Kent Wilson Putting into Words What Scares Me About this “Retool”

8 comments

1. To add some additional info backing up the article. Since 2007 the only teams who have drafted less than the Flames are Seattle, Vegas, and Pittsburgh. This ownership group is the last to admit they need to rebuild and the first to think they’re done rebuilding. They have always been willing to mortgage the future if the team has a chance at the playoffs.

   I don’t believe that the ownership/management has learnt for their previous decisions, and their (frankly ridiculous) 2-3 year retool plan that they have been putting out is evidence of that.

   Let me be clear, I want the Flames to be good, and it sucks watching a shitty team. But if a retool like this was really possible more teams would be engaging in them. There is a reason that the Flames act differently from the rest of the league, it’s because they think what we’re doing is a bad idea. Yes, I know there are risks to a more extensive rebuild (please for the love of God don’t bring up Buffalo *again*) but there is a reason it is a common strategy across the league. the majority of cup winners in the past 2 decades are teams that had rebuilt significantly around a drafted core of elite talent.

   Also, trying to emulate the Dallas is unrealistic, their 2017 draft was nothing short of a miracle, and hoping for a miracle is not a plan.

   Source for the drafting forth least in the league: [Which NHL teams have drafted the best and worst since 2007? Ranking 16-1 – The Athletic](https://theathletic.com/5084336/2023/11/24/nhl-draft-ranking-best-picks/)

2. The major difference, why I’m way less worried is all the draft capital that Conroy has added. Already he’s doing smarter things than Brad did in 2013.

3. Counterpoint: Scorched earth rebuild is a horrible choice and often doesn’t work all.

4. I’m not really sure what you mean. This has been about as natural a process as we could have taken. Johnny walked, we traded chucky, than 5 ufas this year. We have a new gm with less than a year of work in. The retool will work or turn into a rebuild naturally. This is where we are

5. I worry we will end up a farm team for the bigger markets in the league. We will draft and develop the player and, just as they are peaking, leave as UFAs.

6. I think there will need to be a bottoming out process as the Flames turn over aging players to get young players, prospects, and draft picks. I think most people over-state the need to tank and become intentionally terrible to build a successful team. The bottoming out will result in some high draft picks, and you don’t need to intentionally make the team worse to accomplish that.

   The Flames are currently looking to draft around 8th overall with a 0.500 record. Being intentionally bad to get a guaranteed top 3 pick tends to require a record of 0.350 or worse. This tends to be roughly the difference between the best teams in the league to the Flames, and many years it wouldn’t even guarantee a top 3 pick.

   The problem many rebuilding teams have is they end the rebuild too early, not that they don’t bottom out deeply enough. Usually they get lucky and squeak their way into the playoffs, assume they’re ready to compete, and start making win now moves. With how Conroy has approached everything so far, I don’t think he will make this mistake. Likely, the goal is to be pushing for a playoff spot when the new arena is built not to be a contender; and there is nothing wrong with being a middling team while you’re still building towards something better. After making the playoffs for 2 or 3 consecutive seasons, I think it is time to start pushing to get better, but I would mostly focus on building from the draft until then.

7. Man, I read that headline as Kent **NILSON** there for a second. Freaked me out…

8. > For example, Jay Feaster offered Brad Richards a nine-year, $64-million US contract in the summer of 2011. Richards chose the New York Rangers and his deal eventually became one of the worst in the league.

   > In 2013, Feaster then went after RFA Ryan O’Reilly with an ill-fated two-year, $10-million per year offer sheet. Colorado matched the offer, saving the Flames GM from himself given the player would have had to pass through waivers owing to an obscure clause in the new CBA.

   Yiiiikes….the O’Reilly offersheet I know of but not the Brad Richards offer.