On the Celtics 3 remaining roster spots

I have been trying to figure out how the Celtics can possibly stay below the luxury tax while filling out their remaining roster spots. In doing so, I believe I have figured out the path forward for them.

Feb 5: dump the salaries of 3 non rotation guys in Xavier Tillman, Chris Boucher, Josh Minott. Receive rookie John Tonje in return. Tonje is important to this strategy, will get back to that. (also I'm pretty bummed about Minott but that's a different conversation)

Feb 19: Sign John Tonje and Max Shulga to 10 day contracts

March 1: let the 10 day contracts run their course.

March 15: Sign John Tonje and Max Shulga to new 10 day contracts

March 25: Sign one of them to ROS contracts. (I predict Shulga but we will see) Sign any other player to a ROS contract. At this point we could afford any free agent, including a 10 year vet. Brad said we would sign a ball handler to one of our remaining roster spots, so unless Shulga is that ball handler (almost 6 apg in the G league), then this player will likely be a ball handler.

Last day of season: Sign Ron Harper Jr. to a standard contract, allowing him to play in the playoffs.

The math works out as follows (see the note on Proration below to understand where these numbers come from):

Tax room remaining today: 842,292

10 day rookie contract luxury tax cost: 1,272,870*(10/174) = 73,153.45. 4 of those works out to 292,613.80, leaving us with 549,678.21 in tax room.

Signing a "drafted rookie" for the rest of the season on March 25 costs 1,272,870*(19/174) =138,991.55. Signing a 10 year vet (I'm not positive we will sign a 10 year vet at this point but it can't be MORE expensive than that, assuming a minimum salary) costs 3,634,153*(19/174)=396,832.80. Both of these moves leaves us with 13,853.86 in luxury tax room.

Signing Ron Harper Jr. on the last day of the season (exact same move we did with JD Davison last year), costs 2,378,870*(1/174) = 13671.67. Leaving us with 182.19 in luxury tax room at the end of the year.

I believe Harper will be signed on the last day because he is already part of the rotation, but has enough two way game eligibility to be active until the end of the season. We will likely sign him at the last minute to allow him to be active in the playoffs, and get the Celtics into roster compliance.

I'll list out some of the CBA rules that are most pertinent here:

– Tax Variance: this is why I believe we got rookie John Tonje back in the Chris Boucher salary dump. Free agents with <2y experience "cost" the same as a 2y vet against your luxury tax obligations. However, "drafted" rookies on your roster cost their actual salaries. We only had one of those guys left in Max Shulga after signing Amari Williams to a ROS contract at the trade deadline. So John Tonje allows us to skate to March 25 with the fewest possible luxury tax obligations.

– Roster Limits: "A team can carry as few as 11 active players for up to two weeks at a time or up to 28 total days during a regular season." The cheapest way to get out of luxury tax obligations is to pay people for as little time as possible. This strategy of 4 10 days to "drafted rookies" lets as much of the season go through as possible before getting to roster compliance. On the last day of the season the team must get to "full" roster compliance at 15.

– Proration: for cap, tax, and apron purposes, a prorated contract costs the same as the number of days remaining in the regular season divided by the total number of days in the regular season. There are 174 days in this regular season, and 67 days remaining in the season on Feb 5. You can see that math above. Note that 10 day contracts are for 10 days or 3 games, whichever is longer, and each 10 day window above (Feb 19 – March 1 and March 15 – March 25) the Celtics have 3 or more games scheduled.

– Luxury Tax Penalties are calculated at end of season: most people know this already, but dumping Tillman, Boucher, and Minott completely obviates the Celtics of their salary for luxury tax penalties, even though they paid them until the trade deadline.

This strategy allows the Celtics to participate in the buyout market on March 25, while remaining below the luxury tax line. Note I linked to HoopsHype for most of these, but if you're into this kind of thing I highly recommend Larry Coon's CBA FAQ: http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap17.htm