, not touchdown to interception percentage. Okay, so that’s interesting because these numbers are really far. Whereas the the Lamar Jackson ones are are similar comparisons when both of these quarterbacks have to throw the ball more than the league average, Lamar throws far more touchdowns than Jaylen Herz, at least relative to interceptions. I’m sorry. Yes, correct. Far more touchdowns to to interceptions than Jayen Herz. And when they’re below the league average, they are their numbers are a little closer. Yeah, it’s about one touchdown away. So, you’d expect Lamar to have one more relative to an interception. I’m kind of blown away by the the the Burrow number there, 15 compared to everybody else’s 3, one, two, or four. So, when J when when Burrow doesn’t have to throw the ball that much, he throws way more touchdowns than interceptions. Way more touchdowns. He’s just pretty good at not throwing interceptions anyway. Yeah. I I think that’s also right. It’s a volume thing. He a lot of his statistics are diluted just because of volume, right? Like when you’re throwing the ball 50 times a game, you’re more likely to get intercepted whether it’s your fault or not, right? An interception that hits your receivers’s hands and then falls into the defensive back’s lap is still an interception, right? And that that’s a huge gripe I have with the interception system because and I think a lot of people have with the interception system. But you know when you throw the ball regardless if it’s a perfect throw you’re putting it in jeopardy. That’s just a nature of football. So when you throw a lot your statistics on interceptions are might go. I mean they’re likely to go up right. I would have liked now that I think I’m not knocking your your data collection all, but I would wonder about interception percentage for all five of these quarterbacks on above average attempts versus below average attempts to go along with the touchdown interception. But so because I find this sort of fascinating that Herz when he has to throw more than 32 times a game is consistently still among the league, you know, higher than as high as any of these guys, the highest in his yards per attempt. Um, but yet fewer touchdowns per interceptions. It’s almost it’s almost like they’re butting heads here. You get what I’m saying? because it’s like he’s throwing the ball deep and long, but he’s not throwing the same rate of touchdown interception as the other guys are. Well, I think it’s probably interceptions that weighs it down. Yeah, if I had to get I I could pull up I have the raw data. You’re you’re right. I mean, it could be the same number, but the point is he throws more interceptions um per touchdown interception ratio when he’s asked to throw the ball more. He which we know, right? Yeah. He he is better when he actually for a touchdown interception perspective when he has to throw it less which is interesting. Right. Yeah. Right. Okay. So I think that helps a little bit um with the that spirit of the question of metrics. We see that when he I think people think that when this guy has to throw the ball a lot it’s a disaster. And that’s not the case at all. There are really positive numbers here that we see that when he has to throw the ball a lot, it’s either just as good as when he’s not or a little bit better and it and it coincides well, it matches up well with these four other guys who are considered elite dudes. But then to answer part of that question, yeah, the interception thing, which we knew was kind of an issue that went back from 2023 and the start of 2024, I think he had two against Green Bay in the opener in Brazil. I think he had two more in the second game and then they kind of like scaled back and went to to Barkley heavy approach really week four, week five on, right? Then you saw more efficiency out of him. All right. Well, man, they asked, you delivered. That’s about as detailed of a breakdown on Jaylen Herz and his passing data. That’s what we wanted to do. When he throws the ball more, what do we get? And I think the answers were really interesting. And Sam, we thank you so much for all the hard work and the effort and the number crunching you put in. That is going to do it for this episode of Inside the Data. For Sam Finkele, I’m Jeff Mosher. Catch you on the next one. [Music]

ITB analytics expert Sam Finkel joins Geoff Mosher go inside QB Jalen Hurts’ passing metrics specifically when Hurts is asked to pass the ball at or above the league average. #eagles #philadelphiaeagles #flyeaglesfly #jalenhurts #nicksirianni

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