The hate that some of the prospect nerds (looking at you, Eno Sarris) had for him was odd.
What I find interesting is that all of the scouts and analysts have been pretty much spot on in the pre-signing analysis of Murakami in everything *except the actual results*.
The story on him was that he would whiff a lot, take a lot of walks, and absolutely crush the ball when he did make contact. It’s just that people were concerned that it would play consistently in the Majors, because really only Joey Gallo had that kind of profile and it worked up until it didn’t.
I certainly don’t blame them for their concern, it was a very high risk, very high reward type of signing. So far, he has had stretches of the good and the bad, too:
||PA|BB%|K%|BB/K|AVG|OBP|SLG|OPS|ISO|BABIP|wRC|wRAA|wOBA|wRC+
|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|
First 8 games|34|14.7%|35.3%|0.4|.25|.353|.679|1.032|.429|.231|7|2.8|.423|171
Next 8 games|31|25.8%|32.3%|0.8|.043|.290|.043|.334|.000|.077|1|-3.0|.196|18
Next 6 games|28|25.0%|32.1%|0.8|.333|.500|.905|1.405|.571|.375|9|5.6|.575|274
Obviously these are ***very*** small sample sizes, and swings over stretches like this aren’t exclusive to Murakami, but it does help to visualize the wild variance of a guy with 60% of his PAs ending in one of the three true outcomes.
As someone who has followed to Swallows since the time of Wladimir Balentien, I can’t say that I wasn’t worried Murakami wouldn’t translate well. While I’m pretty stoked that he has so far, I don’t think I’m quite sold that he’ll continue to dominate all season (though I would love for him to, both as a Swallows follower and someone whose majority of friends are Sox fans). At this point, though, I do think he is going to succeed at some level in the Majors and not be an average player or worse.
He has 15 hits this season and over half (8) are home runs! He’s the reincarnation of Adam Dunn.
his stats are not sustainable
pitchers will eventually figure him out and they will properly adjust to him
then he will fall off a cliff
you can expect the downfall either this season or the next season
He’s MASHING
I watch npb every day. I always knew he would succeed here. there were a lot of haters!
At the last game I was at I commented that I was surprised he was only hitting like .160 and on fucking cue my guy goes yard. I love this man.
> Here’s a little secret, though: This matters less than you think.
People have been trying way too hard to make strikeouts/whiffs seem vitally important, even more important than allowing/scoring runs.
They’re not, and they never have been.
At a very high level, the stats are almost a no brainer. He doesn’t swing at balls, and then he hits home runs off of strikes. So either you walk him or you throw it in the zone and roll the dice.
This is a gross oversimplification, but the last few paragraphs of the article kinda say the same thing. If I told my non baseball fan friends this, they would just be like “I thought that is how baseball is supposed to work” haha.
But for real, the plate discipline is really interesting. The idea of him trying to go yard every time is fun and makes me pay a bit closer attention every time he gets up to bat
I am rooting for him but think people are jumping way too quick to say everybody was wrong and he’s a stud. It’s not just the small sample size but we’ve seen it so many times where a rookie comes in and the league and sets it on fire before the league adjusts.
I mean before balanced schedule and much inter league even Sergio Romo used to go from division to division with his schtick until they got used to him.
League will adjust to Murakami but what matters is how Murakami adjusts back.
I WILL be getting a Kami jersey when I go to a Sox game this summer!
11 comments
The hate that some of the prospect nerds (looking at you, Eno Sarris) had for him was odd.
What I find interesting is that all of the scouts and analysts have been pretty much spot on in the pre-signing analysis of Murakami in everything *except the actual results*.
The story on him was that he would whiff a lot, take a lot of walks, and absolutely crush the ball when he did make contact. It’s just that people were concerned that it would play consistently in the Majors, because really only Joey Gallo had that kind of profile and it worked up until it didn’t.
I certainly don’t blame them for their concern, it was a very high risk, very high reward type of signing. So far, he has had stretches of the good and the bad, too:
||PA|BB%|K%|BB/K|AVG|OBP|SLG|OPS|ISO|BABIP|wRC|wRAA|wOBA|wRC+
|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|
First 8 games|34|14.7%|35.3%|0.4|.25|.353|.679|1.032|.429|.231|7|2.8|.423|171
Next 8 games|31|25.8%|32.3%|0.8|.043|.290|.043|.334|.000|.077|1|-3.0|.196|18
Next 6 games|28|25.0%|32.1%|0.8|.333|.500|.905|1.405|.571|.375|9|5.6|.575|274
Obviously these are ***very*** small sample sizes, and swings over stretches like this aren’t exclusive to Murakami, but it does help to visualize the wild variance of a guy with 60% of his PAs ending in one of the three true outcomes.
As someone who has followed to Swallows since the time of Wladimir Balentien, I can’t say that I wasn’t worried Murakami wouldn’t translate well. While I’m pretty stoked that he has so far, I don’t think I’m quite sold that he’ll continue to dominate all season (though I would love for him to, both as a Swallows follower and someone whose majority of friends are Sox fans). At this point, though, I do think he is going to succeed at some level in the Majors and not be an average player or worse.
He has 15 hits this season and over half (8) are home runs! He’s the reincarnation of Adam Dunn.
his stats are not sustainable
pitchers will eventually figure him out and they will properly adjust to him
then he will fall off a cliff
you can expect the downfall either this season or the next season
He’s MASHING
I watch npb every day. I always knew he would succeed here. there were a lot of haters!
At the last game I was at I commented that I was surprised he was only hitting like .160 and on fucking cue my guy goes yard. I love this man.
> Here’s a little secret, though: This matters less than you think.
People have been trying way too hard to make strikeouts/whiffs seem vitally important, even more important than allowing/scoring runs.
They’re not, and they never have been.
At a very high level, the stats are almost a no brainer. He doesn’t swing at balls, and then he hits home runs off of strikes. So either you walk him or you throw it in the zone and roll the dice.
This is a gross oversimplification, but the last few paragraphs of the article kinda say the same thing. If I told my non baseball fan friends this, they would just be like “I thought that is how baseball is supposed to work” haha.
But for real, the plate discipline is really interesting. The idea of him trying to go yard every time is fun and makes me pay a bit closer attention every time he gets up to bat
I am rooting for him but think people are jumping way too quick to say everybody was wrong and he’s a stud. It’s not just the small sample size but we’ve seen it so many times where a rookie comes in and the league and sets it on fire before the league adjusts.
I mean before balanced schedule and much inter league even Sergio Romo used to go from division to division with his schtick until they got used to him.
League will adjust to Murakami but what matters is how Murakami adjusts back.
I WILL be getting a Kami jersey when I go to a Sox game this summer!
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