From 2015-2024, Over 50% of first round QBs with 25 or more college starts are currently their team’s undisputed starter whereas none of the QBs with under 20 starts are. College experience and sample size for evaluation are extremely important factors in the likelihood of a Quarterback panning out
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If you are going to even consider drafting an inexperienced QB with a small sample size in the first round, those small amount of games should be defined by a very consistent elite level of performance. This doesn’t mean that it’s impossible for a QB with less than 20 starts to work out, but you can’t honestly expect the Jets to develop an inexperienced college QB which is something that even far more well run teams have trouble, and have consistently failed to do. Also, yes, college experience isn’t all that matters and there will always be a chance at ending up with a Paxton Lynch or Kenny Pickett, but those examples don’t change the fact that choosing a QB with 25 or more starts has a far more likelihood of success than less games.
RIP Ty Simpson
Glad we couldn’t take Dante Moore too soon.
JJ McCarthy and Zach with 28 while Maye and Allen have 26 and 25 respectively makes this all seem kinda pointless. The top guy being Mariota as well. Unless the lesson is just “don’t take a guy with under 20 starts” instead of “more = better”, then fair enough. I think we all know that there will eventually be an elite NFL QB with under 20 college starts. It will obviously happen.
That said, fuck Ty Simpson. Want nothing to do with taking a QB this year.
So basically, if a QB hasn’t made 20 starts, don’t even think about it. Murray seems to be a bit of an outlier.
You want a QB prospect to have at least somewhere in the mid 20s before you seriously consider them.
I find Pickett’s EPA to be interesting. He’s not good, but less bad than you would think.
It’s hard to take the statistical significance of this list seriously when Josh Allen and Drake Maye are at the very bottom.
There’s more green at the top, sure, but there are so many other variables that could explain that then simply college stars good, no college starts bad.
This is why we can’t draft Dante Moore
Need to also put into account the system they ran in college.
Its all about seeing if guys can replicate or improve from their past year, lets say Stroud only had his NFL rookie season as a reference, if we translate it to college it would be around 14 games or so played, most People would say generational pick give 3 First round picks for him, now if you add his next 2 years, you can see he would still be a really good prospect but not at the level he showed on his First season.
I believe with 2 seasons (around 24 games) it should be more than enough to know if the guy has a good base or not, the key is that he has multiple seasons so its not Just a fluke, also improvement from season to season is important, im not talking about stats, but about his footwork/feeling of the game/Ball placement/etc.
Take a flyer on Chambliss or Nussmeier in the 3rd if you can.
Also Collage football has changed a bit in the last 2-5 years with players coming out earlier and earlier also the portal with players moving around and changing systems doesn’t also help qb development. so even a player with 36 games but across 3 different systems may no longer fit this tread/statistic… ultimately whether they play alot or a little you have to decide based on the sample size if they can process the game and deal with pressure, arm strength and size you dont need games to assess. But the players ability to read defense and deal with pressure that is the risk with less than 25 games…
The significance is somewhat misleading. A lot of the guys with more college experience are with their second or third team. It’s all about development and the Jets have been lacking in that department for decades.
Paxton Lynch, forgot about him.
I’m not mad we aren’t drafting Moore, I’m just not thrilled with the FA QB class this year. It seems more of a forgone conclusion 2026 will be another bad year, and 2027 we had to start over, again, with a new HC and rookie QB. If it was “we don’t get Moore but guys like Baker, Brisset, Winston, or even Murray were out on the open market, you can make the clean pivot. I can’t be thrilled with mariota and wink martindale
Id imagine we are talking about Simpson here.
I feel like you also need to factor in who he played. Lynch played G5 teams. Pickett was at Pitt when the ACC was really not a good conference at all other than Clemson. I want to give Ty the benefit of the doubt because for an entire season he practiced against a Saban defense in 2023. He stuck around and learned DaBoer’s offense and he played against elite linebackers and corners in the NFL. Ty played against 4 of the top corners in the draft in Hood, McCoy, Cesse and Delane and all 3 games he balled. His receivers dropped 30 passes this year as Ryan Williams fell off a cliff and dunked his hands in oil before every game.
Ty’s biggest concern right now has to be durability.
But also, I think grabbing a good QB Coach and signing a good vet that you dont have to worry to much about–Cousins, Jimmy G, Jameis, Mac Jones (for a 5th), then we can really see this work with Simpson.