Jim Allen interview: Munetaka Murakami good fit for Dodgers? Third base and hitting concerns

Jim Allen interview: Munetaka Murakami good fit for Dodgers? Third base and hitting concerns

What’s up everybody? Welcome into Dodgerheads presented by dogerblue.com part of the mediumlarge sports network. My name is Jeff Spiegel joined today by special guest Jim Allen who operates jallallen.com. He is a longtime baseball writer based in Tokyo and he is here to help us understand the newest player to come from Japan officially being posted. That would be Murakami, a 25year-old left-handed hitter. Uh Jim, first of all, thank you for the time. Uh hello. No, my pleasure. We’re we’re recording this nighttime, my time, morning for you. So, thanks again for for making time for us. Well, it’s 1:30 in the afternoon. Close enough. There you go. There you go. Uh, I imagine you and folks in Japan have watched the end of the Major League Baseball season with great attention. Is that fair to say? Yeah, pretty much riveted. Even, you know, non-B baseball fans have been glued to the TV. What? G, give me just a a quick sense of We know Otani, we know how beloved Yoshu Yamamoto is as well. Has there been a swell in Yamamoto popularity because of what he did this postseason? Not. It’s hard to tell. Okay. It’s It’s hard to tell. Beloved is probably um an overstatement for Yamamoto. Otani is okay. Yamamoto is more of a phenomenon than Beloved. He’s just he’s uh when he was well, of course, when he was here, he was he was such a easygoing. He was a bit of a chatterbox. Okay. It’s hard to imagine now. uh with the media he would, you know, stop and talk to anybody about anything. So, uh it’s hard to say, but as far Yeah, I think the excitement was that Otani is Otani and everybody’s wants to see him do well and Yosh that Yamamoto did it. It was more like I won’t say it was relief, but it was vindication. Okay. It wasn’t like uh he was being turned into another god or anything. He’s always he always had that elite status when he was here. But the fact that he did it in America, too, what he’s been doing over here. Yeah. Uh has been a vindication for a lot of people who’ve had to deal with naysayers and disbelievers. Yeah. What about Sasaki? Obviously a tough debut season for Roki Sasaki. be at the beginning then he gets hurt but vindication for him in the postseason as well. Yeah. Vindication that he actually can do something. I mean he’s he’s had a he’s had the past few years have been kind of trouble for him. Yeah. Although he had he did have his best career year in 2024. Uh he won 10 games for the first time. He stayed in the rotation as long as he had in the past. but he’s always had physical issues since he was in high school. So, this is not new. Um, the whole thing with Sasaki was well, let’s see. I think everybody’s on kind of a let’s see, and I think the wait and see is still there with Sasaki. Yeah. Okay. Well, the next guy in the line of um studs in the NPB making their way over to Major League Baseball is Murakami. Uh, the reason I wanted to have you on it is to give us boots on the ground. you’re you’re in Japan, you’ve been following baseball there, you know a ton about this guy. Um has been posted. He’s a fascinating prospect because he’s 25 years old. He’s left-handed, but there’s some real concerns about the offensive profile. So maybe we’ll just start big picture with the the hopes and expectations you have for him uh coming over to Major League. Yeah. Well, I can uh I’m not a scout. I do talk to scouts. I am aware of the profile. Um he had he had nu uh 2019 2020 he had four basically monster seasons in a row as a kid. He was a he was a 19year-old uh 34 home runs as a 19year-old in NPB which is pretty impressive. And he just kept getting better and better. And then 2022 he wins the um he he wins the triple crown. He’s the youngest triple crown winner. The same year that Roki Sasaki becomes the youngest perfect game pitcher. Uh Monetaka Murakami becomes the youngest triple crown winner in Nepon professional baseball history. He hits 56 home runs, which is not a record, but he has hit uh through this point of his career, he’s hit more home runs than any player of his age. Wow. Although that that’s going to evaporate soon because um he’s now coming, of course, in Japan. It’s going to evaporate soon because he won’t be in Japan. And also because Sadharo O had his breakout season when he was 25. Okay. and well his his his monster 55 home run season I think came when he was 25. So eventually he’s going to run into that. But he has been dynamic. Uh he uh 2022 was his big year. 2023 uh pretty much everything stopped the minute he hit his 55th home run in 2022. That was Sadaro O’s uh Japan record for oh from 1964 and it stood it was ti wasn’t tied until 2001 and 2002 and so for him to tie it was surpassed in 2013. So but for him to tie O’s record at least to tie O was monumental. And then it took him weeks to get to 56. Okay. And he then he he sort of uh flubbed around in the Japan series and then he went into the WBC in 20 uh in 2023 and he was mediocre. Uh he did however of course he had he had two big hits in the finals in the in the semifinals. He had the walk-off double against Mexico and then he had the game-tying home run uh against I think it was either it was the game tying home run against the United States. So he had two big hits in the WBC but that was about it. He then struggled the rest of the year and I talked to him in 2014 for the first time uh in 2024 excuse me 2024. I get my numbers wrong. Please excuse my ADHD. But in 2024, I did talk to him for the first time. He had been a COVID star and we pretty much were kept apart from the players for a few years. And so 2024, I did have a ch few chats with him and really bugged him about what went wrong and he was like, I’m not talking about it. I’m not talking about it. But basically he copied u he tried to assimilate or accommodate all the things he learned from the guys in the WBC particularly show Otani and it just went south completely. Everything was a disaster for two years. He was pretty bad. He was he was still hitting home runs but there were a lot of things that were going on. One is teams adjusted to him. uh he couldn’t throw anything past him. He hit for average and power in 2022. In 2023, uh he was swinging and missing. He was missing fat pitches uh that he’d been putting in the seats the year before. He he just was not able to put it together. He was continually making adjustments and adjustments and nothing was working. And then this year he was hurt on the in he he’s a basically a third baseman. He started as a first baseman. He can play third base adequately. Um, but there are there are people who say he can’t in MLB. They’ve basically decided he can’t play uh third base in MLB. I’m not certain where I think he’s be probably better than some MLB third baseman, but perhaps not the ideal profile. So, he was playing in the outfield on opening day and he was hurt. He missed then missed most of the season. He came back at the end of the season and he started banging. He didn’t hit for average. He was swinging and missing, but when he hit the ball, it really flew. I mean, he had uh won three home run game late in the season. I He had won three Let’s see. I mean, just he played how many games last year? He played 56 games and he hit 22 home runs. Yeah, I saw that. He finished in the top five in home runs in the league playing onethird of the g one-third of the games in the season is a pretty remarkable almost a little more than a third. Right. Yeah. He played Yeah. about uh about 40% of the season. So that was that was on a in terms of the power numbers, it was on a par with his 2022 season and he came in at the end of the year when the the power is a little low when the home runs fly less. And he’s doing it with a dead ball. The ball in Japan is extremely dead now. So, he was really hitting the ball hard. And the three home run games, one went out of the park, one hit fairly high up over the the center field fence and one hit the scoreboard in center field. Which is really a shot. I mean, there were three massive shots. So, he’s he’s got the power. And the scouts have told me that basically they like him. A because he’s got potential. I mean, he’s 25 years old and he has he has this enormous upside. I mean, anybody who hits 56 home runs as a 20 as a uh Yeah. 22 year old 23 year old. Yeah. Has got enormous upside. And so there’s that. He has not made he has not gone back to making solid contact. He also has not done well done extremely well against elite power. Yeah. Oh, against Elite Velocity. So, that’s something that is going to be a challenge for him. Uh, but the scouts all like basically he’s one of about one of a handful of players in Japan who have who who have an MLB power approach. Yeah. And he’s young and he’s already done something. So, it’s not like the talent isn’t there, but there are question marks about him. I mean, he swung and missed a lot this year. Well, and and all everything you just mentioned, by the way. And he’s left-handed, so like not only is it all that, but he but he swings from the left side as well, right? And he is left-handed, which is pretty much the profile of basically what every MLB team so far. the only um the only successful right-handed hitter uh from Japan is Sey Suzuki. Yeah. You mentioned kind of the two biggest question marks that that people have about him. Um the first is the strikeout rate, right? Uh in his best year, that number was like 28 and a half% I believe. It it has gone up to almost 37% of late. Um the fear is that traditionally that number does not go down when you go from the NPB to Major League Baseball. And so um how how concerned would you be about his ability to make consistent contact? Because it’s one thing to be able to hit the ball 120 m hour like he has, but if you’re striking out 40% of the time, that’s a problem. It is a problem. And here’s the thing. I the way I see it, the way I see him, he’s a I won’t say he’s a tinkerer, but he’s a bit of a perfectionist. Okay. And the struggles were really hard on him. I think he’s been he’s been gearing up for this for a couple of years. And first of all, you typically see in players in their last year, very cal often in in Japan, you see players in their last year really struggle, okay? As they’re almost they’re preparing for uh MLB, they’re using their last year in Japan to prepare for MLB. Uh but it’s not every guy. Sey Suzuki had a had a huge season in his last year. Uh Murakami was actually pretty good in his last year. Uh but he struggled almost the minute he said he wanted to play in MLB. Yeah. He went through two years of purgatory. So I I don’t know what to see. My my personal feeling about him is he’s going to be working with people who are giving him very good feedback. uh regardless of what team he goes to, whatever team he picks, I don’t know the dynamics of what he’s looking for, but he’s going to be somewhere where he gets very good feedback and where people will be listening to him. Yeah. Japanese coaches tend to tell players what they should be doing. Okay. It’s a little it’s a little less that than it used to be, but they tend to say, “Well, this is what you should this is what you’re doing wrong.” Whereas the MLB approach is, “What are you trying to do, and let me tell you what I see.” Yeah. So, he’ll be getting feedback, people trying to help him accomplish what he’s trying to accomplish. Um, and he’s very earnest. So I think eventually the adjustments and working with somebody and the confident uh the confidence is a big question but I think that feedback loop that he’s going to have that feedback process is going to help him stay on track. Okay. He has a tend he’s had a tendency in 2023 and 2000 uh 2023 and 2024 to I think lose confidence in the approach he has. Okay. And make subtle shifts. Got it. But if he goes to a place where he’s getting good inputs and good feedback, he’s the type of player that can probably sort of put those into practice. I think he can, but he’s gonna have to. The confidence is going to be the question. Okay. Uh, very often now, he spent a lot of time in the minors getting ready to come back, swinging a lot, and I think that gave him sort of the the boost he needed, just getting his swing where he wanted it without the daily pressure of having to perform. Yeah. Um, the pressure is is a thing. He’s gonna have to He’s He’s young, though. So, the I think he he has room to grow. I think he’s has room to grow into the kind of player uh into a kind of a hitter who could hit 30 home runs in the majors pretty regularly. Yeah. I’m curious. One thing that’s fascinating is everybody, of course, we’re a Dodger show. People automatically connect him to the Dodgers. One, because he’s Japanese, and two, because the Dodgers, it’s assumed, will just spend more than everybody else. One of the trickier things is there’s not an obvious place for him to play this upcoming season if he were to sign with the Dodgers. Maxy is back. He plays third. Freddy Freeman plays first. They have Show Otani at DH. There’s a world where they get creative and Muny goes to second. Murakami plays third. But like from the from my perspective, a guy of of the stature of Murakami would not be choosing a team, and this is where you can correct me if I’m wrong, would not be choosing a team where there’s not an obvious place to play in his first year. Cuz remember, for the folks watching, obviously you know this, Jim, this is a major league contract that he’s going to be signing. It’s not Roi Sasaki where it’s a minor league deal and he he’s going to be spending potentially time in the minors, right? Do you agree with that assessment that he he he’s unlikely to pick a place that that doesn’t offer him, you know, I think that is I think that is fairly obvious. If if there if he doesn’t feel there’s going to if he doesn’t get the fit he needs, there’s no point to go to the Dodgers. Right. Right. Now, a lot is going to depend. My guess is he’ll sign the big the big thing uh for MLB teams now is to sign um players to options to opt outs. Yeah. Now that’s handy for that’ll be very handy for him. My guess he’ll get a two or three year contract with an opt out. And here’s the thing. The way the posting the posting system right now is really broken. Yeah. in that it doesn’t it basically allows MLB teams to dictate everything. So for example uh I mean a great example is Masahi Yamamoto’s excuse me Yoshino Yamamoto’s contract is what three years in an opt out. Yeah we don’t want to talk about that Jim. We don’t like talking about the possibility of Yamamoto opting out at any point. Here’s the thing. The Orics Buffaloos, if he opts out, the remainder four years of that deal, the Orics Buffaloos don’t get paid. Got it? So, it’s essentially if he does stay, it’s a interest free loan for four years, for three years. So, teams love that. uh you say Kikuchi if he has a guaranteed contract uh the Sabu Lions pick up another million dollars another $5 million instead you know that he made the money and they got stuffed uh so that’s that’s something MLB that’s something NPB needs to fix but MPB doesn’t know how I mean they can’t fix their radio if it’s broken they’re pretty lame So, so you’re saying that the contract he’s likely to sign will be like Yamamoto where on paper it might be a longer contract, but he might have an opt out after three years that would allow I think his he will be looking for let’s say two down two years down the road or three years down the road when he’s in his prime. Oh, maybe now the do now I can play for the Dodgers. Okay, go ahead. But I think you’re right. I think he’s going to look for a place where he can play now. So, it might be um Yeah, I I I I think that’s it because he’s going to look for a place where he’s the number one guy at that position. And you think it’s it’s third base? Probably he could. No, I think it’s I think most MLB teams most it’s my opinion is he could play third base, but most MLB teams have pretty much decided he’s a first baseman or a DH. He and I think that has more to do with his body type. Okay. Uh he looks pudgy, he looks and he’s not the fastest guy, but he’s fairly nimble, but the outfield experiment did not work with him. As far as I know, it did not. No. Okay. I mean, they they might they might put him in left field or something, and I’m sure he could handle it. U But you he’s he’s an unusual player. I mean, he’s he’s one of these guys who’s very astute. Yeah. And you can see that he’s the only uh he he’s the only uh only the second player in NPB history to steal three bases in an inning. Okay. So second, third, and home. It’s impressive. Yeah. And it’s he’s not that fast, but he is very astute. He’s very very good base runner. Um he was a mediocre defender when he was when he was a rookie. uh you know missed popups and things, but he’s pretty much got that under control. The biggest thing was his concentration. He’s um he he was he was an adequate defender. He was not a gold glover, but he was an adequate defender. Okay, two last questions and get you out of there. Uh the first one is you mentioned Otani playing with him in World Baseball Classic, right? Do you have any sense of any relationship that Murakami has with the three Japanese players that are on the Dodgers? Not that I know of. Okay. Um but he does. Of course, everybody in Japan looks up to Otani. Yeah. And my guess is that will not end. You know, the the Japanese players in America are very uh interconnected. Yeah. And they do help each other out a lot. So, it’s not like um I I could definitely see him playing for a team that plays in Arizona. Okay. Where in spring training he could be working with Otani and he could be talking to you know say a Suzuki about how the about their adjustments rather than a team in Florida where if he’s especially if you know half the teams play on one coast and half the team play on the other and even if they’re in Florida they might be a world away. Yeah. I remember it was a big deal when Yamamoto came over and when Sasaki came over, there were like these competing narratives of like, do Japanese players want to play on the same team or not? Like is there I don’t think that’s I don’t I don’t think that’s ever an issue unless they are the star. Yeah, I think there there would have been players like that who who demanded to be the star, but obviously that’s not most Japanese play. I don’t think that’s most ch and I think also you know seeing uh how well that Otani Sasaki and Yoshimoto have have uh created a little Japanese community there. Yeah. The little Tokyo and Chevel’s Ravine that the idea that more than one that you know two is a crowd is I think crazy. Yeah. Um last question. Okay. ML, the Dodgers, have they like, let me let me phrase it this way. Are there teams that are being talked about the most in Japan as far as connections to Morakami? Whether it’s teams that have been over there scouting him a ton or teams that there are just rumors connecting him to. Well, yeah, pretty much everybody. I mean, and that all comes from the US. I mean, it’s so the Red Sox have have expressed interest and I I think all the scouts are interested. All the scouts have to file their reports. I mean, some scouts tell me, “Yeah, our team is not because we’re we’re set in the positions where we he we see him we profile him as playing and we can’t see spending that money to get him at this instant.” Yeah. But I think uh yeah, I I think that yeah, whatever you hear over there is going to be the same here. We’re not you’re not going to get any firsthand news here in Japan. Okay. Love it. Love it. Well, Jim, we appreciate No, we appreciate the insight on this. It’s great. There’s a lot of questions and so I was excited when you responded and were willing to come on because like you said, we’re we’re mostly getting like third or fourthhand reports on a guy like Murakami and so to talk to somebody that’s actually talked to him, that’s seen him play, that’s talking to the scouts that are watching him, uh, we appreciate that. Um, jbballen.com. Anything else you want to plug, Jim, as far as where people can find your stuff? No, that is it now. Uh I’m I’m exclusively there. Love it. Well, that is Jim Allen. Again, you can find his stuff jballen.com. Jim, we appreciate the time. Uh enjoy the rest of your afternoon in Tokyo. Thanks again for hopping on with us. And who knows, maybe Morami’s a Dodger. We’ll have you back on to uh to discuss it with us. Well, that would be a blast. Thank you so much, Jeff. Absolutely. Thanks everybody for watching. This is Dodgerheads presented by dogerblue.com. Enjoy the rest of your day.

“DodgerHeads” host Jeff Spiegel spoke with Tokyo-based baseball writer Jim Allen about Munetaka Murakami getting posted to join MLB, concerns over his profile and defense at third base, and potential fit with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
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