Southeast Predictions: Paolo & Magic ready to CONTEND? Trae & Hawks MOST IMPROVED team? | Nerd Sesh
Welcome everybody back into Nerd Sash. As always, I’m Carson Barber and alongside me is Logan Camden. And today we are doing our final NBA division preview. We have already knocked out five of them that you guys can go and check out if you missed them. Today, Logan, we are talking about the Southeast Division. Not the mightiest in the NBA, perhaps not the most revered, but just as important as any other. So, as we always do, let’s start from the top. Who do you have winning this division? Orlando Magic. Orlando Magic. Play that funky ass song, man. White boy. Yeah, I think Orlando is a pretty clear candidate to win this division. Uh, this team was ravaged by injury last season. Uh, you know, Jaylen Suggs missed a significant amount of time as did France Vagner and Paulo Bonero. and they were an abysmal offense. I said this that stat uh all the time last year, but it shocked me that out of all the bad teams we had last year, you know, Washington, Brooklyn, Charlotte, you’d figure they would be the candidate for this category, but the Orlando Magic scored under a 100red points more than any other team in basketball last season. They were dead last in three-point percentage and three-pointers made. They go out and address that major concern by adding Desmond Bane. And so I am predicting health. I’m predicting a uh improvement in the offense. And uh I think they finish with a record of 49 and 33 and they’re going to be my three seed in the East. That stat that you brought up about the total points. It does feel very representative of the Magic Experience because they were not literally dead last in offensive rating. They were 27th, but they were one of the absolute worst offenses. And they also played at this excruciatingly slow pace. So they were a 10th percentile halfcourt offense that was living in the half court more than like anybody else that just wasn’t getting anything easy on the board. It was brutal to watch the Magic play offense last year. I do think it will be better this year and I have them winning 50 games as my three seed in the conference. I will say they are not by any means the runaway favorite to win this division in my opinion. There is another team that I could easily see having the better record when all is said and done. But I am going to give Orlando the slight edge. So obviously the headline here Logan is the Desmond Bane addition. What specifically does he change for this team? I mean he gives them a legitimate high volume high percentage three-point shooter. I mean, this team was completely devoid of of guys like that on the roster last season. You know, you look at the roster last year and Jaylen Suggs was kind of that release valve, you know, like the I guess best starting three-point shooter, which does say a lot about the state of the Orlando offense. Uh well, and also what did he shoot last year? Like 31%. He had a down shooting year, major regression from the previous season. Yeah. And you’re hoping he can bounce back. I mean, Bane, he didn’t even shoot it well for them. He was like 34% last year for Orlando last season. Yeah. So, I think Bane is going to be that release valve for this offense where defenses just aren’t going to be able to cheat and load up the way they have on Orlando’s offense in years previous. You know, it’s just comical, man. Like, when you when you really think about it, like France Vagner was a under 30% from deep last season. You mentioned Sugg struggles. Paulo is not, you know, an elite shooter by any means. Neither is Wendell Carter Jr. So, it just it allows defenses to play Orlando in a really unique way. And I think Desmond Bane helps in that regard. Also, Bane brings some legitimate playmaking and ball handling value to this offense where I think he’ll take a little bit of pressure off of Paulo and Fron and hopefully enhance them as offball scorers in some certain ways. Maybe you can utilize Paulo more as a role man. You know, that’s optimistic. I think it would take Paulo like committing to doing some of these things as well offball which is a role that he’s just not used to, right? He always has the ball in his hands, but you’re hoping that Bane can bring some of that supplementary ball handling and playmaking value as well as that elite shooting value that he brings. But it really is the shooting and uh you know, he’s near a 40% career three-point shooter. You know, he should shoot probably 8 to 10 a game for this team and it’s going to help in a big way. I mentioned it earlier, but dead last in three-point percentage and three-pointers made. They were 27th in offensive rating. And it’s important to contextualize the reason this team is so good year-over-year is the defense. They were second in defensive rating. They have just a laundry list of these lengthy athletic guys who can rebound and switch. And so, you know, if this offense, Carson, can get to like league average, which may still even be optimistic for this Orlando group, you got to think that they should be more of a threat when it comes playoff time and just a more well-rounded team. Also, you just hope that they don’t get bit by the injury bug this year because that was a huge concern for them last season. But, I think Bane makes a meaningful difference, man. I could see them getting up to about league average by adding him. He makes a huge difference and obviously they paid a very heavy price to get him. Four unprotected firsts along with a couple of players. But I do love the fit. They desperately needed a player with anything resembling Desmond Bane’s skill set. And I don’t want to distill that down to just pure shooting value. That’s a huge part of it. This guy is one of the best three-point shooters on the planet. He can put up eight attempts a game for you and make 40% of them and do it off movement and do it off the dribble some and do it in transition. And a weapon like that, the Magic Offense of these last couple years couldn’t have even imagined. I mean, their shooting was that dire. They were the worst shooting team in basketball. Period. Point blank. No question about it. So immediately that sort of three-point volume and efficiency makes a huge difference here. And his versatility as a three-point shooter. the offball value absolutely in terms of keeping defenses honest on Paulo and Fron’s drives and just improving the spacing here. That’s all super helpful, but also they needed another ball handler and I think Desmond Bane is more than capable in that regard as well. He’s a very nice all-around player and because he is such an elite shooter, he can really extend defenses out and he can make some of those basic reads with good consistency out of pick and roll because he can stretch the defense so far out. He opens up driving opportunities for himself with a big runway. And so he’s just able to use his elite shooting threat and parlay that into a really nice all-around offensive game. Like you don’t want to underplay. This is a guy who has averaged five and a half assists per game, who is a pretty good pick and roll scorer and solid playmaker, who is a very nice transition scorer as well. So, they desperately, desperately needed somebody like him, and I think he immediately takes them up multiple levels offensively. Now, multiple levels from being right up there for the worst in basketball on offense. I mean, the worst offense in basketball of any serious team who wasn’t in tank mode. That doesn’t mean that Orlando’s even going to be an above average offense necessarily, but like you were saying, if you can get to that average range with what they can do defensively and with some of the potential improvements of a couple other key players on this roster, Orlando does stand out to me as the best bet to win this division. But I also think you absolutely have to look at two guys when it comes to setting the ceiling for this team this year. And they’re the two guys who Bane is being brought in to bolster and finally get some help because their offensive circumstances have been so horrible. That’s Paulo Bonero and Fron Vagner Logan. How crucial are they to this team’s ultimate ceiling and what are you expecting to see from those guys? Extremely crucial. You know, Carson, we talked about this during the off season, and I think you said this on our show when they made this move, but this is the kind of move that you make when you are confident in the foundation of your franchise, and you feel like you are very close to being, you know, into these highlevel contender conversations, right? Like Orlando really feels like they’re close to being able to win the East. And it all hinges on the development of Paulo Banero and France Vagner. Like they think they have two superstar talents and they just needed one guy to put them over the top. And if Paulo and Fron develop into those superstars, it is on the table for Fron. We talked about this a million times, too. It really is just a three-point shot. I think Fron is very complete in terms of his playmaking, his touch inside the arc, his ability to get downhill to the rack, his uh rebounding defense. I think Fron is very wellrounded. And then for Paulo, Paulo’s got all the skills in the world. It really is about him weaponizing his frame to me and getting downhill and just weaponizing his physical traits to the maximum uh to the max really. Like it’s complicated, man, because a three-point shot, an open three-pointer is the most valuable shot in basketball, right? Like three is just worth more than two. And yet, I am going to be critical of Paulo when 29.9% of his shots came from behind the arc, a careerhigh for him, and he had the highest average shot distance of his career as well. I just want to see Paulo settle less for threes and for mid-range jumpers and get all the way downhill more. He has a pretty high free throw rate and he is good in certain matchups at weaponizing his uh his frame. Some of it is due to the situation. We always have to mention that. So, I am optimistic that with the addition of Desmond Bane that hopefully will open up some more clear driving lanes for him, but I do think it’s a conscious thing with Paulo where he needs to attack mismatches at a higher level where he has a smaller guard switched onto him and he just needs to basically, excuse my French, but back his ass down into him and put him into the basket, right? When he has a a smaller framed guy, big body him, man. put your shoulder into his little chest and take him to the hole. Like that is the next step for me with Paulo’s development. He’s got the skills, man. The ball handle. He’s a pretty good playmaker for his size, right? I think it really is weaponizing his physicality on both sides of the ball. Specifically, mismatch attacking, maybe developing more of a a post game and taking more shots from down low. And then also, not only offensively to me, defensively, I really want to see Paulo weaponize that frame and be more u physical on that side of the ball, too. Rebounding, um, taking on some of those defensive matchups. I think he could do a bit better job there. But Orlando to me feels like they think they’re close, man. with how great this defense is that if Paulo and Fron can figure it out and blossom into those superstar kind of talents, this Orlando team feels like they’re pretty close. I think a reasonable expectation is Fran and Paulo get marginally better this season, but I don’t know if I see that superstar leap on the table. the three-point shot still is a major concern for me with Fron and I’m just not ready to pencil in Paulo as a guy that’s just going to magically figure out um this mentality that he needs offensively in one season. You know, I think it’s going to be a bit more linear than it is exponential. I agree in the sense that marginal improvement should really be the expectation for these two guys. And obviously they’re both very talented and very impressive for being as young as they are. And if you watch the playoff series last year, their ability to create their own shot in this hellish offensive environment, it’s impressive stuff. At the same time, when it comes to refinement and taking the leap that is going to be required of these two if they want to be the offensive center points on a really good team and a good offense, not an offense that is just like trying to scrape by and saying Paulo France, just do what you can to get yourself 25 points per game. We’re not super worried about efficiency because we understand that we’re going to hang our hat on our defense and we’re just trying to be passable offensively. The bar is going to move as this team wants to go deeper and deeper in the postseason and not just get bounced convincingly in the first round. And that’s where both these guys still have major flaws that need to be improved upon. You mentioned the inconsistency and inefficiency with Paulo’s jump shooting. To me, the big issue is just the heavy heavy reliance on the mid-range. Paulo took 6.3 two-pointers per game from outside of 8 ft. He shot 40% on them. It is one of the most mid-range heavy shot diets in basketball. And everybody else who was taking that many of these shots is simply much better at them. So, I agree with you when you say there’s an element of the situation probably inducing Paulo to settle a little bit more, but at the same time, the percentages on these shots indicate that he is way overly reliant on them. And there are instances where he does have a mismatch and it’s just his instinct to settle. He’s definitely dealing with a lot of crowded paints and shitty spacing, but I do definitely put some of this on Paulo’s own shot selection. And that just has to improve because I think it would be optimistic to like expect some overnight improvement from him as a jump shooter. I mentioned 40% on all these shots, two-pointers outside of 8 ft, 32% on threes, under 73% from the line. Like the degree of difficulty on these shots is higher than average, but all the indicators are Paulo right now is a below average jump shooter. And I’m not seeing that changing overnight right now. But what can change is more of that relentless downhill aggression because the fact that he does get to the line eight and a half times a game with his shot diet. Like that’s insane. Last year when I checked, Paulo had the highest free throw rate on drives of anybody in basketball. when he commits to getting downhill, it’s just a ridiculous frame 610 250 with his athleticism and his agility and coordination and ball handling. The guy is an absolute train to deal with. So that’s when he’s going to become the best version of himself. That’s when some of his reads as a passer will get more intuitive when he’s straight up collapsing the defense like that. And that is an area where Paulo needs to improve as well with the processing as a passer. Technically, he is a very skilled passer for being 610. That’s always been an intriguing aspect of his upside to me is the playmaking potential, but he has to be more consistent in terms of his ability to quickly diagnose things, make good decisions with the basketball because I was disappointed with him this past year in that way. I would say hopefully just having better offensive surroundings means he trusts his teammates more. He’s a more willing passer and we’ll see how much of a difference that does make. But Paulo still has a ways to go before he’s like a legit offensive number one on a good playoffense. And building out more of a true bully ball post game should be a huge point of emphasis there too. So he can really abuse these mismatches more so than just living off of fadeaways, relying on just shooting over top of guys because he was a 20th percentile poster last year. There’s just no reason for that to be the case. That just has to improve. And then with Fron, it really just comes down to the jump shot. Like you said, he’s one of the most effective driving wings in basketball. I love his passing, but 28% from three over the last couple years is just not going to cut it. Especially when it’s damaging to your team off ball because you can’t really keep them accountable with your shooting off the catch and on ball. Teams will just give you that cushion and they will absolutely dare you to shoot pull-up jumpers. And Fron is so good that again he can still give you 25 a game in a playoff series. But if the defense is also baiting him into putting up more than seven threes a game and he’s making 19% of them like he did in the playoffs this past year, it just really limits the level that he can be at regardless. He’s going to be like a top 30-ish player. But if he was shooting 35% from three, I think we would be looking at a guy who is all NBA caliber. I believe that Fron’s all-around game is really that good outside of this one big weakness. I like both these guys. I think we can expect them to get a little better, but the flaws are still so significant. They didn’t get dramatically better this past year. And I understand both guys were dealing with the oblique injuries and they were in and out of the lineup because of that. They didn’t have a full season to put together a rhythm, but it would seem to be a lot to expect these guys to get so significantly better that now we’re talking about them as one of the premier duos in basketball and the Magic are contenders because I still just don’t see that level. And specifically when you look at the minutes that Paulo is on the floor without Fron Vagner Logan, we’ve talked about this phenomenon a lot, but the fact that the Magic are underwhelming in the minutes their duo plays together. They’re really good in the minutes that Fron plays alone. They had a plus nine net rating in those minutes last year. It was even higher than that two years ago. And when Paulo was on the floor without Fron, they had a negative nine net rating last year. So, you have to look at Paulo and say you need to be more capable of carrying some of those units without Fron to more decent results. You can’t be losing those minutes so significantly. So, I don’t trust these two. I don’t trust the offense enough to view them as legit contenders. But, I do think this team is good enough now that they should win a playoff series. The defense is going to be very good. it probably won’t quite be what it has been these last couple years just because I do think that we can criticize KCP’s offense and obviously Bane is overall a huge upgrade because he is so so vastly better offensively and that is what this team needs more but he is a bit of a downgrade defensively Paulo is still very mediocre defensively so the Magic are always going to be a defensive-minded team they have good personnel there but also Jonathan Isaac I don’t think is quite ite the defender that he was a couple years ago. I think we’ll see them take a little bit of a step back there, but still certainly be a top 10 defense at least and be more of an average offense. How do you feel about the depth for this team, Logan? It’s okay. I I think some of the offseason moves are a little bit overrated, honestly. Uh I think Taius Jones is probably one of the most overrated players in basketball still. I don’t get how people bite on this like thing that he’s this fix for an offense like last year when he was the uh magical fix for the Phoenix Suns. Oh, oh my god. All they needed was a point guard. Wow. I get it, guys. He’s led the league in assist to turnover ratio like every season of his career. Cool. He’s a liability on both ends of the floor. So, I think he’s overrated. Uh I I like your boy D Silva. Uh he was impressive last year even though he wasn’t like super efficient offensively. I think he’s just got a really well-rounded game. I still do like John Isaac. Um Goa’s still here, right? Like I think Goa’s um a really good depth piece off the bench. Personally, I would probably still just play Anthony Black over Taius. Um Black has some things he needs to iron out offensively, but I think he’s a stud defensively and he’s a really good playmaker. Um, and then I wish they had like one guy with some legit scoring punch off the bench. That’s the only thing that I feel like this team is missing. And you know what I mean? Just a guy like you could put the ball in his hands and he could go fill it up. Uh, that’s the one archetype that I feel like this team is missing a little bit. I like the addition of Jace Richardson. For me, it’s a little bit optimistic to expect that he’s going to be like a really high-end difference maker year one. I could be wrong. Um, he looked good in preeason. I’ll give him that. So, I like the bench. It’s not a world beater by any means, but they they’re an impactful defensive unit off the bench. Like I said, the one archetype that I really wish they had is just another guy with some scoring punch that could give them a little bit of that that firepower, you know, like 10 to 15, which that’s, you know, like a six-man kind of production, but that kind of impact off the bench. I wish they I wish they had a guy like that. I’ve got to push back on the Taius Jones hate here. Even as somebody who going into last year was saying, “Yeah, the idea that Taius Jones as the true point guard is going to solve the Phoenix Suns many, many issues, that was ridiculous.” You got to think about the standards here. It’s a totally different situation. Cory Joseph was starting for this team in the playoffs last year and playing 25 minutes per game, Logan. That actually happened. That is how dire the guard rotation was. And Jaylen Suggs was hurt obviously and he’ll be back this year. But I do think that if you are just looking for Taius Jones to be your regular old bench point guard, then yes, he controls the game well. He makes good decisions. He’s a good passer and he shot the ball well last year. Like he’s totally solid in that role. And I like the totality of adding him and Jace Richardson, who I do think is pretty ready to contribute now offensively. Very much in a complimentary role, but that was always going to be his role. He’s a really good catch and shooter. He’s just got good feel as a basketball player. If it’s playing off screens away from the ball, if it’s cutting even, he’s just an efficient player. He’s got good passing feel. He can do some of that ball handling for you. He was an efficient pick and roll player. I just think he’s a nice all-around offensive contributor at the guard spot and I love the pick for them because to get him at 25th that value considering the need was really nicely done. So overall I think the guard depth is solid. I think it’s better than it’s been like way better than it’s been. I’m still really not sure about Anthony Black’s offense though, man. And I liked the pick at the time and I think defensively yes he is impactful. I’ve just been disappointed by his lack of development and I think that he is still very limited as a scorer. I think the shooting with him is still super concerning. So, he’ll get his minutes, but I am glad that they do have a Taius Jones and a Jace Richardson, some of these more offensively slanted guys because I just think flat out offensively I have a lot more confidence in both of those guys. I’m including rookie Jace in that over Anthony Black. In terms of front court depth, I think it’s pretty good. I’m excited for year two to Silva. I think he’s a a nice doit all forward and I think he’s going to be a positive contributor for them. And then in terms of like when they want to go big, Mo Vagner will be back. He’s one of the most skilled offensive centers in basketball. I mean off the bench when you’re talking about a guy who can bring that spark off the bench offensively for Orlando. It’s not going to be a guard in terms of scoring punch. It’s going to be Mo Vagner who per minute is very productive as a scorer. they’ll get him back. I do still really like Goa as a third center here. They’re a little spoiled on that front. And Jonathan Isaac, even though I think he’s maybe taken a little bit of a step back athletically and defensively, is still a nice contributor to have in the rotation when he is healthy. So, all around the depth here is pretty solid to good. The starting lineup is now much more effectively constructed. Two key guys though who we haven’t talked about in the starting lineup are going to be Jaylen Suggs and Wendell Carter Jr. Even though Suggs is not going to be asked to do as much as a ball handler now we need to see what level of shooter he really is because it has been a volatile up and down experience from him in the NBA so far. He comes into the league, he’s a terrible shooter. Then he shoots almost 40% on pretty good volume in 2024. last year, higher degree of difficulty, but he does come back down to 31%. So, we need to see where that levels out because ultimately his shooting off the cash is going to be really important for the spacing for this offense overall. And then Wendell Carter Jr. shot the ball terribly last year and just had a rough offensive season overall. Well, he played better in the playoffs, but I would like to see him be a more consistent, capable offensive contributor for them because I do think he has the skill set to do that as pretty good jump shooting big. Yeah, I was just going to add, I mean, the difference in catch and shooting is the biggest concern to me for Suggs. Suggs was 41% off the catch in 24, 35% off the catch in 25. Like you mentioned, it’s different circumstances, but that’s going to be really his offensive role this year is like a 3 andd point guard. Set the table a little bit. He is a good finisher inside. I’d like to see him, you know, keep getting downhill and stuff like that, but I mean, I think his role with this team, the biggest swing factor for him in this season is just his ability to shoot the ball at a high level. And um it’s going to make a big difference for this uh for this team offense. And then Wendell Carter Jr. too. It’s kind of his only value to this offense. You know what I mean? Is like his ability to hit that mid-range and three-point uh shot. So, I don’t know. I think I think middle of the road is about my expectations, man. I think it’s an accomplishment and a successful season. If Orlando can get to 15th in offensive rating, if they can be just average there, I think it’s a success. I think that’s about right. And I think that is about where they will end up. Bane is a huge difference maker here. His shooting, his driving ability, too. You really can’t sleep on I mean, he’s just such a [ __ ] powerhouse. He’s so strong. He’s so built that like he just kind of has people bounce off of him on these drives and is very efficient around the rim and he’s a really good mid-range pull-up shooter, too. Like, he’s a very good offensive contributor. And so more so than expecting Paulo or Fron to like totally change who they are and take these big leaps, it’s really Bane that makes me way more confident in this offense overall. And it’s going to be nice for them to get everybody back. The Magic were a really tough watch last year, but you saw the potential of what they could be with the defense and with Paulo and Fron. And now they’re just putting way better pieces around those guys. But as I said, Logan, there is a team that I think is right there with Orlando in this division. That’s the Atlanta Hawks. I’m going to assume that they’re next for you. What are your expectations for Atlanta? Yeah, I have Atlanta going 45 and 37. They’re going to end up as my five seed. I like what Atlanta did in this off season a lot and what they’ve kind of been building. Uh the acquisition for Porzingis was huge. I mean, that was just pennies on the dollar. You were mentioning it earlier. I think Atlanta is going to have a legit shot to push Orlando for the division, but I think a lot of that hinges on Christophs Porzingis availability, which ultimately I’m not going to bank on. He’s probably going to miss some time, and I think that is probably going to be the slight differentiator for Atlanta and why they aren’t going to win this division. Also, I feel more confident banking on Orlando because of their defense. I think their defense just gives them such a high floor for this season with Atlanta. You know, Atlanta’s offense is going to be really damn good. But I feel like Orlando is the safest bet, but Atlanta’s going to be really good and Porzingis was one of the even though, you know, I mean, he’s horrible in the playoffs, still one of the big additions of the off season. And I think he’s gonna make a huge difference for Atlanta in their outlook because it’s just something that they haven’t had and I think he’s going to be such a good pair with Trey. I think he’s such an ideal compliment for him. I really like the Hawks. I have them winning 48 games as my four seed and I really just don’t think there’s a gap between them and Orlando unless we do see some of those significant improvements from Paulo and Fron. Then you look at that roster and you say, “Yeah, there’s more high-end talent.” And there is because they’ve got a couple of like top 30-ish players and then Desmond Bane is another top 50 player. But in terms of overall roster construction, I think what Atlanta has is a little bit more intuitive. I think it’s actually a little bit more balanced. I really like their depth and maybe they don’t have like a quote unquote big three like Orlando does, but I do think that Jaylen Johnson and KP are very good. Trey is going to elevate both of them offensively. They are going to support Trey defensively. And then the totality of what this team has on the wings, I really like. So, I do view this as a team that has a very clear path to being above average on both sides of the ball. And even though they don’t have the highest ceiling on either side, when you’re building a team around Trey Young, you understand that he has a superpower, which is what he can do to elevate your team offense. And he also has a major limitation in terms of your team building, which is how bad he is going to be defensively in an era when you can exploit any bad defender on the floor in a major way. I think they have approached this correctly in terms of prioritizing more so covering up for him defensively with a bunch of good athletes, good defensive players and guys who complement him well enough offensively that you feel like you should still be really good on that side of the ball, too. So, I really think this could be the best Hawks team that we’ve seen. And I understand they made the Eastern Conference Finals in 2021 and they really hit their stride down the stretch of that year, but that ultimately wasn’t a great team overall. They defended pretty well in the playoffs, but they were a below average regular season defense. They were only 10 games above 500 that year. I think that this team has more overall talent and potential. I really like this roster. I do too. I think this team is a lot better and I really like their top eight specifically. I mean, Canard, Alexander Walker, and on Yeka off the bench is pretty big-time stuff. Like, I really like those guys as contributors. And then the starting lineup, I mean, you have three potential allstars. I don’t think that’s a reach. I’m just saying like all-star talents. I don’t think they’re all going to make the all-star team, but in Trey, Jaylen Johnson, and KP. And like you said, Carson, I think they’re extremely complimentary. Uh Dyson Daniels is your two guard alongside Trey is one of the best perimeter defenders in basketball, an extremely uh great defensive playmaker and uh solid playmaker and uh you know serviceable shooter. Uh Rhys Ae I thought looked really good alongside Trey in his role last season as just a you know spot-up scorer and a guy is a a connective piece. He looked, you know, it was a little bit rough towards the beginning of the year, but as the year went along, he looked like a pro, like a veteran. Like he just fit in and made winning plays and is a good offensive player. And then Jaylen Johnson’s fit alongside Porzingis I really like as a mobile kind of defensive playmaking wing, versatile defender, can do it on the perimeter and on the interior, and Porzingis should protect the hell out of the rim for when he’s available. Mhm. So yeah, the the only concern I have with this team, Carson, because I really do like the top eight, is just injuries. I think that if anybody in the top eight gets hurt, I don’t like their death beyond. I think that if you’re returning to, you know, CREY or New for minutes, I’m a little bit nervous about them. But I really like this top eight and I think you’re right, man. I think this should be a really solid two-way team. I think they should be league average defensively, maybe a little bit above average. And then offensively, I think this could be a fringe top 10 to top 10 kind of offense depending on uh availability. And they also they got bit by the injury bug a little bit last year too with Jaylen Johnson who’s having such a phenomenal season. But yeah, I think the Hawks should be one of the most improved teams uh from last season into this year. Absolutely. and they were still able to play 500 basketball overall on the year. And I think you have to give so much credit to Trey for his offensive floor raising job there. Like he is really a pretty premier offensive engine. There are just few dudes who create as many quality shots for a team over the course of a game as Trey Young. few dudes who can take on that sort of massive offensive load and consistently produce for you 25 to 27 points per game, 10 assists per game, create a bunch of rim assists for his teammates, get to the line a bunch himself, extend the defense super far out with the threat of his pull up three-point shooting. And even though Trey is not the most efficient player offensively, his impact is pretty massive when you let him really do his thing. And that’s what he did last year. He got them to a 117 offensive rating when he was on the court. That was in rough circumstances, man, where they lost Jaylen Johnson. And as I said, they did not have another clear positive offensive player, at least in the starting lineup. Like, he was too. Yeah, exactly. And so, you’ve got questionable shooting all around. You’ve got a total lack of creation. And yet, when Trey’s on the floor, you’re a pretty good offense. That’s been the theme throughout his entire career. You look at the entire 2020’s decade, he’s got more than a 6 and a half point offensive onoff swing for this team. That’s one of the highest numbers that you will see. And if you look at his track record, three times he’s led Atlanta to be a top eight offense. And they’ve never had like another good creator alongside him. The only time they really tried to put another ball handling guard with him, it was Dejante Murray, who sucks. And so that didn’t work out. But with Trey on the floor, you’re going to have a good offense. So, what you need around him is a bunch of athletes who can defend and play finishers on offense. And I just think that’s what they’ve got now. Tyson Daniels is as good as it gets for a guard defensively. Reys a really good defensive tools physically and instincts. And maybe it’s a lot to ask a year two guy to be like a legit positive contributor to a good team defense, but I think that he has the ability to be that. I would like to see him add strength to his frame. Yeah, I don’t think he’s going to be overtasked, though. I like what he’s flanked by, you know, with Dyson and Jaylen and KP. I totally agree. Obviously, Dyson is going to be the one drawing the most difficult perimeter matchup pretty much every time. KP is a genuinely elite rim protector. Held opposing players what, 14% below their average field goal percentage at the rim last year. Like, when it comes to just straight up protecting the basket, KP is one of the absolute best in the sport. And then Jaylen Johnson is very versatile and he’s a very good defender with some matchup versatility that he can take on and he’s a pretty solid secondary rim protector too and a very good defensive rebounder. So I absolutely see a formula for an above average defense here because I look at everybody other than Trey and I’m like they are a pretty good to great defender. Like KP has his schematic limitations. Nevertheless, he’s a pretty good defender because the rim protection is just that valuable. I think Rach will be pretty good. Jaylen Johnson is already quite a good defender and Dyson Daniels is again one of the best on the planet. And then you look to the bench and you’ve got Nquille Alexander Walker who is a sick point of attack defender. So he is like as good of a Dyson Daniel substitute as you’re going to get defensively or he’s somebody who you can put alongside Dyson if maybe Rehash is having some struggles and now you’ve got as good a point of attack duo as anybody in basketball even if you’re a little bit small in that lineup like the ball pressure you’re just going to be absolutely ferocious in that way and when you talk about the depth beyond the top eight I agree with you it gets a lot shakier even though I love the top But the guy who I look at is Moay because he is a dog on defense. I mean, he is a hell of an athlete. He is a defensive playmaker. I don’t know how much he’s going to play because his offense is very limited. He has to get to like a baseline of capable shooting that he’s not at right now for him to be like a legit rotation guy. But I do kind of think he’ll have to play a bit for this team, at least in the regular season, because their wing and their forward depth is just that shallow. Like I really like Onca as a backup center. I really like Nikil Alexander Walker and Canard as backup guards, but when it comes to like, all right, who’s going to fill in the minutes when Jaylen Johnson isn’t on the floor? I don’t see anybody who I like as much as Mo Gay in that role, by the way, was starting for this team down the stretch last year. So, I’d like to see him play some minutes because I think that there’s potential there again if he can just be close to passable offensively, which he’s not yet. But that defensive formula I like. I think it is absolutely the best defensive personnel they have ever put around Trey Young, bar none. And I love that being the priority. And offensively, they are lacking a bit in terms of ball handling alongside Trey. Jaylen Johnson took on more responsibility there last year. He’s a gifted passer for his size. He’s a gifted ball handler for his size. He’s still not super productive as an onball creator though. I think he was a bit overtasked there. The efficiency on ball was rough with him. Dude, I was just going to say, dude, the Hawks were seven points better defensively with Gay on the court than without. Sounds right, dude. I mean, he is an impact. I mean, per 36, he’s like damn near two steals, two blocks, 10 boards. Yeah. No, he makes plays when he’s on the court, man. He’s a hell of an athlete. brings you that rim protection value. So, it’ll be fun. So, I think it’s important to mention obviously it’s a pretty small sample size, but that’s just for reference. It is a pretty small sample size, but if you look at his career per 36, two steals, 2.2 blocks, man. So, yeah, that’s only 40 games total. I don’t know why I said his career like that was going to be different because he barely played at all in 2024, but that’s a legitimate valuable skill set that he does possess. Offensively, you are going to rely heavily on Trey. Again, Jaylen Johnson to me is not that second on ball creator who is like legitimately reliable upper echelon in that role. But what he is and what I’ve always loved about him is he is such a versatile offensive player who can do some of everything. He can handle some and playmake and drive some and he’s improved as a shooter. He’s just solid there. But that’s an improvement for where he was at as a prospect. A significant improvement. He is a very good finisher around the basket who’s got good cutting feel. He’s a willing screener and roller. He’s great in transition. So, he brings positive value in a number of different ways and he can compliment Trey nicely. Reset is like the definition of complimentary offensively. He’s great in transition. He’s an awesome cutter. This guy’s impressive, man. I was too low on Reese AJ as a prospect. I was adamant about the fact that he was not the best prospect in the class. There were several guys who I liked more than him with the level that he was playing at starting January 1st once the shot came around and he started shooting [ __ ] out of the ball. I just wasn’t as bought in on the shot as as maybe I should have been. I just wasn’t as, you know, convinced it was going to translate. And look, he still has the lowest ceiling of any number one overall pick since Anthony Bennett. He’s already way better than Anthony Bennett, but I’m just saying it’s the very very rare instance where you are not drafting for a star with the number one pick. He is a better athlete than I thought too. But I was impressed 41% from deep after January 1st. That’s 41 games. I mean, it was a total 180 in terms of his shooting where he was struggling early in the year and was just lights out for the second half of the year. and his awareness offensively, how to use his athleticism offball. It’s very impressive to me. And so I like him already as like a pretty high floor offensive contributor. And with athletes like him and Jaylen Johnson in the full court, Atlanta really got up and down the court at a very fast pace last year. So they get a lot of easy offense like that, too. But the biggest key for this offense is going to be that KP is the weapon here. KP is the guy who you insert into this offense and he just adds a dimension of I can light up certain teams and give them 23 points per game on elite efficiency. And when I am in my bag as a mismatch attacker where KP has been one of the best post scorers in basketball over the last several years now as he’s added some physicality to his game and gets to the line more and the shot making is so great. He can destroy a switching defense and he’s also an elite pick and pop big. So that’s a really nice compliment to Trey. Even though Trey is probably at his absolute best when he’s playing with a great roller because his interior passing is just so phenomenal. Nevertheless, a dude who can consistently draw defensive bigs out beyond the three-point line, open up better driving lanes for Trey, and who Trey nevertheless can hit in his spots consistently. That’s going to be a really nice twoman game, I think. And I’m totally expecting a bounceback year from KP. I’m a KP guy. I think his skill set is so valuable when he’s right. The illness stuff last year, it was so weird. KP’s always an availability concern. Absolutely. But when he’s on the court, I don’t think he’ll ever look close to that bad again. I think he will deliver top 40 value for this basketball team when he’s on the court in a way that really suits this roster nicely. I think he can do what is needed of him, picking his spots, being super efficient offensively, and then defensively, they’ve got so much range and athleticism around him that like the pure rim protection is pretty much what they need. And he’s not a very good defensive rebounder for a center, but that’s where you have a Jaylen Johnson who can be a double- digit rebound guy. And I just think they project to be quite a good all-around team. Like, I really like how this roster is built. Even off the bench, Canard, elite shooter, he brings a little bit of ball handling for you, too. Underrated there. Oneka, I’ve always liked and he’s been better than Capella for years. At the same time, I don’t necessarily think he’s the guy you want to be the center on a a very good team, but as a backup, he’s one of the best there is. He’s a great offensive rebounder. He’s got really good touch. He’s a solid passer. He’s been extending his range out. And for all we know this year, like he could be a legit stretch big with the improvements that he’s made there already, I like the Hawks a lot. But as much as we can compliment these things, Logan, you’re not quite as high on them as I am. What are some of the swing factors that stand out for you with this team and maybe some causes for hesitation for you? Uh, I think Ree Sasha and his development, I think, is a big one. How much better does he get? uh Dyson Daniels and what he looks like offensively, you know, I just think could change how teams defend Atlanta specifically, you know, helping off of him. Really, the big swing factor to me is really Porzingis’s health and how available he is like and just how he looks. Like you said, man, I’m aligned with you on Porzingis. I kind of considered the playoffs to be an aberration, you know, and something away from the norm. like I I just think Porzingis is so much better than he looked. I I’m hoping that it was mostly because of the injuries. That’s really my big swing factor. And then like you said, I guess what you get from beyond the top eight, you know, if it’s Gay, if it’s Ace Newell, like whoever they give burn to. But I’m pretty confident in the Hawks just like as a baseline team just because of what Trey Young does offensively for them. I was going to ask you. Mhm. Do you think Trey Young averages 12 assists per game this season? Do you think that’s on the table? Whoa, that’s some exclusive company. I mean, he damn near got there last year, so it’s on the table. I wouldn’t predict it. I think his offensive load is going to go down a little bit from last year because now you will have Jaylen Johnson healthy for a full season. There’s a little bit more ball handling on this roster overall, but it’ll be double digits. I mean, he’s automatic double digits. Yeah. Can you name all four players to average 12 assists per game in a single season? I’m so glad that you asked. John Stockton, Magic Johnson, Isaiah Thomas, Kevin Johnson. Bang. Oh. Oh, there’s one more. You even got him. I thought you were going to say the guy. Mostly game. Bang. Five for five, baby. Don’t play with me. I have mental problems. So, I agree with some of those swing factors that you laid out. Reach’s development is going to be notable. However, I do feel like he’s a pretty safe bet to be good. And you also know that it’s not suddenly going to be like, whoa, Reach is doing a lot with the ball in his hands. Like, it’s pretty much going to come down to his shooting consistency and his continued defensive development. And I like the trajectory that he’s on there. I also think KP’s level absolutely along with his health are big swing factors here because if he’s not available well that totally changes the outlook for this team and if he’s going through some sort of wonky space jam had his power zap situation again like that changes everything. So they’re definitely banking on KP being very good for them even though they added him at such a heavily discounted price like he is essential to their formula and my optimism for them. Jaylen Johnson’s health, too. Like, unfortunately, that has been far from a given over these last couple years, which is a big bummer. I hope that we get to see him play uh a full 82 games or close to it. But 36 games last year, 56 games two years ago, that’s a guy who they need healthy because he ties together so much for them on both sides of the ball. and in terms of complimentary playmaking on offense, defensive versatility, rebounding value, and again, they really are thin at forward truly. And then the last thing I would shout is Trey Young’s ability to carry this sort of massive offensive load in a playoff run because we know that he can do it over the course of a regular season and that’s enough for me to say the Hawks will be a top four seed. When you get to the playoffs though, it is a different ballgame. We have seen Trey struggle more with efficiency. And the specific thing that I think you have to monitor with him is if you go up against a really good switching athletic defense, that’s a challenge for him because he is so masterful against conventional pick and roll coverages. He can make every read, every pass, and he’s always going to put the defense in some sort of compromised position. He’ll get to his floater. He’ll draw a foul. He’ll create a great shot for a teammate, but if you can legitimately switch, Trey Young is not a very good isolation scorer. He can struggle to really create separation there. Overall, he’s not as effective as a driver there, and he has finishing limitations, too. So, that’s something to watch. Now, I don’t necessarily know that that defense really exists in the East this year. That would like totally scare me for that matchup. Like maybe the Cavs, if they go with Mobley at the five, they could be quite switchable. The Magic actually are probably the defense that stands out. Even though they’ve lost a little something now with KCP out the door, that is a team that really likes to switch and they’ve got good personnel there. The Pistons I think are a pretty good defense, but not in that mold. They’re not going to be like a super switchheavy group. So, it’s also important to keep in mind that this is why you get KP because if he’s right, he is the ultimate switchbuster. So, even if Trey struggles more against those looks, KP should really excel and maybe even be able to force teams out of those switching looks. like Orlando would be a tough matchup on that front because they’re so big and KP had his 15 911 series against them last year. Part of it was he really struggled to impose himself physically, but again, he was just totally out of whack then. And overall, he is a very good theoretical solve for some of Trey’s issues there against switching defenses. But even beyond that one specific concern with Trey, there is inherently sort of a concern with Trey of, okay, what if the three ball is just off? Cuz that’s been a struggle for him in the playoffs and he’s putting up nine of those a game and if the turnover numbers do get high, like there’s so much on his plate, he has to be pretty consistent, reasonably efficient in a way that hasn’t been a given for him across the playoff series so far. if this team wants to make a run. But ultimately in this East, like I like them to win a playoff series. I like them more than Detroit. I think those teams have some similarities, but I think that the Hawks are the better offense with the better offensive engine in Trey. And I think that the defensive talent is comparable honestly. And versus Milwaukee, you always have the Giannis factor of it all where he could just overpower any team. But in terms of the caliber of these rosters, it’s really not close. And I just don’t think the Bucks could make Trey uncomfortable whatsoever. Like they are not one of those teams. So if the Hawks are going to be in rhythm offensively with a defense that is going to be singularly focused on Giannis pretty much like that would be a close call for me, but I would still slightly lean on just Atlanta having a lot more talent overall as a basketball team. I think I like Detroit a little bit more. Like I have that reflected in the standings. I think Detroit could guard Atlanta. Detroit could guard Atlanta reasonably well. I mean I would put Kate or Assar I feel like on Trey and and you know or probably Assar. Absolutely. You put Assar on him. No question it’s Assar. And that’s a really good matchup for sure. So that’s tricky. I do think Duran is somebody who Trey would be able to attack though in more conventional pick and roll coverages. But Assar is a really sticky, really good matchup for Trey. So that’s interesting to shout because they are so dependent on Trey’s offense. But I would also say you look at the other side of the ball, you’re putting Dyson Daniels on Cade. And the Hawks actually have more quality perimeter defenders who they can throw at a Cade than the Pistons do in the other direction. So I would still trust the Hawks offensive formula more. And that’s really just what concerns me with Detroit. Even though I think that they’re going to be an okay offense, it’s going to probably come down to how much of a difference Jaden Ivy makes here and how much easier he can make life on Cade. Because right now, I worry about him being overtasked and I’m less confident in him holding up in that spot as a real offensive engine than I am with Trey. I just think Trey is better at that. So, they’re in the same range, but I like the Hawks more. And like if everything hits for them, I think the ceiling is absolutely higher. like KP man, what he can do at his best as a scorer of the basketball, it is big time gamechanging stuff. And so they just have multiple guys who it can be really difficult for defenses to game plan for. And that’s not the case for Detroit. Detroit has one guy who even then he’s not the level of an offensive player that Trey is. So I’m going to stick with Atlanta there comparatively. And I do have them hosting a playoff series and I have them winning a playoff series. Now, Logan, we’re going to see a bit of a drop in this division. Who’s next for you? I’ve got Miami is my next team in this division. I have them going 40 and 42. They will be in my playin as the nine seed. I have Miami going 39 and 43. I have them as my eight seed. I have them finishing with the same record as Boston. And I think I said Boston was going to be my eight seed, but I’ve changed my mind. I like the Heat a tiny bit more, and I’m going to give them the nod to actually get into the playoffs. So Miami is in this spot now, Logan, where obviously Jimmy has been traded and we were clamoring for them to go and make some big move for years and they ended up just sort of twiddling their thumbs and yeah, they made the finals in 2023, but the talent on the roster just clearly wasn’t there for them to make another deep playoff run after that. And so now here they are. You’ve got them as a playin team. How are you feeling about Miamiy’s outlook this season? I’m feeling okay. I’ve kind of just felt okay about Miami for the past few years, even when they had Jimmy Butler on the roster. One interesting stat, uh, this is courtesy of NBA.com. 22 of Miami’s 45 losses came after leading by double digits. It was tied for the most by any team since play-by-play data started being tracked. Uh they also lost 15 games when they led after the third quarter. That was tied for the most by any team in the last 41 years. Like Miami would just fall apart late in these games because of their, you know, just stagnating offense. And I am still worried about that. I I I guess my two biggest concerns with Miami this year, one is the offense. They do add Norman Powell, but it’s like, oh my god, is he their best offensive player? I think so. Not really ever a situation you want to be in. And then my other big concern is just if they make any moves before the trade deadline. And the reason I say that is just I think that I don’t know what Miami is going to do. Miami is a confusing front office with Pat Riley leading the charge. Like I could I could definitely see Miami just saying we’re going to hold on to all of these solid veterans and we’re just going to be middle of the pack. sneak into the playin, heat culture, baby. See if we can upset the one seed and go on a run again. I can definitely see that. But if Miami takes a long hard look in the mirror, I could also see them saying, “Well, we have Andrew Wiggins, we have Norman Powell, we have I don’t know who the hell would be interested in Terry Rosier. Maybe Da’Von Mitchell.” And they go, “Let’s deal these guys. Let’s get some assets for the future.” But do they want to keep Bam content? I don’t know, man. There’s a lot of questions about just roster building and philosophically that I have about Miami and what their actual goals are for the future. If they stand pat, with this roster, though, I think they should have an above average defense and probably a bottom five offense. I think this offense is going to be bad, man. Oh, I mean, Tyler Hero is going to be out. I think Tyler Herro took a leap last season. Yeah, but he’s only going to be out for like a couple weeks, right? Right. He’s supposed to come back mid November. I think I still have my issues with Hero’s offensive game. He got better getting downhill and he improved as a playmaker last season. I think he should be pretty good, but he’s not a guy that I look at as like an offensive engine. You know what I mean? Do they start DaVon and Hero? Do they start Hero and Norm? I don’t know. I think the defense is going to be pretty good. Like fringe top 10 kind of level, but I think the offense is going to be bottom 10. And I think they just kind of give it back. I think they’re going to be about 500. Man, hero is a question mark for me in terms of if he improves. Yoic is an X factor for me in terms of how much he improves. The big swing guy to me is Khalil Wear, though. Um I I I want to see what level Wear is at as a three-point shooter. He was just 31% last year on about two attempts a game. He was near 40% on pretty low volume in his final year at college. That’s a swing factor for me. If he can get up to like 35% and then the other and then defensively for me wear too. I was disappointed at the level where was at as a rookie in terms of being a a legitimate rim protector and just how viable those double big looks are going to be with him and Bam because I think those can get generally kind of clunky. So Miami’s got a lot going on this year, man. I think at the end of the day they’re just going to be around average and they’re just going to be balanced out and I they probably don’t make any moves. Like if you pushed me to make a guess, I think they probably just stand pat with this roster and go full heat culture playin mode. Um yeah, that’s what I’m expecting from Miami. I totally agree, dude. And I am predicting that this will be their fourth straight year as the eight seed. I just realized obviously one of those years they made the finals but the other two years they got destroyed in the first round and that’s what I would expect again this year but I totally think that they’re going to ride it out. I mean the Heat just are like fundamentally opposed to the idea of a rebuild straight up. They haven’t considered it in the spo era and to be fair for most of the time like it wouldn’t have made sense to really consider it. But then you also have the few years between LeBron and Jimmy when they were just kind of holding on and they’re like, “Let’s scrap our way to 40something wings with Gorand Dragic and Hassan Whitide and Josh Richardson and like it’s just their identity. They always want to be competitive and I think that they will be competitive.” Now, obviously there is a very hard ceiling on this roster, but I think it’s respectable enough where they will ride it out. And I do sneaky like this roster, man. I got to say, I look at the overall talent they have, and I think they’re pretty solid all around. I also think Bam’s going to have a better season than he did last year overall. His offensive struggles out the gate to me were outlier bad. That’s not to say I don’t have my frustrations with Bam because I do, especially when he is overtasked offensively. I was going to say they just put him in a bad situation. They did, but he was also shooting terribly. But then after February 1st, he gave you 219 and four on 60% true shooting. So if we get to a playoff series, am I going to worry about his inconsistency creating for himself? And the fact that he doesn’t really get easy offense created for him anymore. He doesn’t really have like that great pick and roll ball handler who he’s paired with, and he doesn’t roll that much as is, and he’s fallen more and more in love with the jumper, which can be inconsistent. The touch can be inconsistent. Yes, these are all things that if you’re saying, “All right, Bam, we need you to be the guy in a playoff series.” That worries me. But over the course of a regular season, I believe he’ll have a better year than he did offensively compared to last year. Hero is going to be out at the start of the year, but it doesn’t seem to be a big thing whatsoever. And like, he was a star creator for you last year. So, I think that he gives this team a decent enough offensive floor. And you look at the supporting pieces, dude. Norman Pal is an elite offball scorer. I mean, this guy’s got a pretty rare combination of really effective slashing and straight up elite three-point shooting. Absolute flamethrower off the catch. So, he’s not somebody who you’re going to give a ton of ball handling responsibility to, a little bit of that. But, for the most part, like I just think he’s a guy who plays really well off of your offensive centerpieces and can light you up. I mean, even if he doesn’t have the ball in his hands that much, he can give you 20 points per game for a stretch on 65% true shooting. He was crazy efficient last year. Andrew Wiggins is a really good two-way wing. He is the one guy you would look at and say, “Okay, maybe he’s the trade piece just because the contract, the archetype, he’s somebody who I could see a contender being interested in.” But for now, he’s a Heat and I think he’s probably going to remain a member of the Heat. And he’s a very good two-way wingman. I think that he will buy into the Heat defensive identity here and he’s got pretty impressive tools when it comes to one-on-one perimeter defense. offensively. He can shoot 37% from deep and get himself his own shot in spots. And the guy who I really like here who is maybe more slept on is Nicole Yoic. I think as a doit all wing, he is very good. They extended him four years 62 million just uh a week ago. I love it for Miami. I think that that is a great teamfriendly deal. I have been in on Yovic for a couple years and there hasn’t been a breakthrough, but there’s been consistent progression. Last year he gave you 114 and three on 60% true shooting. I think he’ll be in a bigger role this year. I think that they should just start him. I I think that their best starting lineup presuming health is DaVon, Hero, Wiggins, Yoic, Bam. I would rather go with that group than the double big look. I mean, I think that we’ll see a bit of everything. And I would rather bring Norm off the bench to have a flamethrower there as opposed to having two suspect defensive guards in my starting lineup. I think that DaVon is a better compliment and cover for hero in that way. And like I feel pretty good about that as your top seven overall. But specifically with Yoic, I’m going to put him on outside most improved watch. I don’t think there’s quite enough upside for him as a creator and I don’t know that there’s quite enough opportunity here for me to say like he’s my guy for that award, but it’s not hard for me to see him being like a 176 and six guy for you who’s also a plus defender because he’s legitimately good on that side of the ball. And offensively, he’s got really good passing feel. He’s a good rim finisher. He’s a pretty good jump shooter. Like shoots the three ball with pretty high volume on a permanent basis and pretty well. and he is an 81st percentile pick and roll creator last year. So, there is that combination of the size, the pretty good driving ability, the pretty good jump shooting with the passing with the plus defense that makes me think, yeah, that guy’s just a really good basketball player all around. So then you look at DaVon, he’s a really good point of attack defender and he’s a good playmaker and was shooting the ball really well and he’s just kind of like a spark plug for this team where they do have the combination of the solid young stretch big and the rim protector. That’s like the theoretical mold for him. I’d like to see him be more consistent on both sides of the ball there. Shoot the three a little better, be more effective protecting the rim. But he was a rookie. I think he’s very talented. I think he totally has the potential to do that. And then the depth here, you’ve got Roier, you’ve got Hawz, you’ve got Fonteio. Like, it’s fine. I just feel like they’re pretty solid at every position. And I think they will be an above average defense because they always are. The personnel isn’t like great there. But it is pretty good with DaVon and Wiggins along with Bam. And Bam just holds so much together defensively, even with his rim protection issues, his switchability, his activity all over the floor, what he does on the glass. And Spo in terms of just schematically and culturally giving you a defensive floor is the best in basketball. So they’ll be good there. And I think they’ll be a decent enough offense. I do not think they will be a bottom five offense. I definitely don’t agree with that. I think they’ll be a little bit below average, but there’s a good bit of talent here, man. like in terms of guys who they’re relying on. There’s nobody who is not at least a respectable offensive player. So, they’re in an underwhelming spot, especially when you consider it’s Miami. It’s sort of a prestigious franchise. They were in the files a few years ago. They’re going to refuse to rebuild. That’s just the way it is. But so, they’re just wanting to stay afloat like Yeah. This they’re just so obviously stuck in this. You’re not going to be a high seed in the playoffs, but you’re not going to be at the bottom of the East. They’re just smack dab in the middle of the pack, man. Absolutely. And that’s where they want to live, I guess. But considering that, I think they’ve done a decent job putting together a roster to stay competitive now, getting Dave on for cheap, getting Norm for cheap, getting Andrew Wiggins back in the Jimmy Butler deal, drafting well with Khalil Wear and Yovic, like the development of Hero. I’m sure there are certain Heat fans who would much rather like trade some of these guys, Bam and Hero and Wiggins and I don’t know everybody and just bottom out and start over. But that’s not how Miami is going to do it. There is one more interesting guy here, Logan Yakuchonis. First round pick for them who really slid a little further than I was expecting in the draft. I knew that he was a guy who certain teams might be out on, but I certainly liked him a lot more than the 20th player in this draft, which is where he ends up going. How do you feel about that pick for them? And what are your expectations for him? Yeah, I like the pick as like a long-term upside bet. I don’t really think he makes a bearing on on what they do this season. Uh everything really is going to uh hinge on Yakonis’ shot. You know, I like his ball handling chops. um his feel out of pick and roll. I like his intermediate game in the mid-range. Like I think he’s pretty good at getting like into the teeth of the defense and getting to pull up jumpers. Like I like his feel and his IQ and his ball handling ability um in crowded areas, but I think I think it’s going to hinge on his shot ultimately. Um but he’s got good size for uh a point guard. Yeah, he he I’m not going to guarantee it, but I think he could be the point guard of the future for Miami. I definitely think that’s on the table. I like Jackonis a lot. He was my number 11 prospect in this class and like super productive offensively. Big role in college and quite efficient in spite of the fact that like he didn’t shoot the three ball in terms of efficiency as well as you maybe would expect because I think he’s a better shooter than the numbers indicate. He’s an elite free throw shooter. He was shooting it really well from deep before he got hurt and he takes a bunch of tough threes off the bounce, step backs. like I think he’s going to be a very good shooter. And even though he didn’t shoot the ball super well in college in terms of efficiency, he was still efficient because he’s super crafty in terms of his rim finishing, gets there a good bit, finishes well when he gets there, gets to the line a [ __ ] ton, and then he’s absolutely one of the best passers in this class. So for me, the questions are more so, is he overwhelmed by highle NBA athletes defensively? Does he have an ability to create good offense without having a screen set for him? Like, okay, if he’s facing a really good switching defense, I I could worry definitely about his isolation ability to create space and create good shots in that context. And then I’m not as worried about the turnovers with him because I think a lot of it is a product of like aggressive, creative passing, which I like, but also some of them are handle related, getting overwhelmed athletically. like to see him cut down on those and I would actually like to see him add more of an intermediate game. I I think that that would add a little bit more nu nuance to his scoring overall and then defensively is he going to be able to hang is really the biggest question with Yakonis overall. So there is kind of a boomer bust aspect because you’re putting your eggs in the basket of this offensively slanted guard who’s probably going to be a pretty high usage guy who has a couple of questions offensively and a number of questions defensively. But I just think the talent in the upside is too good for him to slide all the way to 20. So long term, I do like that pick a lot for them. Yeah. I just wanted to add, you were talking about him getting downhill. He was 10th in free throw attempted uh free throw attempts per game uh in all of the NCAA last year. He’s a crafty honky Logan. That’s exactly what he is. This year though, I agree. I think he’s probably not going to get on the floor all that much because of the defensive issues and I think it’ll be a transition for him offensively, but long term I do like that pick. And then the last key that I would lay out for the Heat is Bam’s offense. If they want to be a solid offense, if they want to be competitive in a playoff series, he does have to be better than he was overall last year. But again, I do think that he hit that stride later in the season. So, this Miami team is definitely better than last year’s in my opinion, and I guess they’ll be kind of a scrappy first round draw for the top seed, but at the same time, they just don’t have the talent. They don’t have the offensive juice needed to actually put a scare into anybody. These last two teams, Logan, are not going to put a scare into anybody at all, except for maybe their own fan bases. It’s the Hornets Wizards battle. Who is next for you in this division? By the way, remember that these two fan bases had like a massive feud last season over who was actually the shittiest team. Well, they wanted to be the better of the two teams. And that, my friend, is uh the definition of a [ __ ] off. No lie, I’ve got the Hornets. Uh I have Charlotte going 27 and 55 and they’re going to be my 13 seed in the East. Logan, you and I agree exactly on the Charlotte Hornets. So, what is your outlook for them? More specifically, what are you expecting from the Hornets? You know, I think this team is actually going to be pretty damn fun to watch when they’re fully healthy. Uh, one of the biggest swing factors for this team, I think, has to be the health of LaMelo Ball. The guy missed, you know, over half the games in 2023. In 2024, he barely played over half the games. This last season, uh, he just had surgery in April on his right wrist and his right ankle. And I just think that’s super important to mention every season with Charlotte. That is the reason ultimately why I have Washington winning more games. Like, I just think that Charlotte has a player the caliber that Washington doesn’t have. Even though I have my gripes with, you know, some of the nuances in LaMelo’s game, like his shot selection and stuff like that, I do think they’re gonna be very fun to watch with the additions we saw them make in the offseason, specifically in the draft. Khan Canuple uh I love as an addition to an offense. I think he is just a seamless plug-andplay kind of guy who uh is going to shoot near 40% uh from deep. I think he’s going to be an elite three-point shooter, an elite spot-up guy off the catch. I think he’s got a little bit more uh ball handle and playmaking chops than people maybe wanted to give him credit for. I think he can bring some of that supplementary playmaking and ball handling. Uh Liam McNeely good size for a spot-up guy. Really smooth stroke. I think when you add two guys like that off ball to an offense with LaMelo Ball, like the spacing and I think the shooting is going to be at a really high level for Charlotte. Then, you know, I haven’t even mentioned Brandon Miller, who I like probably more than anybody else on this roster as a building block, even considering LaMelo, you know, especially with his injury concerns. I think Miller probably has the highest upside of any guy here. So, I think they’re going to be a really fun watch. I think the offense is going to be dynamic. I think they’re going to play fast. Uh, they’re going to shoot the hell out of the ball. Should be a lot of fun. Defensively and on the glass, I think they are going to get [ __ ] dogged. Is Mason Plumbley gonna start at center for this team, Carson? In the big 2025 to 2026, it’s going to be the one and only Musa Diabate, baby. Reggie Evans reincarnated. How often do you see a pure rebounder starting in the NBA these days, Logan? Not a particularly good defensive player, not a particularly good rim protector, very, very limited offensively, but a hell of a rebounder. That’s Musa Diabate for you. I think he’ll start. So, there’s that. Uh, sure. You know, I wish we could get a Peabody and Sherman and hit the time machine and go draft Donovan Klingan instead of Salon, but Mhm. Yeah. I think the Hornets are going to be fun. That’s that’s the optimistic thing. I I like what they did in the draft getting K Brener, McNeely, uh, Canupple. I I think the I think they should play at a pretty high pace and they should shoot the cover off the ball, but I think this defense is going to be among the worst in basketball. I think this is going to be a bottom five defense. So, those are the negatives, man. Defense glass. And then LaMelo is probably going to again miss a significant amount of time, but I finally I do like what the Hornets did in the draft and I think they should be an entertaining team for this next season. And Eric Collins can call the hell out of a basketball game. I think he’s a great basketball announcer. Yeah, me personally, I got nothing more to say about You don’t like Eric Collins in basketball? No, he’s fine. Okay. I think he’s good for a Hornets game. Sure. Look, I mean, everybody’s going to be at my door with the pitchforks anyways and and the tiki torches and everybody’s going to be saying, “Come on out, Carson. Come on out. We got to chemically castrate you. We got to hang you upside down and spin you around and give you motion sickness. I’m done with Eric Collins discourse for now. But that was kind of an optimistic outlook from you about the Hornets, Logan. I don’t know. I heard the word fun a number of times. I heard the word dynamic. I think Charlotte’s going to be fun. I think that’s optimistic. I think Charlotte might be depressing again. I do think at full strength the offense can be decent. Here’s a stat for you, Logan. Now, this was only 432 minutes last year. So, think about that. That’s like nine full games of basketball, basically. But in those minutes, LaMelo and Brandon Miller together produced a 117.8 offensive rating. That’s pretty good. The problem is in all other minutes combined, which makes up a vast majority of the season, they had under a 107 offensive rating. just absolutely terrible Washington Wizards level or we could just say Charlotte Hornets level because I think they ended the year 29th in offensive rating even though with their two best players on the floor they were actually a pretty good offense but LaMelo and Miller were never healthy and that remains a concern with this team that remains a big concern but let’s be optimistic for now let’s presume health I think that those two give you a decent enough foundation most of the credit goes to LaMelo obviously as being the primary ball handler here the real volume score, the dynamic playmaker. Even though, yes, also I have my issues with his offense, some of the high turnover numbers. I mean, he’s just brutal when it comes to getting to and finishing around the basket. Very limited there. And the shot selection and efficiency can be really rough. You also understand he’s trying to do what he can to carry a Hornets offense that was really lifeless without him last year. This year, I think there’s a little bit more talent around him. It’ll probably be a similar vibe, but LaMelo makes this team’s offense significantly better than the disaster they are without him. Brandon Miller, I do love the shooting with him. There are some areas that he needs to improve as well, but he is nevertheless somebody who can give you 20 a game on decent efficiency and does bring that highle jump shooting value. And then I do think that Conppel is going to complement them. Well, you mentioned the elite shooting is what everybody thinks of with him first, of course. And he is a phenomenal shooter, and he really knows how to weaponize that. Like, he is somebody who is willing to do all the little things. He’ll screen for other guards. That’ll be fun to see. LaMelo Canipple, twoman game. Brandon Miller Canipple two-man game. Why not? Let’s see it all. Let’s see him playing off of everybody. And he’s smart moving without the ball, relocating. And then as an onball secondary or tertiary guy, I think he’s solid. He was a very efficient pick and roll creator last year. Now again, he doesn’t do a ton of ball handling, but he’s got really good passing feel. He’s a really good passer overall. So, he’s got this craft to his game where he uses fakes well. He can play well coming around screens off the catch. Like, he’s got that intermediate game that you like. I just think he’s going to be a really good offensive player and I think that he will make life better for a LaMelo and for Brandon Miller. And then I hate to even mention this guy because I don’t even know why he’s still around, but Miles Bridges is a lot more efficient when he plays with LaMelo. If you can simplify his offensive role a little bit, last two years, he’s got over a 7% true shooting improvement with LaMelo compared to without him. Do do you think the offense is going to be as bad without those guys on the floor this year since they added Ston and Denwitty? Well, and you got T-Man the man who hopefully will be healthier this year. They’ve got bench creators. I mean, specifically, I look at man and Sexton more so than Denwy. I don’t really know how many minutes big Spence is going to give you in the big 2026, but I think he’s like a contingency plan. Yeah, they’ve definitely stocked up in that like bench ball handler mold and probably some of that is also just like LaMelo insurance preparing for him to be injured for 40ome games and I’m good with that group overall. I mean Ston is certainly a very good value ad considering Nerkach was useless for this team. He’s a pretty efficient scoring guard and skilled and Trey man is very much a kind of that boy nice viewing experience. I mean the bag is sick and he brings enough offensive juice to where it’s like yeah you could see him being a 15 point per game scorer for this team and a capable playmaker. Like that’s really what he was doing last year before he got hurt. So McNeely will bring shooting immediately with good size. They’ve got Grant Williams and Josh Green as fine vets. Honestly, I think the offense can be okay, but that’s really all that this team has going for them is like, yeah, they can be an average offense. The defense is going to be a disaster. I would expect bottom three in the league. The center situation is absurd. And look, Musa Diabate plays with a lot of energy, and I appreciate that. and he’s athletic enough to where like I think he’s the right choice to start for this team, but he’s still so limited offensively and it sucks to not have a play finishing center to pair with LaMelo. Like that would just be so great for him to someday have one of those pick and roll finishing scoring bigs and and he just doesn’t have that. And then health is such a major red flag with this team. like we can talk ourselves into, oh, with LaMelo on the floor and everybody out there, they can be capable on offense specifically, but LaMelo’s averaged 35 games per year over the last three seasons. And I just think you got to expect him to miss about half or a little bit more than half of the games. That’s been the consistent track record, unfortunately. And without him, I do think the offense here becomes dire. Like, I like Sexton. I like Man as your bench ball handlers. Once you put them in a spot of, okay, can you replicate what LaMelo does with volume scoring and playmaking and be the primary ball handler for this team, then I think it all falls apart and you’re looking at one of the worst offenses in basketball again. So, I guess we both have the Hornets winning 27 games. We feel similarly there was a little bit more pep in your step and and sing song and humidity. I got nothing good to say ever about the Hornets, so I figured, you know, I’d try. It just broke my heart having to look our good friend Matthew Spawnour in the eyes as you could see the glimmer in his eyes, the hope for a better future for the Hornets. And I’m just not sure I’m seeing it. But if there is a better future, Brandon Miller is going to be a big reason why. And I’ve been a big Brandon Miller guy. I liked him more than Scoot Henderson, which was a controversial opinion at the time as a prospect. His ceiling and his effectiveness this year and beyond is really going to hinge on two things. his rim finishing and rim scoring overall and his defense because his jump shooting is great as a pull-up shooter, as a catch and shooter, off movement. Like his pure shooting ability at his size is really special. And I also think his playmaking feel is good. His handle is quite good for his size. He’s got a nice like runner game to him. So all of that stuff is is very good. And that gives him this ability to put up 20 a game last year like he did. Even if it wasn’t a meaningful 20 points per game or a super efficient 20 points per game, like he’s got the skill set to do that already so young in a bad offensive situation. Very bad. And defensively, he’s got serious tools. Like he’s got the ability to be an impactful secondary rim protector and have some real matchup versatility and be a good defensive rebounder. We saw all of this at Alabama. I mean, he was a really impressive defensive talent, but a lot of this stuff has to come together. Is he going to be somebody who at this level fully buys in defensively or is he going to be more focused on I’m the star offensively and so I’ve got to take my foot off the gas a little defensively. We’ll see. This is not a culture that incentivizes competitive defense at this point. So, that is still really to be determined. Offensively though, we do have a more concrete issue to point to, which is the rim scoring. 10th percentile rim frequency, 19th percentile rim efficiency, a free throw rate of 0.16, which is so low and is under half what it was in college. One of the things that I liked about Brandon Miller as a scoring prospect in college was he was very good at manipulating defenders into free throws for himself. that has not happened. And he’s just not very explosive, right? He’s not somebody with the burst to really get by you off the bounce. I like his change in pace, but more often than not, he uses that instead to get to a short jumper or get to a floater compared to getting all the way to the basket. And I also think that he does need to add strength so he can play through contact more effectively as a finisher. I still like Brandon Miller a lot. I think even if the rim finishing stuff doesn’t get significantly better with his shooting and solid passing feel and if he taps into his defensive value, like that’s just a really good all-around wing that I would want no matter what. But the rim finishing is a major limiting factor for him right now. And the health unfortunately is now a concern with him too. like I I really hope that he stays healthy, but obviously he suffers a season ending injury last year and only plays I believe it was 27 games. So that’s something to monitor here as well. And then you’ve got the other high draft pick for them from last year, Ton Salon, who I just don’t think there’s any chance he’s ready to be an actual decent rotation player this year. He’s so far away. Yeah, I don’t have anything on Salon. He’s a project pick at the time. He’s a project pick at the time and I really did not like him as a project pick at the time, but it feels like he might eternally live in Bruno Kaboko years away from two years away mode. He does play hard and he is athletic. However, he is so so lacking offensively in just about every way. The guy shot 40% on two-pointers last year, 28% on threes. again, he’s multiple years away from being able to fit into an actual NBA role. But when you look at the young guys here, I am very confident in Khan being successful. I do remain a Brandon Miller optimist. And so that’s the light at the end of the tunnel for the Hornets here. And obviously, if LaMelo can stay upright, he is a very talented offensive player, but not as reliable a building block for the franchise as I think people would have hoped when they picked him. Certainly after his second year, it’s the unfortunate experience of being a Charlotte Hornets fan, Logan. You end up with a lot of heartbreak. And you know who else knows just as much about that. Except they do have one title in their franchise history, but unless you were around in 1978, you didn’t get to see it. The Washington Wizards, Logan, what’s your prediction for them? I don’t know if this is too optimistic. I have the Wizards going 24 and 58 and they’re going to be my 14 seed. We are pretty much right in the same spot here again. and I have them winning 23 games as my 14 seed. So, what stands out to you with this Washington team? Really just the young guys. I know that they made the uh move in the off season to acquire CJ McCollum and now they have both CJ McCollum and Chris Middleton on their roster, which they kind of stick out like sore thumbs. Uh I don’t know if those guys get dealt. I don’t know if they just play out the year and help mentor the young guys. I don’t really know what the outlook is for those guys. Mhm. I mean, really all I’m looking for is how much better all of the young guys get. Um, Alex Sar is probably the biggest one, even though I’m more confident, I think, in Balo, Kulabali being like a really good rotation. I’m probably more confident in Koulali and Trey Johnson being like really impactful in their roles than I am Sar just because I do still do feel like Sar’s a bit ways away offensively. Well, like I think Sar is really talented defensively. I think he showcased that last year. I just don’t think he’s super physical. Um but don’t you think that Kulabali is also a ways away offensively every bit as much? I’m more confident I feel like in Kula Bali like Sar just all Sar takes is catch and shoot threes and threes he just has no inside the arc game like at all. He doesn’t play physically at all. He doesn’t he doesn’t weaponize his size or strength at all. Like and he’s not like a super he’s not the biggest center but he’s not like super wiry. I I still think he can fill out his frame more but he doesn’t he’s not physically imposing at all. He is very finesse-based and for that reason I’m just concerned about him in general. Like he’s so dependent on the three-point shot and that shot is still so inefficient for him that if he doesn’t figure it out, it’s like what the [ __ ] does this guy do offensively? Like nothing. Just nothing at all. Well, he’s got just about the worst shot diet of any player in basketball. And this was the concern with Sar as a prospect. And he was my number one guy in the class because I loved his defense so much. I still think he’s going to be an awesome defender in this league and was very impressive defensively as a rookie and offensively. There are good things that he does like his passing feel is pretty damn impressive. His short roll playmaking for being a rookie sevenfooter is not something that you see a lot. However, as a scorer, yeah, I mean, you’ve got major issues because this is a guy who is obsessed with being exclusively a finesse, primarily perimeter player who is just not good at that stuff. He was in the 12th percentile in terms of scoring efficiency as a role man. Really, that’s overwhelmingly popping though. But out of pick and roll, Logan, the guy shot under 40% on two-pointers and 26% on pick and pop threes. That’s the roll guy. That’s as the roll guy. Absolutely terrible. Across all the self-created play types, he scored 71 points per possession. That’s really bad. And it’s not just like Alex needs to flip a switch and be like, “Okay, definitely his shot selection has to change dramatically, but he also does have actual issues as a a paint scorer, too.” Like big issues. He’s really struggled finishing at the rim. I think we straight up need to see him add strength. He needs to learn to play with more physicality. And his paint touch was bad. Shot 32% inside the paint outside the restricted area. That was another concern with him as a prospect on these nondunk finishes. He struggled and he has continued to struggle. So, I do love the guy’s defense. I think there is a really impressive combination of mobility and rim protection that he possesses, but as a scorer, he’s got all his eggs in this basket of I am going to become a good perimeter player. I am going to become a good jump shooter and I’m just not sure he’s ever going to be any good in that way. Like I can’t even say that he’s decent. I want to try to put a positive spin on it. And I guess the only spin that you can say is most 7 foot teenagers wouldn’t even be able to get up five threes a game and make 31% of them. And 68% from the line isn’t bad, but like it’s so so far away from actually being functional for him as an NBA player for being remotely effective. So, I can’t write off the possibility of him becoming a solid jump shooter, but I don’t know that it’s likely. Yeah. And so, I mean, Sar and Kuli are both like pretty significantly flawed offensive players that I think are plus defensively. And then Trey Johnson, I definitely am most confident in being like a really good offensive player and scorer for this team. I don’t know if it’s going to be immediate in year one. Again, rookies are rarely, you know, super efficient high volume scorers. I think Trey probably gives you thinkif is 15 15 points per game isn’t ridiculous, right? Like I think he could go 15 to 18 as a rookie. Um maybe he’s a naturalb born scorer, man. I mean that’s what he does out there. I would say maybe like 54 55% true shooting or something like that I think is is possible for a guy like Trey. He’s a really talented scorer. He’s probably the guy I’m most excited about to just watch this year for Washington just because Sar and Kabali are so like bad offensive. They’re just not fun to watch. Trey Trey is fun. I like Bub Carrington. I don’t think he has the highest ceiling. I think he’s going to be a decent point guard in this league. So, I think all of this year is just about the internal development of these young guys and what you get out of them. Like you said, I I wish I could say I was more confident in Sar Koulali figuring it out. I’m I’m not hitting the panic button because it’s year one, but I am close with Sar. I’m I’m nervous. It I don’t know, man. And there’s just like some rookies that you watch and like kind of like you were talking about with Reach, right? Like first two months, okay, rough and then he figures it out. Obviously Reach is in a in a more privileged offensive situation, right? Because he has Trey Young manufacturing him looks, which I think is important to mention, but for sure, you just didn’t see that kind of leap from Sar at all during his rookie season. And uh No. So I’m worried, but that’s that’s what I think it’s about this year for Washington. Yeah, he started taking on a bit of a bigger role and the volume went up a little bit later in the year, but the efficiency remained absolutely brutal and there were a couple of really good offensive games from him that show you like the theoretical ceiling if everything clicks, but they were surrounded by so many bad offensive games. So, I think that Sar is always going to be a guy who is able to find a role for himself in this league because of the defense and being an elite defensive big is so valuable. But we are definitely on major fraud watch with his offense. I don’t even want to call it fraud watch because I don’t think his offense was ever hyped up, but like this is going to be a huge year. We’re going to have to see some progression from him offensively. And like you said, the situation is unfortunate. I would love to see him paired with like a really good pick and roll playmaker who could create more easy shots for him, but even then he’d have to commit to rolling more. He’d have to improve as a paint scorer. Like a lot of these issues do exist independently in his game. Trey Johnson I like as a pickup for them. He is certainly the most gifted offensive player who they have in their rebuild and I think you set a good bar for him. I mean, I think he’s going to put up points this year. He’s one of the absolute best shooters in this past draft. Just ridiculous in terms of the volume, the efficiency from deep this past year. I mean, 40% from deep on seven and a half attempts per game. He’s an elite elite free throw shooter. All the indicators are there that this dude is a phenomenal jump shooter because he did it off the catch, but he also shot over 38% on threes off the dribble. And uh there is like a niftiness to his game, the self-creation with the step back, but then he can also do it off the catch, off screens, off movement. He’s just a flatout elite shooter. And he’s got a bag as well. We saw him be quite effective as a postup scoring spots this past year. He’s got a really nice fadeaway that he can get to there. So, I don’t have the utmost confidence in Trey ultimately translating because it’s going to hinge on his playmaking where he’s okay. He’s solid, but he does definitely have that score first mentality. He’s not a natural passer. There are some questions about the shot selection and his ability to create rim offense and to finish at the rim is also a question there. And then his defense is also a question, but it’s very easy to see this guy being a very good offensive player because the shooting value is just that significant and the scoring punch is that significant. So, I do like Trey and I thought that he was a good pick for them. Other than that, Koulibali, it’s been underwhelming. I thought that it was a reach at the time when they took him and then I was encouraged by his rookie year and now I feel like his sophomore year was very disappointing and Eurob basket this summer the guy averaged six points per game. Like I would just like to see any semblance of offensive progression and we’re not seeing it. He was an 18th percentile pick and roll scorer last year. He was a 13th percentile spot up scorer. He was a 14th percentile jump shooter overall. I like the defense a lot with him. He’s also got solid passing feel. I like him in transition. Like look, both him and Sar do enough stuff in terms of defense and connective traits to where like they’ll be able to get on the floor, but are they quality starters in this league? It’s going to come down to their offensive competence. And right now, offense still feels like as big a question with Koulabali as it was when he was a prospect. And it was a big question with him as a prospect. And it was especially disappointing because like first handful of games he actually came out the gates hot this past year and he was doing more with the ball and he was shooting well and then that just totally fizzled out and it ended up being a very underwhelming year for him overall. So it’s pretty depressing to look at the Wizards state of being overall just like when you consider how long they’ve been shitty because the last time Washington went 500 was 2018. Logan and then they tried all the different iterations. Yeah, I don’t think Cortat was still on the 2018 team, but it was the wall Beal core and you think about everything that they’ve tried since then trying to make things work around Beal and now like getting into this hard rebuild mode where they’ve been so truly horrible these last couple years and you still don’t feel like there’s a lot to really sink your teeth into here. like just to be that deep into the mud and the muck of being bad year after year and still not have more of like a surely solid rebuild underway. That’s rough. And they’re going to be terrible again this year. CJ and Chris Middleton, I’ve got no problem whatsoever with them having a couple of vets here. I kind of think they need that just so they don’t descend into like a total Looney Tunes ridiculous sideshow of a basketball team. But those guys aren’t really going to impact things. I mean, I guess they minimally raise the floor. I don’t even know how much Middleton is going to play because of health and I could see this being a situation where they’re just mutually like, “Yeah, we don’t actually need you on the court.” Just doesn’t really make sense. You’re like, “Buy him out or something maybe.” The only other two guys I’d point to are uh Kaishan George and Cam Whitmore. Uh they get Whitmore in the offseason from Houston. I don’t I like Whitmore’s tools, the athleticism, some of the stuff. I do think he’s going to blossom a little bit just with some actual playing time. I think he’s got, you know, I really like the physicals with him. The shot is ultimately going to determine his real ceiling, but I think he can do some connective things and be impactful defensively. He’s still pretty young. George, it was a really rough offensive season for him, too, last year. I love his defensive tools. I think he can be a real plus defensively, but again, the offense is is just so rough and feels so far away right now. So, yeah, man. You said it. You said it perfectly, Carson. You really wish there was like a a gem, a building block, a piece where you could point to and go, “Oh, yeah. That’s our guy.” That’s, you know, even like uh not that Brooklyn has their guy, but like you know, Brooklyn has like Cam Thomas, you know, like which is like a Yeah. I mean, let’s not say that Cam Thomas is a guy I’d rather have than Trey Johnson right now at 19 years old or has a clearer path to like actually being a good NBA player who like impacts winning more. The Nets are as [ __ ] as it comes. Just But the thing is, the Nets aren’t as deep into the [ __ ] as the Wizards are. You know, they haven’t been this miserable for this long. It was only a few years ago that they were like, “Yay, we have Katie and Kyrie and Harden and and we think we’re going to go win an NBA title.” Like, but Trey’s Trey is probably the pick that I’ve liked most from them in a long time. I liked the SAR pick, too, but his rookie year was not encouraging. But I’m not out on him. Like, I’m just saying, you haven’t been 500 since 2018. Over the last two years, you have won what 15 and 18 games. Like, you would just like to have something more concrete at this point. But Keshan George, I think, is is fine. I think he’s a very talented jump shooter. He’s got solid playmaking feel and solid defensive tools. Like he can be a capable rotation guy. I’m not really an AJ Johnson guy personally. I know that he generated some hype just with the athleticism. I think he’s still very far away. But Bub is solid. Will Riley is going to be interesting for them this year. I think that he is a guy who’s like got some intriguing traits. I mean, he is really an audacious pullup three-point shooter. And that’s the skill set that he’s going to make his living off of is going to be that overall shooting, too. I mean, off ball, he he can be a weapon there. And he’s got some passing feel, too. But he’s got this super slight frame that I think limits him on both sides of the ball. And although he can get off like a decent jumper for himself kind of whenever because of his size, he can also settle a lot because he really doesn’t have the burst or the strength to play through contact to get downhill. So, I think that he’s a a solid pick, but like I don’t know. There’s just not much that really excites me here with Washington, which is unfortunate. It would have been nice for them to be able to get a Cooper flag. Would have been nice for them to maybe decide to bottom out a year sooner and try to get a Victor Wmanyama, but at the end of the day, this is where they are. So, on that note, we have now previewed every team season in the entire NBA. Logan, we hope that you guys have enjoyed. We’ve still got obviously more NBA season preview content coming. We’ve got a couple of special episodes with guests and then we’ve still got to do all of our award picks and playoff predictions. But if you are a fan of any of the 30 teams, you have now heard us yap about your squad at the very least. And if you want more of our yapping, then you can find it all across our YouTube channel. You can listen to all of our full episodes about the NBA and NFL. And you can find all of our video essays and video breakdowns on our YouTube channel. You can also listen to all the full episodes across all audio platforms. And you can follow us across social media, Tik Tok and Instagram, NerdSh, Twitter, Nerd_SHS. And if you want, you can join our Discord if you want to chat with the gang and be part of our community over there. So with that, we are so close to the NBA season. Logan can’t freaking wait. I’ve been Carson Brabber. I have been Logan Camden. And this was Nerd Sash.
The nerds give their predictions for the Southeast Division, breaking down just how much of a leap Paolo Banchero & the Orlando Magic have really taken, discussing the dramatic improvements made by Trae Young’s Atlanta Hawks, and diving into the inevitable mediocrity of the Miami Heat and the eternally depressing status of the Charlotte Hornets and Washington Wizards.
Timeline:
0:00 Orlando Magic
27:16 Atlanta Hawks
52:52 Miami Heat
1:10:03 Charlotte Hornets
1:25:24 Washington Wizards
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21 comments
1.Orlando
2.Miami
3.Atlanta
4.Charlotte
5.Washington
Mo gueye erasure. Hawks will probably be a top five offense. Update: thanks for the Mo Gueye talk
Hey guys, finally someone to say that Orlando did not have a perfect offseason. But still you say Banchero's shot was not good because of situation, and then do not take that into context with KCP-Bane trade. Bane will have one guy glued onto him for the whole season, as the only shooter in the team, and only optimism that I have is the argument that you told that he is a lot more than his shot (as I expect his shot % to drop to 35 in this situation). Still you know your stuff, most of the takes were 100%true.
I really hope the Heat somehow convince Riley to sign off on tanking, I think internal improvement and a lottery pick in this draft could change our entire outlook.
those damn smiles during the intro 😍
Orlando will win the east
Bold to predict a 60 win Wizards season but Nerd Sesh is never wrong as we know
I FUCKING LOVE THE WIZARDS
After watching Heat preseason game against spurs I don’t think they will be bottom 5 tbh. They are a lot faster pace now and honestly I’d be lying if I said I didn’t have fun watching them. I can see them maybe starting slow cause they are thrown in to the fire instantly. But I think will het way better as the season goes on. Ware and Jovic looks good their other yoynger players look good as well. They still got ro work on the late game execution for sure though.
Good you mentioned Cam Whitmore as a scorer for the Wiz. Stuck behind Amen on the Rockets he put up numbers when he played but lacked focus on D. Now he’s playing next to childhood friend Carrington featuring him for downhill dunks. Wiz are trying to keep their top 8 protected pick (and the Suns pick swap) so they’re intentionally young but they’re going into next season with $80m in cap room. The past 3 years they’ve had to bottom out to keep that protected pick. This is the last year of that.
This is really good stuff boys. Came in as a hawks fan not expecting anything crazy but yall did a fantastic job covering all the important points. I watched the whole thing and thought i knew ball but yall caught me off guard with some of the stuff with other division teams. Know way more than I started with. Keep going with yalls stuff, I’ll be watching, thanks for the god info and I’ll be tuning in. Don’t sleep on Jaylen Johnson and Risacher. Thanks boys for the good content
We were so close to 2 hrs🙁
This is the year of the Hawks…NBA champs…Magic are a very good team..but health issues with Suggs and their depth is not that very good…and ..W.Carter is not an ideal STARTING center…a good bench player!
I'm also assuming that ATL with their aggressive GM ONSI…WILL make a huge acquisition at the Feb deadline that pushes them over the top! Hawks have the AMMO/ASSETS to get it done…the Magic don't have the assets to make a consequential trade…and we all know how Feb can be the SWINGING factor!
Suggs is CLEARLY the #4 Magic player…after that ????????????? Marginal to be honest!
49-33??? Vegas has them winning more than 52 games! They will go 57-25 just on a 2 year 10 percent growth! Let’s Go Magic Play The Song 🎶
Miami will be average this year because they’re still hanging on to the delusion that Bam is a center piece. The future for them is Ware, Niko, & Herro & once they accept that they’ll be a 5th seed and a guaranteed playoff team every year.
My current top 15 east 1.Pacers the defending east champ unless they suck or is dethrone this season. 2. Cavs underachieving for multiple seasons 3. Knicks 4 Magic,5. Detroit 6. Boston 7. Miami,8. Bucks 9. Atlanta 10. Bulls 11. Sixers, 12. Nets 13. Toronto 14. Hornets 15. Wizards
If Wizards get their Magic arts to the next level, then it will Heat up this division. They will use Magic power to turn Hawks in to a Hornet size beings. 😅😅😅😅😅
Paolo in the playoffs is one of the best 3pt shooters in the league. I’m not worried about his jumper during the regular season.
Your channel continues to run racist ads by the laughable 'homeland security' threatening people. Unless you're both white racists–and believe me you don't want to get that reputation among NBA fans–maybe you can stop those ads on Youtube from running supporting your channel. I've enjoyed your content. But there's no excuse for allowing that kind of racist content. YouTube is grotesque and without any moral compass other than making money so I expect nothing of those bags without a soul. I realize you're both essentially children. I get it. But grow up and man up and be decent people and stop those ads if you want any future talking about sports.