I think Isaac on Locked on made a similar comparison but he just talked about flemings all vid and dismissed the other 3. P.S. Sorry for the AI image, im too lazy to photoshop stuff

What the Mavs actually need from a guard:

  • We are the worst 3 point shooting team in the nba and take the 5th least 3s as well – need a volume 3 point shooter

  • We have 0 creation especially in the half court setting, kyrie isnt a half court offense generator and nembhard is too much of a liability on defense to use him longterm – needs to be able to create offense particularly from a half court setting

  • We have no poa defender currently and when kyrie comes back the guard defense gets worse – needs to be a poa defender or at least have the IQ to funnel drivers into the paint

  • Kyrie is getting old so we need someone to replacement for him as well in the future – needs to be able to survive both as a primary and secondary guard in terms of usage

Profiles of each guard:

Mikel Brown (Pro comp – Taller Darius Garland or Trae Young):

Positives

  • Good gravity and spacer – attempts a lot of threes

  • Foul Drawing

  • Good height at 6'5 at wingspan of 6'8

  • Passing vision – is the most 'creative' passer in this group

Negatives

  • Retarded shooting efficiency – 46.2 EFG / 55.2 TS / .268 3pt

  • Defensive liability -> -0.2 dbpm

  • injury concerns already

  • limited off ball value – doesnt cut or do the dirty work for a guard.

Kingston Flemings (Pro comp – De’Aaron Fox / Derrick Rose with more defense):

Positives:

  • Best defender by far -> 5.9 DBPM and averages 2+ steals a game, genuine poa defender

  • Great at transition in both scoring and passing

  • Great decision making -> 3.1 asst/to ratio

Negatives:

  • Doesnt create offense in the half court – will just hand it off when play slows down

  • Needs driving lanes to score and is not a volume 3 point scorer

  • Shooting mechanics are questionable although holding up so far

Labaron Philon (Pro comp – Smaller Shai without the foul baiting):

Positives:

  • Best half court creator and IQ among the 4

  • Insane offensive impact -> OBPM 9.8 (triple threat scorer)

  • High volume scorer with efficiency at all 3 levels

  • Functional defense with good IQ -> DBPM 1.2, 1.7 stocks in college

  • Proven as a primary and secondary guard in his 2 years of college.

Negatives:

  • Highest turnover rate -> 16.3% and below average asst/to ratio -> 1.8

  • Very high usage and isnt proven to play off-ball

  • One year older than others in terms of college years (Tho he's only 4 months older than brown)

  • Light for his size (175 lbs)

Darius Acuff (Pro comp – Mike Conley):

Positives:

  • Best shooter of the 4 -> 42% on 3s at high volume

  • Decent in the P&R under Calipari who runs a complex offense -> 3.1 Asst/TO ratio

  • Good weight for his size (190lbs)

  • Highest floor due to shooting gurantees and role as a creator

Negatives:

  • Defense is questionable -> -0.2 DBPM but not as bad as brown

  • Limited at scoring at the rim – 64.3% Close 2

  • Can't self create and relies on others for spacing advantages

  • Least athletic of the 4

Analysis:

Mikel brown is elimated solely on defensive concerns since we cant have another guard next to kyrie who cant play defense. Mikel is great next to a 3&D player like Max but we dont have that gurantee yet and Brown has back injuries which arent promising in the long run. Plus he's a generational shot chucker when the competition gets hard.

Acuff is also eliminated due to not fixing our half court offense issues. His playstyle can lead to more stagnant possessions while also being a subpar defender. If we had prime Kyrie then acuff would be fine but still isnt the best answer here. Plus a lot of his offense is focused on bully-ball and that doesnt translate to the nba.

Flemings is a great two-way prospect but isnt good for us for 2 major reasons:

  • He's a transition merchant for both scoring and creation and gets bogged down in slower games. We already have Coop as the transition creator and scorer, having another guard do the same thing is redundant

  • Doenst have nba level shooting, most of his points come from explosive driving and finishing in the paint. He needs space to this and our team will literally kill him with our lack of spacing. His 3 point shot is there but its low volume – we need high volume.

Philon fits the best: he's the best at half court offense and is a 3 level scorer while being very efficient from all areas. His skillset translates better since he doesnt use physicality to get points. He's also the second best defender here and has a great game IQ. His problems right now are turnover percent and high usage rate but he's played behind a lead guard before in his freshman year and was still considered at first round pick.

 

Philon > Flemings > Brown > Acuff

Considering that Flemings is projected to 5 while Philon is projected to go 9th we're more likely to get philon anyway. If we get the 3rd pick we def draft boozer, if we get the 4th or 5th pick we should prolly trade down to 7-8.

Google Sheets with full stats {Torvik}

31 comments

  1. I would not consider Kyrie when making this pick. I don’t watch any college ball but if Brown is the best available I’ll take him.

  3. Philon has been a great 3pt shooter this year but has started to cool off a little. And he wasn’t one last year so you believe that this year is not a fluke if you’re gonna take him above Flemings imo.

    Walking away with either would be amazing though

  4. The order is actually quite clear:

    1. Flemings

    2. Philon

    3. Mikel Brown Jr.

    4. Acuff

    Unless we get lucky and get Peterson…

  5. Acuff is very small which is concerning given how small guards are being treated in modern nba. Kevin O says Kingston is also closer to 6’1 than the listed 6’4. I guess Mikel or Philon

  7. >Mikel brown is elimated solely on defensive concerns since we cant have another guard next to kyrie who cant play defense.

    You do not go into the draft with a high pick with this kind of thinking. You take best available player. The only guy on this roster that I would take into consideration, the fit, is Flagg.

  13. Acuff. Calipari’s resume with NBA guards speaks for itself. I really like Flemings too.

    The shooting splits worry me with Philon and Brown in different ways. Philon’s almost feels too good to be true once he gets to the league and Brown’s are so terrible idk if he can bounce back.

  14. As someone who really likes Philon, and has watched them all in person at some point, a lot of what you’re discounting the others on is stuff Philon struggled with his freshman year, too. And at times are things he was even worse at, so you’ve got to use some more perspective. There are also things Philon has gotten worse at year to year that cause some concerns, namely defense, but his offense has taken such a large leap it can easily be contributed to him shifting his focus. Plus Bama plays like 0 defense anyway. 

    It’s still very early in the season to be discounting Mikel, who projects to have the highest ceiling. Yes his shooting was in a slump when he went out with injury, yes he’s currently dealing with a back injury. Future good shooters have come into the league with worse % shooting (Trae Young funny enough, one of his comps, shot 39% from the field in conference play) and people thought MPJs back was so fucked he’d be in the wheelchair league by now. 

    Acuff has been playing some incredible basketball and has helped his stock the most, especially taking that next step as conference play starts & he gets more comfortable with college level basketball. 

    Flemings you already spoke about a lot of his strengths, but a big thing you’re hung up on is “volume.” You gotta keep in mind Houston, as a team, is never going to have any “volume” shooters at PG. That is not their game plan, that is not their philosophy. Bama is shooting 50% more 3s than them & playing at a much faster pace, and that’s fine. If anything, Philons strength over Flemings should be that he plays in a system closer to today’s NBA offenses & easier to evaluate how he would translate.

    I would personally be happy with any of the 4, it’s a GREAT draft to need a PG as there are 5 great options with Peterson being a cut above the rest. But if I had to rank them I’d have it: 

    Flemings/Mikel/Philon/Acuff. Before the season I wouldn’t have Acuff in this discussion, but that’s why we play the games & he has been playing a hell of a good game. 

  15. I wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t even draft a pg. I can see point Flagg being a permanent thing next season and in this scenario I’d like to see a Caleb Wilson/Lively front court. If we land 7-10 then get Yaxel.

  22. Just not a fan of the small guards. Flemings is 6’1″ according to O’Connor (mentioned on slightly biased show). 

  28. Maybe I’m a homer… woo pig, but Acuff has been nothing but amazing. Pure scorer and a fantastic passer. He will be a top 10 pick

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