Phillies Age and Mets’ Identity Crisis Could Open the Door for Atlanta and Miami

Phillies Age and Mets’ Identity Crisis Could Open the Door for Atlanta and Miami

Every year there’s always a team that everyone expected to do well that falls apart and there’s always a team that exceeds expectations. Will there be that sense of unpredictability in the National League East this year? >> [music] >> You are Locked on MLB, your daily MLB podcast, [music] part of the Locked On Network, your team every day. >> Hello baseball fans, and welcome to Locked On MLB, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, where it’s your team every day. And we are now the number one sports podcasting network. I am your host, Paul Francis Sullivan. Please call me Sully. Follow us at locked on MLB pods on Twitter or whatever it’s called these days. And on Instagram, I’m your pal Sullium at Sully Baseball Podcast on Instagram. But the best way to get a hold of us is right here on the YouTube page. Make sure if you leave a comment, use that hashtag everyday Sully. Today’s episode is brought to you by our good friends over at FanDuel. If you want to be right in the middle of the action this NFL season, visit fanuel.com and place your NFL live bets all season long. Now, let’s go course to the trivia question. Trivia question from last show is, what is the only franchise to not win a postseason game in the 2010s or the 2020s? Um, Gingerbread 327 says, “Is it the Rockies that haven’t won the game since the 10ens?” Nope. The Rockies won the wildcard game in 2018 against the Chicago Cubs. Uh, let’s see. Huggies 6280. Always late because I listen on my run. Uh, it has to be the Angels who have not won uh playoff any more playoff games in the 2010s and the 2020s. That’s correct. It’s the Angels. The Angels have not had a postseason game that they’ve won since the first year of Obama’s first term. All of 2010s and now we’re more than halfway through the 2020s. You could not say once, well, the Angels won that game in a postseason situation. If only they had some stars. Now, I teased that I was going to do an episode about the Angels and their ineptitude, but also some other darker things that are happening right now with the club. I’m going to do that with at least one of the hosts of Locked on Angels, but uh unfortunately there there’s a little bit of an illness going around. So, we’re going to postpone that show. We’re going to get it either at the end of this week or the beginning of next week. On this episode, we’re going to be looking at the Nash League East. The Mets and the Phillies have had very busy and very interesting off seasons and ones that well made one of the teams that everyone says it’s not fair that they buy all their championships. Uh even though we’ve been waiting since ‘ 86 for a championship for the Mets. Uh they’re having a crisis of identity in this off season. another team, the Phillies, are basically putting the band back together, which can be a very risky proposal when the band you’re putting together is getting long in the tooth. And the question I’m gonna ask in this episode is if the if age and a lack of identity could well sandbag the two teams at the top of the division, will that leave an opening for a surprising nationally east champion? Well, first and foremost, let’s talk about the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies won the division last year, and I thought they were going to go all the way. Now, the Phillies have had well, let’s just say it’s been a little bit of an interesting off season. They seem to really, really want to do the status quo. And there’s something you should learn if you follow anything with a team that’s set up by Dave Dumbrosski. Is Dumbrosseski wants to win right now, if not sooner. Dumbrosseski does not care a lick about your prospects. Dumbrossski does not care a lick if a contract you sign is pretty bad in four or five years. If a championship is won, all is forgiven. And for this Phillies team, there’s a sense of urgency going on. They had a uh how do I say this delicately? a surprise trip to the World Series in 2022 ahead of schedule. But unfortunately, since taking a three-game to two in the National League Championship Series in 2023, very little has gone right for the Phillies in the postseason. They dropped the final two games at home to the Arizona Diamondbacks. They lost to the Mets in 2024 and then they lost this year to the LA Dodgers. and they lost this year obviously on the Orion Kekering play. Had they won that game in extra innings, I give the Phillies a puncher’s chance at getting past them and maybe going all the way to the World Series and who knows what would have happened. It probably would have been revenge of 1993. However, they didn’t. And the cast of characters on the team are now a year older. And the most important cast of characters on that team is Bryce Harper. Let’s not kid ourselves. Bryce Harper has to win a World Series championship in Philadelphia. He already has that little bit of the what Bill Simmons would call the Patrick Euing stigma that the team that he was on for all those years, those seven years with the Washington Nationals, the first year he’s gone, they go and they win the freaking World Series. Now, it wasn’t because he was gone that happened, but the fact of the matter is he is ringingless. Now, this year will be the year that he has finally once he steps on the field in 2026, believe it or not, he will then have spent more seasons with the Phillies than with the Nationals. He’s played more games with the Nationals partly because of some injuries especially in 2022 and the fact that they only played he only played 60 games in the co shortened season of 2020. But I digress. He has done what is necessary for the Phillies. He picked up an MVP. He’s been MVP candidate several times. He’s been a silver slugger. He came up huge in the postseason in 2022. less we forget, he was the NLCS most valuable player in 2022. And when they stomped the Mets in that year’s division series, he batted 500 in the four game series. And he added a home run in the World Series that they lost to Houston. But they signed him to a big honken contract and that contract is going to go on till the year 2031, which believe it or not is a lot closer than you think it is. Now, he has already made the move to first base, but they which will probably prolong his career, and when Kyle Schwarber finally retires, he’ll probably head over to the DH spot. But in order to secure his place in what is already a Hall of Fame career to as one of the great figures in Philadelphia sports history, he’s got to deliver that title. And the window of opportunity may not be as long as you think. Teams that have a lot of veterans tend to break down a little quicker. And Philadelphia fans remember how long they kept together that core of players from the 2008 team until they all broke down and had no value. The big difference is they won it all in 2008. Now they never could win one with Cliff Lee and they never could win one with Roy Halliday. But that core, Hamls, Howard, Shane, Victorino, Chase Sutley, Carlos Ruiz, all that crew managed to win a title. This team has it. Now, one of the strengths that the Phillies have had has been their pitching staff and certainly Christopher Sanchez was a Sai Young candidate. There’s injuries to Zack Wheeler last year. Aaron Nola, not 100% sure what’s happening there. Uh, Ranger Ranger Suarez is a free agent as of this recording. Andrew Painter is someone who they have a lot of high hopes for, but he is still recovering from Tommy John surgery. Wheeler is, you know, coming back from surgery and hopefully he’ll be back and at full strength, but you know what? Pitchers tend to break down at this particular point in time. Now, they have some young pitchers. Maybe Zachary McCambbley could be someone who comes up for them. And you know, Lazardo is signed through this year. Taiwan Walker, you there’s you can’t bank on some of these players. You hope that they have enough pitchers, especially if Wheeler and Sanchez are healthy, but they also not sure what’s going on with Rio Muto. Although they did do something interesting with their outfield by signing Adolles Garcia, which means Castanos is undoubtedly going to be dealt. I want to bring up a place where Castanos may wind up a little bit later. Now, they’ve basically brought the band back together in a way, and they’re trying to bring back Riom to really bring drive home the fact that they want the band back together. Kyle Schwarber came back, and that was a bit of a no-brainer. Thompson, the manager, also came back. They’re doubling down that the bad luck that they had with the Mets in 2020, against the Mets in 2024 and last year against Los Angeles could very easily flip the other way. and Dumbrosski has won pennants and with the Marlins, Tigers, Red Sox, and Phillies, man knows what he’s doing to win and he knows he needs to secure this for his legacy. But when you have pitchers who are getting a little bit longer in the tooth right now, there could be a big big, and did I mention big chance that things may not go the right way? Christopher Sanchez and Jesus Lazardo are still on the right side of 30 and probably have a couple more really darn good years left in them. But those years better come pretty quickly and as we’ve mentioned things can flip really fast and pitchers who you think are completely reliable could find themselves falling apart in an awful hurry. Do you remember Corbin Burns? Mr. Sai Young. Now, he wound up pitching well for Arizona this year, but only for 11 games. Sometimes things like this happens. And for the Phillies, you they desperately need to win pretty darn soon in order to well justify the Bryce Harper era. Now, the other team that’s near the top of the standings, but not good enough to make the playoffs last year, has had, let’s be honest, an eventful postseason and one that is putting a lot of their fans into, well, basically an existential crisis. NFL Sundays, they move fast. One big play and suddenly everything feels different. That’s what makes live betting on FanDuel so exciting. You’re not just watching the game, you’re reacting to it in real time. With FanDuel, you can place bets as the action unfolds. Watch every drive, every momentum swing, and every highlight moment. Now, live betting is the best. When the game starts to shift, receiver gets hot, defense tightens up, or momentum flips over turnover. FanDuel lets you jump into the moment. And live spreads and money lines, they adjust instantly. And you can bet on the next touchdown scores or you can bet on drive results or you can bet on who’s going to get the next oh I don’t know safety. Now let’s take a look. We have a game coming up on Thursday between the Rams and the Seahawks. Now, right now, the Seahawks are minus 122 and the Rams are plus 102 even though the game is in Seattle. So, and the spread is plus one and a half for the Seahawks and minus one and a half for the Rams. Do what you want with that information. If you want to be right in the middle of the action this season, visit fanuel.com and place your live NFL bets all season long. FanDuel, the game moves fast. So can you, and so should you, and so will you. Oh, let’s just remind you of a little something. It’s called the Everyday Club. I see some of you are signing up for that. Thanks so much for making us your first listen and you already live with locked on MLB every day. Let’s take up a level. Join the Everyday Club and get locked on MLB with no interruptions. Members only Discord access and so much more. All for $5 a month, $50 a year. Just go to where is it right now? Locked on MLB.supcast.com or check the link in the show notes to learn more. Now, a lot has been said about this bizarre, well, how things have just flipped around for the Mets. A team that was within two wins of the World Series in 2024. They brought in the most soughtafter free agent not named show Otani and a potential Hall of Famer in Juan Sto. They got a historic season, at least for their team, from Pete Alonzo. Nominally, a great season from Juan Sto. They were the best team in baseball in the early summer. Had were a in first place by themselves in the middle of the summer and then woke up and missed the playoffs altogether and barely finished above 500. We all know what happened in the big collapse and since then the Mets have gotten a huge makeover. But has the makeover been anything that is I I I don’t know. that is it’s suddenly is exposing huge holes on the team. Fan favorites Brandon NMO and Pete Alonzo have scrammed. Now NMO was traded and Marcus Simeon gives him quality defense and a veteran that is a respect of all of Major League Baseball, but that’s a lot of offensive production from NMO and from Alonzo that they need to make up. They’ve lost Diaz from their bullpen and they’ve replaced him with Devin Williams who clearly Sterns has fond memories of from his days with the Milwaukee Brewers. But New York fans saw him lay an egg with the Yankees and closers tend to flame out fast. And mind you, what killed the Mets last year? Was it their clubhouse? Was it Juan Sto being sirly? Was it this? Was it that? No, it’s the pitching. It’s always the pitching. and the pitching completely fell apart for the Mets last year. I didn’t pick the Mets to go to the postseason last year because I didn’t trust their pitching. I turned out to be right now. They could sign Fra Valdez and roll the dice. But the fact of the matter is the Mets are going to go into this season right now then reminding us that this is one of the teams that everyone says it’s not fair. They’re going to buy so many championships. Well, something must be fair because now the team is looks like they’re they don’t know what the hell they’re doing. And will they wind up dealing Francisco Lindor? I think are they in a rebuild? What the hell are they doing? They’re in a situation right now and and my Met fan friends are in absolute agony right now because they it’s a little bit like the the movie Carrie that they thought they were becoming the prom queen and they were just having pig blood dumped on them. And for Met fans, this is exactly what they thought was not going to happen with the brand new ownership. It’s no longer the Will Ponds. No, no, no, no. This is they got all the money and they got the guy who put together a winning team in Milwaukee. So, he’s going to be smart. Put them together and they have the money to sign everyone long term. And here we are. Their starting pitching is an absolute mess right now. There’s no getting around this. I’m not saying this cuz I’m a Mets hater. I don’t hate the Mets. I’d like to see the Mets do well, but they have a starting rotation that’s unreliable. They’ve removed their closer and they’re putting in someone who is a bit of a question mark right now. And they’ve lost uh 38 home runs from Pete Lonzo and 25 home runs from Brandon NMO. So, who’s going to protect Juan Sto in this lineup? You know, Lindor is still a tremendous talent and is durable and Juan Stoodto is still a tremendous talent and is durable and you know, they’re improving the defense with Simeon and Lindor up the middle. But what what is this team? They have so much left they have to do. And if they don’t sign Fran Valdez, then I’m looking at this team. This is a 500 team. I remember going into the after the Red Sox disaster in 2011 and they fell apart because their pitching staff fell apart. I was on a show and the talk about the Red Sox prospects for 2012 and they said, “Oh, they’re going to be 90 win team.” I said, “What are you talking about? How are they going to get to 90 wins?” They said, “Their pitching staff is a mess.” And I’m looking at this team now. that 2011 Red Sox team had a massive face plant down the stretch very similar to this. Um, how is it where’s this Mets where is this Mets team going to find 88 wins? 88 wins is probably enough to get to the postseason this year. The National League is very topheavy. Los Angeles, the Brewers, I’m still going to put him there because the Brewers always win. Um, Philadelphia, I’m still going to keep him there even though they’re a aging pitching staff is always a bit risky. I still think the Phillies are the team to beat. But what other team is a 90 some odd win team in this lot? Will San Diego be there? Are they going to start to rebuild as they try to find new ownership? I don’t see where 90 wins or or 88 wins are going to come about for this Met team. There isn’t the big huge honk in free agent that they can just insert into the team right now to make up for the loss of Alonzo and the power that was contributed by NMO. Now they could go and you know pace team you know players together and who knows maybe this is where Sterns will earn his money. But right now, how can anyone look at this team that had a disastrous second half and have taken away two key Jenga pieces from Alonzo and Diaz? I don’t trust whims. I don’t I mean, I’ve made this point before. Closers flame out and they don’t tend to bounce back. So, the Phillies are in a situation where I think they’re still the team to beat, but there are question marks about the health of their pitching staff. You also have the Mets who are I don’t even know what they are anymore. And with that in mind, there are two teams that should be looking long and hard about the who they’re going to be in 2026. And one of them, I think, has woken up and said, “Hey, wait a minute. All it takes is the Phillies to regress a little bit and the Mets to continue pulling a wy coyote and we can win this darn thing.” And guess what? There’s another team that should be thinking the exact same thing. All right, let’s hear from our good friends over at Game Time, shall we? Now, the World Cup is finally coming back to North America. This is for the first time since 1994. And with 48 teams, for the first time ever, it’s going to be massive. But let’s be honest, getting tickets is usually the hardest part. That’s why the Game Time app, it’s clutch. It’s clutch. 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That is Game Time. We talk about teams that can be a surprising regressing team. I just have to point to the Atlanta Braves who just a few years ago were one of those, you know, write them in inc. They’re going to be a playoff team and then they were one win away from being a playoff team just, you know, I mean, they did make the playoffs on the the one game uh the double header they played against the Mets. And then going into this year, they looked like, okay, they’re going to continue to be a steady contender, but they fell apart and were basically a non-factor, which is another thing that made Met fans so frustrated was that the Braves were not filling one of those spots in the playoff picture. A team that has been a regular division contender fell out altogether. But the Braves off season has been interesting and the fact that they signed Robert Suarez, a pitcher who I think should get a lot more attention. He was fabulous for the San Diego Padres’s. And he is now going to be the closer for the Atlanta Braves. And they brought in Riiel Glacius. They signed one of my mom’s favorite players, Mike Estreky. And they brought back his son Kim. Now, the Braves are not they don’t remind me of the team that, you know, was a major penning contender for a bunch of years, but they’re doing smart things. What does Yusky do? Yreky gives them some outfield depth and gives them some depth of their lineup in case Ronald Akuni Jr. needs to take a day off at the DH. Mauricio Dilon means that he can give the infield depth for Kim or Azie Albies when they’re a team with a lot of veterans. They can have that bit of depth so they’re not driving their team into the ground. Plus, you know what? They I still I think they have enough decent pitching, especially if they could squeeze one more really good year out of Chris Sale. But they’re doing things if not big and sexy move. I think Suarez is a big and sexy move quite frankly, but they’re doing some things with a team that I can’t help but think they’re saying for new manager Walt Weiss, yeah, yeah, we still got some talent on this team. We still got players on this team who could potentially do well moving forward and they have a good bullpen now. They still have some good young pitching on the team. And with that, they’re taking a look at positioning themselves as saying, “Last year was a fluke. Last year, we had teams, players had rotten, rotten seasons, and this year, well, if they just give themselves a little bit of depth and a little bit of wiggle room for their for their lineup. This is a team that if they bounce back, they will have a quality year and potentially if one of those two teams I mentioned at the top fall on their face. You know what? They can go a long way. I love their bullpen. I love Atlanta’s bullpen. I think it’s really good. Now that starting pitching depth, it means they’re going to have to bounce back for some injuries. But if they go in and sign Framber Valdez, if they sweep in and sign Valdez over the Mets, and you know what, if you take a look in the Schwelmbbach and the Bryce Elders, if they have bounced back years and pitch well, then suddenly their pitching staff will look like one of the better ones. And it will just take one or two injuries to a veteran and potentially injuryprone Philadelphia squad, especially if they don’t have Nola pitching well again. and you don’t know what Wheeler looks like coming back. Do you know what? Then you’re looking at a team that could put play very well. Now, I brought up Castanos. There’s a team, there actually two teams that I think should be trying to trade for uh Castanos, who doesn’t really have a spot on the Philadelphia roster anymore. And one of those teams are the Marlins. The Marlins the second half of last year were really good. They were a quality team. Now they have they’re going into this year with Edward Cabrera, Ryan Weathers, Yuri Perez, Sadi Alcantra, and they are having a they’re a team that has a lot of pitching depth and could potentially trade from that depth to build upon their lineup that they have. And that seems to be the key for them. Now, I’ve said I’ve been on here before. I think the Marlins should be in on virtually any quality major league bat who is potentially available to plug into that lineup. I think they should get a full-time catcher and move Augustine Ramirez from behind home plate and roll the dice that Kyle Sters and Jesus Sanchez well Star Wars had a terrific year last year and hoping that you know you know Sanchez and the auto Lopezes of the world could get some big hits for them but any major league bat including a Castanos that you put into that lineup even if it means costing one of their pitchers I wouldn’t trade Edward Cabrera for Castellianos. It’ probably be a lot cheaper to get him, but I think Cabrera should be dealt as I said the other day to Baltimore and try to pry loose one of their one of their key young players who have fallen short and could use a change of scenery. if they trade a couple of players they don’t really need for Castanos and add I don’t know Kobe Mayo and someone else as I’m from Baltimore for Cabrera add two decent bats all of a sudden the Marlins with their pitching staff and the fact this was a team that got to the postseason just a couple years ago could be the exact type of team like the Royals were in 2024 like Cincinnati was last year. Maybe not to win the World Series, but to build on the team and move forward to a playoff spot, which would, by the way, if they make the playoffs in 2026, it’ll be their third postseason appearance this decade. That’s better than the Mets. It’s better than the Angels. It’s uh I think it’s on par with the Cubs, you know. It’s, you know, it’s on par with the Red Sox. You know, this is this is a team that is young, had a phenomenal second half, and should try to add major league bats. When there’s a surprise in the results of the season, it tends to be because one team regressed or got old, got hurt, and another team fortified them and had players play above their heads. Now, the Mets, I don’t know what they’re doing. The Phillies say, “We want to keep doing exactly what we’ve been doing, and assuming age doesn’t matter.” The Braves are saying, “Hey, let’s improve some spots and take our chances because everyone thought we were going to be better last year.” And the Marlins should be looking around, not trying to rebuild, but rather trying to build upon what is already there. And if we look back at the end of the 2026 season and see Atlanta and Miami as surprise teams in the postseason, I want you to remember this episode that I recorded on the 16th day of December 2025. the top two teams in the National League East will probably well I think the Phillies are still the team to beat. But the scenario that has them not having a terrific season is very easy to imagine. Why? Because time is undefeated. Now, someone’s going to say I’m ridiculous and stupid because that’s what the listeners of this show do. But I’m not wrong. There’s always a team that underperforms and a team that overperforms. Now, the Braves and the Marlins could be that exact type of team that slips into October because they were prepared to overperform. And thanks so much for tuning into lockdown be I said turning I meant say tuning. Now to one of this upcoming shows I’ll be talking about the Red Sox strange season. going to be talking about what’s happening with the Angels and I have an upcoming show where I talk about the players who should be in the Hall of Fame right now. Make sure you subscribe and file locked on MLB so you get all the latest episode of Files of Locked on MB pods and follow me at Sully Baseball podcast. Now if you need a last minute holiday gift or someone keeps asking what you want, give the gift of Sully. Make it easy. Ask for the everyday club. Add free episodes of this show. Exclusive Discord server access and more. Subscription will be gifted through lockedonmlb.com. Oh no, I’m sorry. Locked on mlb.supcast.com. Flawless ad read right now. For those of you on video, we’ll send you the first ever 247 national lockdown podcast network YouTube channel. And on audio, make sure to make us your first listen. And let’s get to the trivia question, shall we? Who was the Montreal Expose last All-Star game representative? The exp There’s whispers that people want to bring the Expos back. And there’s that fabulous documentary, Who Killed the Montreal Expos on Netflix. Check it out. Talking about the Mets and the Phillies, strange off seasons that may open the door for fun in Atlanta and in Miami. This has been Locked on MLB. I am your host Paul Francis Sullivan. Please call me Sully.

Can the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets maintain their grip on the NL East, or will age and identity crises open the door for surprise contenders? Sully explores how the Phillies’ veteran-heavy core, led by Bryce Harper, faces mounting urgency to capture a World Series before time runs out, while the Mets reel from key departures and pitching uncertainty, leaving fans anxious about their direction.

Discussion highlights include the Braves’ shrewd offseason moves—like adding Robert Suarez and Mike Yastrzemski—which could fuel a bounce-back under Walt Weiss, and the Miami Marlins’ potential to capitalize with young pitching and bold trades. Key topics: the Phillies’ injury-risk rotation, the Mets’ power outage post-Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo, and the Marlins’ case for acquiring Nick Castellanos. Who will rise if the favorites falter—and are the Braves or Marlins poised for an NL East shake-up?

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