Through most of his career (including playoffs):
1–39 when his trailed by 7 or more points entering the 4th quarter.

38 comments

  1. No only bcuz he wins so damn much and isnt in the position to be down that much in 4th most of the time statistically speaking..

  2. Not really, I’d have to look more into the history of those circumstances but if it were anything like today, injuries probably played a huge part in that.

    This year was supposed to be a bridge year, they over performed and it’s been a lot of fun to watch despite all of our injuries.

  3. Kyle is an amazing coach, but this is one of his flaws. He has to win his way, which means he has to front run to have a good chance of winning. It’s something he can do better on.

    Prepare to get downvoted though, people can’t handle this kind of critical take here lol.

  5. I mean that sounds bad on face value but what are other coaches record down 7+ in the 4th? I’m sure Shanahan is at the bottom but is it as rare and it’s being implied?

  7. His player development is frustrating between running CMC into the ground and not playing Gurrendo a little more. Not playing Jordan Watkins more when Pearsall was out all those games, because we probably could have used him last night while Pearsall was out once again. Add on to the fact of not playing Nick Martin on defense

  8. To be fair, this really just said that Shanahan loses when he’s losing. It’s hard to win when you’re 2 scores down in the 4th

  9. Hard to know what to make of it. Curious how many of those games the niners were able to tie or take the lead. Or how many of the games were pretty much out of reach entering the 4th. Edit-on it’s face it’s not a good look. 

  11. His coaching style is based nearly entirely on momentum, and when that fails to develop during any given game he struggles, to say the least.

  12. At least half of those losses are probably 2017, 2018, and 2020 when we were ass, so this stat is massively inflated. 

    Shanahan also has 2 massive 17 point halftime comebacks against the Rams in week 17 2021 and the Lions in the 2023 NFCCG. Both those games were within 7 entering the 4th quarter so they’re not captured within this stat. 

    Everyone would agree that Shanahan’s offense has never been the 2019 Chiefs, built to score 21 points in 9 minutes, but this is a mostly cherry-picked, out of context  stat. 

  14. This is always brought up but I’m always curious what other coaches stats are for this metric?

  15. It’s concerning because up until this year, he really hasn’t shown the ability to adapt. In some ways he is an ego driven coach, where he has to win his way with his scheme. Unfortunately, that ends up costing us in big games. Due to the fact the our oline generally can’t holdup to the strong Dlines we face in those big games. Hopefully he starts to realize this. Otherwise he will remain an amazing coach most of the time, and a poor coach when it matters in the big games.

  17. So we’re just going to ignore him taking us to 12-5 with the most injured roster this season? Be grateful for once geez

  18. Only idiots who think cherry picked stats mean anything. We started the year with a massive dead cap and followed that up with way to many key player injuries. We did very well with why we had and we are still in the playoffs? We went against probably the best defense to be in the playoffs and had a bad offensive game against them. Some of you all call yourselfs fans but you need to get off Reddit cause I can tell you the one power we don’t have is coaching. Stupid ass post.

  19. I think this might be tied to his run first style. His lack of investment in the Oline is fine as long as we can run and operate off of play action. But when he is behind, and the Oline isn’t protected by forcing the defense to respect the run game, the Oline can’t hold up against a pass rush.

  20. Which coach has a great record under these circumstances??

    I don’t care at all. His offense has always been built to run the ball, get a lead and keep it. And it’s been damn effective in the whole. You can’t have everything

  21. Can I see other records of head coaches? I can’t imagine that it’s much better for many others.

    Since this stat gets posted with no other context here’s one:

    McVay is 3-25 when down by 7+. That’s somewhat comparable. You don’t really expect teams to make large comebacks late all the time.

  22. That’s a crazy stat. With a sample size that’s huge you can’t really deny it’s a problem. That said, still my coach.

  23. I say this every day and I’ll say it till I’m blue in the face and y’all can downvote me all you want

    The. 49ers. Will. Never. Win. A. Super. Bowl. Under. Kyle. Shanahan. As. A. Coach

  24. We knew this already from last year.

    There are no substitutes for talents. You can’t squeeze oil out of rocks. Under him, he was able to put two different QBs in the SB.

  25. I mean, rather have Shanny or another coach like Tomsula or Singletary days. 🤷🏻‍♂️

  26. Yeah I’m super concerned OP. I think you should march into training camp this week and takeover things.

  27. Why do we need to be concerned? He’s a coach who’s gotten us to 4 NFCCG and 2 SBs and has along the way built great offenses.

    Sure I’d like him to do better when down in the 4th quarter but he’s a great coach who has my full support and should have all of ours as well. I mean, it’s hard for any coach to come back in the 4th down 7+ points

  31. It’s probably because.when his schemes fall apart or the d has his number it’s hard for the team to adjust. We haven’t ever had the personnel at wr or qb that could pull wins out of thin air.

  32. The man has been great in his time here. You could find an unappealing state for any coach anywhere.

    He’s gotten us deep into the playoffs 4 times including 4 NFC championship games and 2 Super Bowls and almost won both of them. Plus an NFC Championship loss that was largely the result of Purdy’s injury.

    I’d take Shanny over just any coach in the league.

  33. We aren’t a throw first team. Despite being a gun slinger at heart that isn’t Purdy’s strength.

    If trailing and we have to move away from the run, we lose. Just how the team is constructed.

  34. I think it shows an unwillingness to adapt and overcome. But what other options do we have. He had 1 week to prep for the Seahawks and him and Saleh got embarrassed on every level.

  35. Id like to know how this stat compares to other coaches before I jump to conclusions.

  37. ##This stat is a textbook example of cherry picking and bad math.

    Trailing by 7 or more entering the 4th quarter already filters the sample down to games that are usually either blowouts or situations where win probability is extremely low across the league. Most NFL teams almost never win those games. Treating all of those situations as equal tells you very little about coaching quality.

    There is also a major selection bias problem. During Shanahan’s good years, the 49ers are rarely trailing by 7 or more entering the 4th quarter at all. They are usually leading. Those seasons barely contribute to this stat.

    During the early rebuilding years, when the roster was bad and the team lost frequently, almost every loss naturally falls into the down 7 or more in the 4th bucket. That means the stat is dominated by bad team seasons and barely reflects the competitive ones.

    So what is this actually measuring. Mostly how often a bad team stays bad late in games, not whether a coach can or cannot execute meaningful comebacks.

    If you want to evaluate late game coaching, you would need to control for score and time, isolate one possession games, and compare results to league wide baselines. Without that context, the number does not say much.

    It masks how often his teams control games and exaggerates losses from years when the roster simply was not competitive. It is not insightful. It is just a misleading framing of a very narrow game state.

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