Are Blue Jays built for a successful second half run?

Keegan Mat now joins us. Bit of a speed wobble by the Jays to close out the first half, losing three of their last four, but they sit in first place in the AL East. Keegan, the Jays have the third best record in the AL, but only the eighth best run differential. Is that a sustainable way to win? The way they’ve been playing makes me a little more optimistic than the fancy stats would suggest. I think at this point a lot of their baseball has been playoff style baseball which is finding a way to win the 2-1 the 3-2 game and they’re doing that not by luck but by situational play and I think that’s where the optimism has to lie. You see every year teams that have this run differential differentation that are just lucky. I don’t think the Blue Jays are that team right now. I think they’re doing this the right way. And while they’re not blowing teams out, they are a team that when it is 3-3 2-2 in the eighth inning, you have confidence that they’ll find a way. That’s come from the bottom of their lineup. It’s come from George Springer and a lot of the big names up in the middle. But that is a big difference from this time last year. They were not doing those right things in the right moments. This time they are. And if you’re a Yankees fan, yeah, you’re going to point to the Blue Jays having a run differential. It’s not quite as pretty. But the Blue Jays, I think, are doing this the right way, and I do think this is sustainable, especially as they look to continue to add. And when you look around at who potential sellers could have on the block, what are a couple of names you see as ideal fits for the Jays to pursue before the July 31st deadline? Yeah, I feel like this bar continues to raise as we get a little later into the season because the Blue Jays, they have enough big league players. They have enough depth. They do not need to raise their floor. They’ve raised their floor a ton year after year after year. They need to raise their ceiling. So when you look in the rotation, for example, you can look at Zack Gallon and Mel Kelly. You can look at Cabrera with the Marlins. But this doesn’t get fun until you’re talking about a Seth Lugo or really big Jacob Deg Grom raising that ceiling. Any pitcher the Blue Jays add, there’s one question I care about, and that is will they pitch in the first three games of a playoff series. You’re not looking for somebody to pitch game five when everybody else is gassed. You’re looking for somebody who can change a series. Right now, the Blue Jays rotation is good, but by game three, are they at a disadvantage maybe up against a big team? The lineup is the same conversation for me. A hitter that’s added to this group needs to raise the ceiling either with a big platoon advantage or extreme speed on the bases. Something unique they can do that is special. You can look at Yueno Suarez and some other big bats that could come in and do that by themselves, but again, it’s a high bar and if the Blue Jays are going to swing, they’ve got to swing big on this. And plenty of Blue Jays have overachieved in 2025, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr. isn’t one of them. He’s posting the lowest slugging percentage since his rookie season in 2019. How do you explain his first half power outage? How do I explain a lot of stuff this year? My goodness. If you’d told me that everybody would be hurt, Vlatty would have an 800 ops and they would be in first place, I would not have believed it. And Vlatty at this point, I think we’re seeing what we’ve seen in 23, early 24, which is him trying to do everything. And that does not work. There are a lot of days where I think Vlatty would be better served walking in to the ballpark at 6:55 in a pair of sandals and just playing the game. Skip the rest of the day, free your mind up, and play the game. Because Vlatty, when he is free and relaxed and easy, is automatically one of the best offensive baseball players on the planet. When he tries to do a bit too much and when he’s overthinking things, that’s when you see the power go away. You see him driving the ball the other way. The singles. Vlatty’s not here to hit singles. A half a billion dollars is not for singles. It is for home runs. It’s for gamechanging performances. We know that’s in there. It was around this time last year when the Vlatty really caught fire. And if he can do that on top of what this lineup is already doing, the Blue Jays aren’t just a postseason contender, they can be a World Series contender. It’s all about Vlatty. It’s always about Vlatty. And I think the second he frees himself up mentally, we’re going to see that superstar again.

With the All-Star game festivities underway in Atlanta, the MLB season has reached its unofficial midway point, and the Toronto Blue Jays have a 55-41 record, which has them in the top spot in the AL East. Blue Jays reporter Keegan Matheson joins SC with Jay Onrait hosted by special guest Mark Roe to discuss the first half to Toronto’s season, who could be a good fit for the Jays to pursue before the trade deadline, and explains Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s power outage to start the season.

14 comments
  1. Over 100% of the Yankees run differential is from the 15 games where they scored 10+ runs.
    Around +130RD in those games. They use over 9 excess runs every 3rd win.

    They're almost -20 in the other 75+ games.

    Should they have a better record than 4-2 against us because of their +1 RD? 11-2 wins don't help you in a 4-3 loss.

    That being said, we needed to pull further ahead this last stretch. Yanks are too strong to assume they won't catch us again and we better be ready for that rematch.

  2. Don't forget – this team had superstar aspirations. Ohtani, Soto, Burnes and whoever else…

    They're on Plan D – outcome C. Who knows what they're going to attempt at the deadline? I would like to see them go for the biggest possible piece.

    The system has some hot pieces that any team would love as part of a trade for just about anybody.

    The perception of the system 3 months ago was significantly worse. It feels like we're loaded with house money and you spend the house's money.

  3. Vlad needs to get hot. Springer and Kirk will cool off as will Barger. We need Vlad and one of Bo, Varsho (when he returns) and someone else to go on a solid run.

  4. Not with mall santa as their manager. The dude keeps resting his hot hitters. They should be on a 15 game winning streak and counting by now if he hadn’t rested his hot hitters the last game in the white sox series and a couple games in the A’s series.

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