Ran into this article on goalie pull times. Not sure if times have changed or what model is being used but I feel like these are way too early in the game to play with empty net.
Ran into this article on goalie pull times. Not sure if times have changed or what model is being used but I feel like these are way too early in the game to play with empty net.
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Last night was nuts to me. We were hardly in control of the puck that whole period and it was 50/50 on whether we get the puck from that draw. Why not wait until we have control to pull Greaves? Instead we lost the draw and the game in a matter of seconds.
High risk. But a risk pretty much everyone must take.
I had the pleasure of working as a very very junior role on a paper in college that covered pulling the goaling.
The idea is around variance. Lose by 1, lose by 100 an L is all the same. Pulling the goalie allows for a much greater range in outcomes (obviously) because of the extra stick as well as the lack of goalie. When a goalie is pulled the variance to the game increase substantially which is what the losing team would want if they want any chance of winning. Sloan MIT Sports Analytics Conference on YouTube and their website has many articles actually indicating that losing teams should pull the goalie EARLIER and the data does support that however coaches fear for their jobs and will not play that level of analytics because to fans, lose by 1/ lose by 100 does not really apply.
It’s been known for a long time that pulling the goalie early is statistically the way to go, this isn’t the first article or study on it by a long shot. It “feels” wrong, but so do lots of things when you break them down by the numbers.
That said, I think situational awareness the exact moment to do it is important. You don’t do it regardless of the time left when you don’t have control of the puck, for example.